Africa-UK: post-Brexit ambition thwarted?

Announcement effects or real enthusiasm? For Manu Lekunze, professor of international relations at the University of Aberdeen, “we have to believe it, especially since Africa and the United Kingdom really need each other at the moment”. “In general, these kinds of events are effective. Because, after the declarations, come the more concrete announcements, ”he says. At the end of the conference, the CEO of CDC Group, Nick O’Donohoe, the British development finance institution, indeed communicated the amount of investments planned for the year. It’s to the tune of a billion dollars. A figure lower than that of the previous year – 27 trade and investment agreements had been announced for a value of 6.5 billion pounds -, but a significant sum nonetheless given the economic crisis that the most of the countries.

Infrastructures and finance in sight

“The two areas on which we will be particularly focused this year are the climate, technology”, assured Nick O’Donohoe to the American media Bloomberg, which recalls that, over the last three years, the CDC has already invested 3.7 billion dollars in Africa. Hitherto concentrated around imports of fruit, vegetables and flowers, and investments in oil and minerals, the British-African partnership could extend, as of this year, to infrastructure, “in the sectors of ‘energy, aviation and security,’ says Manu Lekunze. “While the UK benefits from the continent’s agriculture and food, African countries have a vested interest in benefiting from UK technical infrastructure expertise. It’s give-and-take. ”

Other sectors concerned by the partnership, “British insurance and financial services”, reports Dominique Fruchter, economist in charge of Africa at Coface. London has also recently promoted it, via a dedicated summit on February 3 and 4. The participants in the UK-Africa Fintech Summit have, for two days, listed “the skills of British fintech and highlighted the opportunities offered by Africa”, according to the official communication. “With this summit, we recognize the role fintech will play in supporting recovery and building more sustainable and inclusive economies,” said Emma Wade-Smith, Her Majesty’s Africa Trade Commissioner. The UK supports three technology hubs in Africa and a number of programs and projects, such as the Catalyst Fund, Female Tech Founders, Tech for Growth and the Global Entrepreneur Program, ”she added.

In the news, the pharmacy sector could well take precedence over all the others in the coming months. “Pharmaceuticals are, along with planes and automobiles supplied by British factories, the most exported products to Africa,” explains Dominique Fruchter. Africa has only 365 pharmaceutical companies, compared to 7,000 in China and 11,000 in India. With the Covid-19 pandemic, the continent could therefore appeal to the United Kingdom. British laboratories are indeed in a good place in the fight against the pandemic. After already three vaccines on the market, the country is preparing to launch a fourth. This one was developed by the American Novavax but manufactured in Stockton-on-Tees, in the north-east of England.

A possible solution after the suspension by South Africa, of the vaccination program with the AstraZeneca vaccine, effective at only 22% against the moderate forms of the variant which appeared in the country according to a study by the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. In his interview with BloombergNick O’Donohoe assures him: “We will pay more attention to investments in health”. And to add: “the private sector will have a more important role to play”.

A privileged link with Sudan and with Kenya

And in particular, private sector actors in Morocco, Nigeria and Egypt, countries regularly cited in the speeches of the Conference on Investment in Africa. But it is in Sudan and Kenya that the partnership seems to be taking shape the most. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab concluded a two-day visit there on January 21. In Khartoum, it took on a more political tone, with the displayed support of the British authorities for the transitional government. But the economic ambitions were very present.

Since his appointment on August 21, 2019, Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, an economist by training and a former senior UN official, has worked to reconnect with donors and rebuild bilateral relations abroad. The removal by the United States of Sudan from the blacklist of countries supporting terrorism is a welcome breath of fresh air, into which the United Kingdom is now rushing. “London comes at the right time, since the American decision allows loans to be released,” says Dominique Fruchter. The British rapprochement is quite unexpected, but it is a good surprise for Sudan “, which has secured an aid pledge of nearly $ 55 million, to provide 1.6 million people with” direct financial support ” .

Kenya, meanwhile, obtained an envelope of 73 million dollars to finance the construction of 100,000 affordable housing units, provided for by President Uhuru Kenyatta’s development program, the Big Four Agenda. Almost $ 65 million has also been pledged by Dominic Raab to support climate change mitigation strategies in Kenya. Investments that come following the trade agreement signed by the two countries in December, which confirms previous agreements of the European Union such as duty-free access for Kenyan exporters to the British market.

“There is a very strong link between Kenya, a former British colony, and London,” says Manu Lekunze. Given their common history, exchanges are naturally simpler. Especially since the Kenyan demand for foreign investments, which the country needs to finance its development plan, is very strong ”. “The tropism of the former colonies is still very present,” confirms Dominique Fruchter. For the Kenyan government, the opportunities offered by the British are interesting. But they will still have to remain cautious, because Kenya is heavily indebted ”.

A fragile partnership

For Manu Lekunze, the United Kingdom will also have to show its white paws on another point, crucial in the relations between the former colonist and the former colony: that of paternalism. “It is really a very sensitive element, which the British must take into account. For the partnership to work, there must be opportunities that are evenly distributed on both sides, he argues. The problem often affects relations between European countries and African states. Which leads to mistrust, and promotes Chinese and American competition ”.

In Kenya, competition is fierce for the UK. Because Uhuru Kenyatta is increasing contacts with other powers, such as the United States – a trade agreement is under discussion – and China, which has become a major partner in a few years. In April 2019, Kenya, for example, obtained funding from Beijing of $ 660 million for the construction of several infrastructures, in the form of concessional loans and public-private partnerships. Little by little, China, with billions of dollars in loans, has succeeded in taking the place of the United Kingdom in the collective spirit.

“For the young African generation, Britain is seen as part of the past and not of the future,” writes Nicholas Westcott, researcher at the University of London in an article published by The Conversation. A lot of students tell me that for business, they prefer to go to China, to study in the United States, Canada or India, to have fun in Dubai. For older Africans there is still affection, even respect, especially for the Royal Family, the BBC and for London – but also a growing sense of distance ”. A situation that is also rooted in the country’s history with the continent. Thus, “the inability to settle Rhodesia’s Unilateral Declaration of Independence in 1965 and Britain’s continued close relations with apartheid South Africa have altered political relations with the rest of the United States. Africa ”, explains the researcher.

A (too) ambitious goal?

It is therefore difficult today for the United Kingdom to find a place for itself on the continent, despite a clear desire to change the situation. All the more so as the country has reduced its development aid spending to 0.5% of gross domestic product against 0.7% last November, provoking an outcry from development agencies. “The post-Brexit United Kingdom is not going to weigh much in the balance, even though the European Union is in the process of renegotiating the Cotonou agreement, which defines the contours of aid to African countries -Caribbean-Pacific (ACP), warns Dominique Fruchter. “When it comes to investment and development aid, Africans have a greater interest in turning to Asia.”

Especially in these times of pandemic, which for the economist “will only slow down the process and cool the enthusiasm of investors”. “The economic crisis and the decline in British aid are not a good sign for a majority of observers,” admits Manu Lekunze. But you can also see the glass half full. Lowering aid can also reshape bilateral relations on a stronger, healthier footing through a win-win partnership. With regard to the pandemic, we can hope for an improvement in the situation thanks to the various vaccines, British and others, even if this will take time, ”he hopes. And to see the goal that the country had set in 2018, that of becoming the first investor of the G7 countries in Africa by 2022.