After 10 years, is the world closer to finding flight MH370?

For the past 10 years, MH370 has remained one of the greatest mysteries of the modern era.

A commercial airliner with a strong safety record carrying 239 people has disappeared from the map, spawning a wide variety of competing theories, books and documentaries and leaving the families of those left behind wondering every March 8: What happened to those behind? aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370?

In an age when black boxes are successfully pulled from the depths of the ocean and entire pieces of a downed plane are painstakingly pieced together to determine what caused the catastrophe, the fate of MH370 remains infuriatingly elusive.

It's a plane crash without a plane. A disaster without conclusive evidence of what happened to its victims. A story that anyone who boards a commercial flight can instantly identify with, but which, at least for now, does not have a final chapter.

However, many experts believe that there is still a strong chance that the wreckage of MH370 will be located, if only someone looks carefully and – crucially – shells out the staggering amount of money that could be needed to achieve that goal.

For Jiang Hui, who lost her mother in the disaster, this time of year is especially difficult – and not just because of her March 8 birthday. Qingming, the annual festival in which Chinese people visit and clean the tombs of their ancestors, takes place in early April.

“But we never found MH370. I never met my mother,” Jiang told CNN . “I can’t honor my mother like everyone else.”

His mother, Jiang Cuiyun, is still listed as “missing” in her home country of China, he said. “I will only find my mother if they can find MH370,” he added.

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 bound for Beijing went off radar shortly after departing the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur, in the early hours of March 8, 2014.

The takeoff was uneventful. The flight reached a cruising altitude of 35,000 feet and the pilots briefly chatted with Vietnamese air traffic as the plane continued on its standard route. After that, the aircraft stopped communicating and disappeared from radar when it made an unexpected turn to the west.

Since then, apparent fragments have washed up on the east coast of Africa and islands in the Indian Ocean, where the aircraft and people on board are believed to have met their fate. But to this day the body of the aircraft and its black box have never been found. It is believed to have fallen. But we still don't know why.

A new search?

This week, many loved ones of the missing returned to Malaysia to urge local authorities to relaunch a search before this Friday's anniversary (8).

“There were lost ships that were found after hundreds of years. So we cannot say that this plane will never be found,” family member VPR Nathan told Reuters during a recent celebration event. His wife Anne Daisy was on board MH370. “Of course he can be found. It’s a matter of time,” he stated.

Aviation experts tell CNN that improved detection technology will likely bring families of the missing plane closer than ever before if the search is resumed.

But it won't be cheap. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent exploring more than 710,000 square kilometers of the Indian Ocean by 2018, but nothing has happened to change our understanding of that already available from the earliest days.

US-based offshore exploration company Ocean Infinity is offering the Malaysian government another “if you don't find it, don't charge it” deal – as they did in 2018 – but experts noted that authorities would have to pay if the aircraft was found. .

To the families' encouragement, Malaysian authorities made some positive remarks about the prospect of a new search. On Sunday (3), Transport Minister Anthony Loke said that his country “would do everything possible to solve this mystery once and for all”.

He said his ministry is “ready” to discuss a “credible” new search proposal with Ocean Infinity and will do “everything possible” to obtain Cabinet approval for a new contract with the company.

“As we approach 10 years of remembering this heartbreaking tragedy, it is a painful reminder of the decade-long journey of pain and resilience that the victims’ loved ones endured,” he said.

Oliver Plunkett, CEO of Ocean Infinity, said that since the 2018 search, the company has been improving its robotics and marine exploration technology, while working with analysts to narrow search areas to “one where success becomes potentially achievable.” . “We hope to return to the search soon,” he said in a recent note.

But neither Ocean Infinity nor the Malaysian government have given more concrete details about their possible plans.

Competing theories

With few facts established, the disappearance of MH370 has confused the world and sparked all sorts of theories over the years, from mechanical failures to accidental or deliberate pilot error and even some kind of hijacking.

The point at which the facts end and the mystery begins is around 40 minutes into the flight, when the plane's transponder stopped transmitting. Their signals soon disappeared from civilian and military radars. Subsequent tracks led experts to conclude that the aircraft had gone drastically off course.

Instead of flying northeast across the South China Sea, analysts believe the plane turned and inexplicably glided south over the Indian Ocean, one of the world's most remote flight tracking locations due to a lack of satellites. image, according to aviation experts.

“This has all the hallmarks of a spy thriller. And it captured the world’s imagination,” said Geoffrey Thomas, editor-in-chief of AirlineRatings.com. “Everyone can board a Boeing 777. Everyone can fly from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing,” he said. “It’s so real.”

An initial search, carried out by Malaysia, China and Australia and estimated to cost A$200 million, was called off in January 2017 after no trace could be found. Ocean Infinity was then hired by the Malaysian government under the “if you don’t find it, you don’t charge” clause. But his 90-day search in 2018 also came to nothing.

Richard Quest, general economics editor at CNN and former aviation correspondent, said that despite years of search efforts, “the truth is that we are no closer to knowing exactly what caused the plane to disappear.”

“The hope is that new search techniques, new equipment and a better understanding of what happened to the plane will make this search a success,” said Quest, author of “The Vanishing of Flight MH370.”

Advancement in technology

Aviation experts are confident of a breakthrough if a new search is carried out. They pointed to a technology called Weak Signal Propagation Reporter, or WSPR, released in 2008. The technology has become popular among those looking for the MH370 in recent years.

Radio amateurs use the technology to track the strength of radio signals around the world and the data they collect detects anomalies caused by various types of interference, which include the passing of a flight, retired British aerospace engineer Richard Godfrey explained to CNN .

Godfrey said he tracked data with WSPR back to the time MH370 disappeared and concluded that the aircraft may be between 3,000 and 4,000 meters below the Indian Ocean, about 1,500 kilometers off the coast of Perth, Australia.

As thorough as previous searches may have been, Godfrey said, they did not cover the location he suggested.

“I certainly believe that MH370 can be found,” he said, adding that his findings are in line with other clues, such as data provided by British satellite telecommunications company Inmarsat, which pointed to more or less the same area.

But even if another expedition is granted, he said, the preparation work could take months. AirlineRatings’ Thomas has “a strong feeling” that Godfrey is right, but it raises another anxiety.

“It concerns me that they are just giving family members some warm and comforting statements on the anniversary of the tragedy,” he said, referring to Malaysian authorities.

Fall into reality

Some relatives, like American Sarah Bajc, who lost her partner Phil Wood, tried to move on. But she still feels like she lives in the shadow of the past from time to time. Since the flight's disappearance, Bajc has moved from Asia to Panama, where she has remarried and opened an eco-resort that allows her and her husband to live peacefully in the rainforest.

But to this day she avoids watching dramas and documentaries about plane crashes and has recurring nightmares. “I have nightmares about diving in this beautiful area with lots of fish. And then all of a sudden the hull of the plane would be there and the bodies would float,” she said.

Faced with the prospect of a new search, she is optimistic. “Maybe they're ready to do that, and in that case I'm really happy because… families need closure, the world needs closure and someone needs to be held accountable,” she said, regarding the prospect of another search mission being launched. by Malaysia.

Others, like Jiang, are determined to uncover the truth. He says not a day goes by without him thinking about his mother, who he described as a strong, hard-working woman who he idolized as an inspirational figure.

“I can find her shadow in me. Everything I’m doing now is what my mom wants me to do,” he said.

Jiang is among 40 families who launched another bid last year to seek justice through the Chinese legal system. The people on board were of different nationalities, but China was by far the hardest hit, with 153 passengers.

Claimants in China are suing Malaysia Airlines, its insurer, Boeing and the plane's engine manufacturer, demanding compensation, a formal apology and the resumption of psychological assistance to family members, as well as the creation of a fund to continue the search. by plane.

It is unclear, however, how much jurisdiction Chinese courts will have over the list of foreign-based companies.

After spending the last few days meeting with Malaysian officials, Jiang is optimistic about a new search. But this also gives him double feelings.

“On the one hand, I really want to find the plane today or tomorrow,” he said. “But I’m also afraid of the reality I will have to face after finding the plane.”