In the last 24 hours, Brazil recorded 20,456 cases and 198 deaths from Covid-19. The data were released by the National Council of Health Secretaries (Conass) this Monday (07)
The moving average of new cases reached 40,264, up 0.3% from the previous day. It is the first time that the moving average of cases has risen after 25 uninterrupted days of decline.
The moving average of deaths is at 430 — exactly the same as the day before. Stability also breaks a 14-day decline.
The moving averages consider the average of the numbers recorded in the last seven days and serve to monitor the indicators of the pandemic without any distortions caused by possible underreporting on weekends.
To CNN, Alexandre Naime, vice president of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases (SBI) and professor at Unesp, said that “daily punctual changes do not necessarily represent an increasing trend.”
Robson Reis, infectious disease specialist and professor at the Bahia School of Medicine and Public Health (EBMSP), said it is important to assess whether it is an increase in Brazil, in general, or a change in some state.
“Brazil is experiencing a significant drop in numbers, Rio de Janeiro even allowed the use of a mask indoors, something I am against, I prefer caution so that we can have control of the pandemic”, says Reis.
Asked about the possibility that the increase in the moving average is a reflection of Carnival, Reis said that “it may even be a small reflection of the parties that some places had, but these numbers usually occur between seven and 14 days after such events”, says Reis.
Naime explains that to be sure that the “increase is a reflection of the Carnival festivities, it is necessary to wait for the next few days. Not least because there is the incubation time, which can be up to 14 days,” he said.
The EBMSP professor recalls that it is necessary to be cautious in observing the stable number of the moving average of deaths. “There is always delay in releasing data. The downward trend is worldwide, this was already expected, but it is necessary to reassess with caution.”
The vice president of SBI assesses that “if the number of cases does not increase, especially among the most susceptible, the tendency is to maintain the decline”. [nas mortes]”.
In all, the country accounts for 652,341 deaths and 29,069,469 cases related to the coronavirus.
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Source: CNN Brasil
