2023 is expected to be the hottest in the world in 125,000 years, European Union scientists said on Wednesday (8), after data showed that last month was the hottest October on record.
Last month exceeded the previous highest average temperature of October 2019 by 0.4ºC, said the deputy director of the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Samantha Burgess describing the temperature as “very extreme”.
That made 2023 “virtually certain” to be the hottest year on record, C3S said in a statement.
The heat is the result of continued greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, combined with the emergence of the natural climate pattern El Niño, which warms surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The hottest year on record is 2016 – another El Niño year – although 2023 is on track to surpass that number.
“When we combine our data with that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we can say that this is the hottest year in the last 125,000 years,” said Burgess.
Long-term data from the UN Climate Science Panel and the IPCC includes readings from sources such as ice cores, tree rings and coral deposits.
Climate change fuels increasingly destructive extremes. In 2023, this includes floods that killed thousands of people in Libya, severe heat waves in South America and the worst wildfire season on record in Canada.
Globally, the October average surface air temperature of 15.3°C was 1.7°C warmer than the October average of 1850-1900, which Copernicus defines as the pre-industrial period.
The only other month that broke the temperature record by such a large margin was September 2023.
“September really surprised us,” Burgess said. “So after the past month, it is difficult to determine whether we are in a new climate state. But now registrations continue to fall and are surprising less than they were a month ago.”
See also: High temperatures are influenced by human action
El Niño effect
The combination of human-caused climate change and naturally occurring El Niño fuels concerns that more heat-driven destruction is to come – including in Australia, which is bracing for a severe bushfire season amid hot, dry conditions.
The current El Niño weather pattern is expected to last until at least April 2024, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday.
“Most El Niño years are now record-breaking because the extra global heat from the phenomenon contributes to the steady increase in human-caused warming,” said Micha el Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania.
The scientists’ findings came to light three weeks before governments meet in Dubai for this year’s UN climate talks, known as COP28. There, almost 200 countries will negotiate stronger actions to combat climate change.
A central question at COP28 will be whether governments agree – for the first time – to phase out the burning of fossil fuels that emit carbon dioxide.
Under current plans by fossil fuel producers to extract coal, oil and gas, by 2030 global production would be more than double the levels considered consistent with meeting globally agreed goals to limit climate change, the United Nations and researchers said in a report.
Despite countries setting increasingly ambitious targets to gradually reduce emissions, so far this has not happened. Global CO2 emissions reached a record level in 2022.
“We must not allow the devastating floods, wildfires, storms and heatwaves experienced this year to become the new normal,” he said. Piers Forster climate scientist at the University of Leeds.
“By rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, we can halve the rate of warming,” he added.
Source: CNN Brasil
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