Seven months since he announced his resignation as UK prime minister, Boris Johnson’s shadow still looms over the ruling Conservative party.
Despite being forced out of office and presiding over a massive decline in support for himself and his party, Johnson is still trying to influence government policy.
His supporters say his interventions are the Conservatives’ last hope of saving the party from decimation in the next election. His critics feel that he is not only undermining the current premier, Rishi Sunak, but, by reminding voters of his existence, is damaging his party’s electoral prospects.
Johnson was forced to resign after several scandals made his position untenable. Those scandals included the notorious “Partygate”, where Johnson became the first prime minister to be found guilty of breaking the law by holding illegal meetings during the Covid-19 lockdown.
The last straw for Johnson came after allegations surfaced that his deputy chief, Chris Pincher, was sexually harassing party members. Johnson hired Pincher despite being aware of rumors about his conduct.
Johnson has spent much of the last week leaving Westminster guessing whether or not he will publicly speak out against Sunak as he tries to negotiate a deal with the European Union to fix part of the 2019 Brexit deal. Johnson negotiated and signed this agreement, calling it “oven-ready” during his election campaign that same year.
The part of the agreement that causes all the problems is the Northern Ireland Protocol, which theoretically prevents a hard border between Northern Ireland, which left the European Union along with the rest of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, a state block member.
Both sides agree that a border should not exist, for fear of provoking tensions and violence. Northern Ireland has been largely peaceful since a 1998 deal ended the three-decade “Troubles” in which more than 3,500 people were killed.
The UK has not implemented the protocol in full, fearing it would harm trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
Northern Ireland’s pro-British unionists say the protocol isolates the province from the rest of the UK, while British Brexit hardliners believe the protocol – and any deal Sunak can make to revive it – is essentially a capitulation to EU, despite supporting negotiating in 2019.
These hardliners, along with Johnson, believe Sunak should not specifically abandon a piece of legislation Johnson tabled during his term, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which allows the UK government to tear up parts of the protocol. Critics say that would violate international law.
The constant noise and anticipation of a Johnson intervention effectively killed talks about a deal to be reached with the EU and left many questioning Sunak’s strength as prime minister.
Johnson also publicly implored Sunak to become the first Western leader to send fighter jets to Ukraine as the conflict marked its one-year anniversary.
‘Fundamentally very selfish’
The vast majority of parliamentarians with whom the CNN talked is tired of Johnson’s “attention seeking” as many of them described it.
All declined to speak officially, for fear of disrupting Northern Ireland’s talks which, as many of them were quick to point out, is a very dangerous situation, pointing to the shooting of a detective that took place in the province this week.
“I just wish he would stand by and realize that his efforts would be better spent supporting Rishi,” said a former government minister. “The next election is going to be hard enough without that distraction. Boris is still popular in certain parts of the country that we may lose seats. He should be there on the campaign trail, not suggesting a return to the front lines.”
Another government minister is less optimistic about Johnson’s ability to help even if he wanted to.
“He is fundamentally too selfish to want to help the people he undoubtedly believes have unfairly ousted him from office,” said the former minister. “And he is unpopular enough that the prospect of returning to the forefront could be one of the biggest motivating factors for people to vote against us.”
A recent Ipsos MORI poll found Johnson still less trustworthy than Sunak, or opposition leader Keir Starmer. Poll after poll of the outcome of the next general election predicts that the Conservatives will suffer heavy losses.
That drop can be traced directly back to the start of the Partygate scandal. Prior to that, Johnson had enjoyed an exceptionally high level of support, thanks in large part to the successful rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine in the UK.
Johnson’s supporters do not entirely believe the polls, and challenge the narrative that he is responsible for the collapse of Conservative support, claiming it was due to a media obsession with Partygate.
A Johnson supporter told the CNN that “people forget that he has won most since Margaret Thatcher” and believes he is still “a giant” in the public eye. His party supporters welcome his interventions, with one saying of the debate in Northern Ireland, still taking aim at the press, that the media “must be given the widest possible debate on this important constitutional issue for our nation”.
Other Conservatives worry that Johnson supporters, who are on the harder end of the Brexit support spectrum, will learn the hard way that their assumptions are wrong.
“Most of his supporters in parliament have already decided to resign in the next elections, probably because they know they have a very good chance of losing their seat,” said the former government minister.
A senior Conservative and former cabinet minister who worked in the government with Johnson looks on with some degree of bewilderment.
“I really don’t know what these hardline Brexiters are hoping to achieve. The public largely sees Brexit as a mistake, so why bet on it so aggressively?”
There are a growing number of conservatives who look at the polls and think that a big defeat in the next general election is inevitable. They see a huge advantage in Johnson returning to the front lines: that his losing may finally dispel the myth that he is the “chosen one” and finally draw a line under Johnson’s entire experiment.
Johnson seems unlikely to end his agitation, especially over policies he believes could destroy his legacy. However, the louder he screams and the harder he stomps his feet, the biggest threat to Johnson’s legacy could easily become Boris Johnson himself. Whether he will bring down his party also seems to be an issue that doesn’t bother many of his supporters.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
