At dawn on January 24, a week ago, it began the Russian invasion ofUkraine, a war in the heart of Europe that few had imagined. Since then, the Russian advance has continued and hundreds of thousands of people have fled. Towards the borders with Poland and Hungary, women, the elderly and children seek refuge. The men remained in a heroic resistance led by President Zelensky. Vladimir Putin in Moscow it seems increasingly isolated. Only five countries voted against the resolution condemning the invasion at the UN and there are increasingly stronger sanctions on Russia and the choice of many, including the EU, to supply arms to Ukraine. In recent days, however, the advance has continued. Kherson, in southern Ukraine, fell to Russian forces. Mariupol is besieged and Kiev with the Russians at the gates.
“That of the last few days is a more violent advance. Despite Russian claims that only military targets were to be hit, clearly civilian targets were hit. The advance is more violent because there are cities subject to encirclement and then there are the Russian armored vehicles headed for Kiev “he explains Alberto Guidi of the Institute for International Political Studies which analyzes the situation with us.
Was Putin really thinking of a blitzkrieg to easy entry into Ukrainian territory, which is proving to be resistant instead?
«It’s hard to say what Putin’s ideas were. There is talk of a two-week Russian invasion program. If so, it would be late. Should he also succeed in conquering Kiev, the fall of the capital does not involve taking the rest of the country. Some estimates indicated the number of soldiers needed to conquer the country at one million, for now Russia has employed 200,000. A logistician is added that rumors say scarce ».
Propaganda on both sides. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov talks about crimes against Russian speakers in Ukraine.
“That there was a war in the Donbass between the pro-Russian side and the rest of Ukraine has been a fact for eight years. From here to talking about genocide as Lavrov did, the step forward is great and statements of this nature have been denied several times by the United Nations. Lavrov says the attack was necessary for Ukraine not to acquire nuclear weapons when Russia has threatened to use them. It is difficult even to understand how many deaths there are between victims and soldiers in the absence of a third source ».
NATO excludes armed intervention.
«An armed intervention would lead to a war of global dimensions. Ukraine is not a NATO country and therefore there is no obligation to intervene. The means of the West are sanctions and weapons to be sent. In Europe there was a turning point with the choice of sending weapons. Germany and Sweden had never given weapons to a country at war since World War II. The EU did the same ».
And Switzerland.
«The weight of this choice lies in having blocked the accounts of some oligarchs and some Russian realities. The will is to displease people who are key to Putin’s internal support. Ursula Von der Leyen addressed all Russians who are not Putin, a call for awareness ».
Russia is not the opponent, it is Putin.
«The Ukrainian Foreign Minister spoke of a deputinization of the world because a large part of the world has imposed sanctions. The problem is that Putin’s hold on his country is strong. Since last year’s demonstrations after the Navalny case, the repression in Russia has been very strong. The opposition is at its lowest. Only now are there internal manifestations. It is difficult to think of a Russia without Putin in the absence of serious alternatives ».
Are sanctions useful and sufficient?
“Those used in the past as a deterrent have not been particularly effective, the more punitive ones today seem to be more successful. The blockade of Russian central bank funds abroad is fundamental: since 2014 the Russian idea had been to increase foreign exchange reserves. The ruble has lost 30% of its value. The stock exchange was closed for 3 days ».
How much do the sanctions we impose weigh on us?
«The European Union has studied them to be less affected as possible. For example, the exclusion from the Swift system does not involve GazpromBank which manages the movements related to gas. For this winter the situation should be under control as regards the energy side. The problem is to understand how long this situation will last ».
How real is the nuclear threat?
“It was since the Cuban missile crisis that a nuclear power had not signaled a readiness to launch as done by Russia. That this translates into something effective, I would say no. An escalation in that sense would not bring him the support of other countries, especially China which is looking for a diplomatic solution. Putin would isolate himself even more and risk very dangerous attacks. The announcement was made after the announcement on the negotiation was to put pressure on the counterpart “.
Source: Vanity Fair
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