6th estimate for the 2022/23 grain harvest indicates 13.8% higher production, says Conab

Brazilian grain production in the 2022/23 harvest may reach 309.89 million tons. The performance corresponds to an increase of 13.8% compared to the previous 2021/22 harvest, which was 272.43 million tons.

Compared to the previous forecast, in February, there was a downward adjustment of 0.2% (710,000 t), as shown in the 6th Grain Harvest Survey 2022/23, by the National Supply Company (Conab), released this Thursday -Friday (9).

According to the statement from the state-owned company, almost half of the total volume is the result of soy crops, which represents a harvest of around 151.42 million tons (an increase of 20.6% compared to 2021/22, which was 125.55 million of t).

According to Conab, there was “a recovery in the productivity of crops that were affected by adverse weather conditions in the 2021/22 period”.

The president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro, said in the note that “the current estimate of oilseed production grows compared to the past cycle, but represents a negative variation of 1% in relation to the last announcement by Conab due to the intensification, in February , of the damage caused by the drought in Rio Grande do Sul. However, these losses were offset, in part, by the gains observed in Tocantins, São Paulo, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul”.

The soybean harvest is advancing in all producing regions, with percentages below when compared to the 2021/22 harvest. This slower pace is explained by different reasons, such as excessive rainfall, which makes it difficult for machinery to move through the fields.

“In addition to the rainfall during the harvest, it must be remembered that in some areas soybean planting was carried out late, as in certain producing areas in Goiás and Matopiba (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and western Bahia), while in others In these regions, there was a lower temperature, which had an impact on the development of the grain, lengthening the crop cycle,” explained Conab.

This delay brings impacts on the sowing of corn 2nd crop, which has already sown 63.6% of the area planned for the crop throughout the country, noted the state-owned company. In the same period last year, this index reached around 75%.

Even so, the Company projects an increase in production of 11.3% compared to last year’s harvest (85.89 million tons), possibly reaching 95.6 million tons.

“It is important to highlight that sowing corn outside the ideal window can increase risks during the development of crops, and there is no guarantee of how the crop will develop in adverse weather conditions”, highlights the superintendent of Agricultural Information at Conab, Candice Romero Santos.

In the first cereal harvest, the expected harvest is approximately 26.76 million tons, 6.9% above the 2021/22 harvest (25.03 million tons). Considering the three annual corn harvests, total production should be 124.68 million tons, an increase of 6.9% compared to 2021/22 (113.13 million tons).

Another important 2nd crop crop, cotton, is already completely sown, Conab said. There was an increase of 4% in the area, reaching 1.66 million hectares. With this, the expectation is that the lint harvest will reach 2.78 million tons, an increase of 9% compared to 2021/22 (2.55 million tons).

For rice, production is estimated at 9.88 million tons, 8.4% less than the volume produced in the past season (10.79 million tons), “due to the reduction in area, combined with adverse weather conditions, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, the largest producing State”.

In the case of beans, Conab estimates a harvest of 2.92 million tons, adding the three crops, which corresponds to a drop of 2.4% compared to 2021/22 (2.99 million tons).