Afghanistan: How We Reached the Taliban Recapture – Stakeholders and the Next Day

Developments are “running” in Afghanistan, after the recapture by the Taliban, as expected, after the withdrawal of US military forces. The unexpected was the lightning recapture of Kabul and the lightning flight of the President of the country who a few hours ago announced the defense of the freedoms of his people!

Writes Christos S. Argyriou *

Let’s look at the little picture first, inside Afghanistan. The Taliban have persuaded with their propaganda that the Karzai and Ghani regimes are US-instigated and do not represent the needs of the Afghan people. Unfortunately, the fact that after the withdrawal of American forces, the government fell and the President left the country, justifies the Taliban propaganda. The US gave $ 1 trillion. for the creation of the army, police and special armor services of the state. Nothing worked properly because:

a) Not all the money got where it needed to go,

b) there was no continuous professional supervision (monitoring);

c) the fight against the Taliban, without the help of the US, Britain was not as expected and most importantly,

d) the government was fighting the Taliban for dominance in opium cultivation.

Enlarging the picture a little, let’s look at the people directly involved, USA, Great Britain, EU. First of all, with the speed of developments, the USA, NATO and the EU were more surprised than the Afghans! There is division in the US and Britain after the decision of President Biden to leave, which is proving to be catastrophic for the time being. We have reached the inconceivable point of seeing a 180o turn from the USA and looking for a channel of communication with them. Taliban. The basic US rule was “we do not negotiate with terrorists”. So how did the US get to this point? The fluidity of international relations, cumulatively with the inversely proportional policy / character of former President Trump plus the West’s obsession to remove him from office at any cost, have brought this fraction of results, as the overall result is not yet complete. , but it is visible.

The British MPs of the ruling party wanted the stay of the British forces, since they had the responsibility of their military training (2nd military force in Afghanistan) and it is very difficult for them to admit defeat on the battlefield. They believe that they should be released from the USA in order not to be considered their 51st state.

Unfortunately, the EU can only do so by planning to prevent new migratory flows, taking a secondary role through the UN and hoping for a channel of communication between Borrell and the Taliban leadership (when it takes office).

Now let’s look at those indirectly involved. Pakistan is the country under pressure from the West (US, UN) to push the Taliban for peace, but there is a problem. Pakistan has for decades been a haven for the Taliban, who have homes and families in the neighboring country. Prime Minister Imran Khan also keeps a low profile on Taliban supporters inside the border, but does not condemn the atrocities in Afghanistan. But this also poses risks to Pakistan itself, as it will receive large numbers of immigrants, as well as the growing influence of the “Jihadist” parties that are overthrowing the country. India, as the UN presidency, wants to get involved in Afghanistan, citing growing rivalry with Pakistan, which it blames, saying the Taliban continue to provide logistical and financial support to Pakistan. So clearly there will be no solution through the UN or the UN under these circumstances. China through the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Hua Chunying said that we are ready to deepen friendly cooperation relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

I left Iran for last. Those of you who read my previous article on the elections in Iran and what it intends to do, you would understand that the plan is to become a regional ruler. It is now one step closer. I had written that Iran intends to unite Islam, no matter how difficult, no matter how absurd it sounds and / or is read. The stance of the new President of Iran Raisi, that the US defeat in neighboring Afghanistan, should be turned into an opportunity to revive life, security and lasting peace in the country, shows his intentions against the Taliban. which he can clearly control. It is no coincidence that there is already a plan to receive migrants in three regions of Iran, on the border with Afghanistan.

In this maze of developments, what can humanity expect? First, the formation of new alliances in the Middle East with countries such as China. The spread of Iranian influence in the region. The legitimation of a terrorist government in Afghanistan. The West has already begun talks with the upcoming government.

But because failure and the US are not in line with foreign policy (see US-Vietnam relations today), in the coming years the US will “turn the table” and use the situation that will be created to their advantage. Let us not forget that the real US failure was not in Afghanistan, but in Iran which was the main target. When the ground is right, the US will come back, because the civilized world will ask for it.

* Christos S. Argyriou is an Internationalist / Strategist, Stratfor Partner (TX, USA)