Agricultural harvest should reach a record 296.2 million tons in 2023, predicts IBGE

The 2023 agricultural harvest should total 296.209 million tons, a jump of 12.6% compared to the 2022 result, equivalent to 33.1 million tons more. If confirmed, it will be another record harvest. The data are from the third and final Agricultural Production Forecast, released this Thursday (12) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Regarding the second prognosis, referring to November, the projection for the agricultural production of grains in 2023 was adjusted slightly upwards, with an increase of 0.8%, or 2.2 million tons more.

In addition, Brazilian producers are expected to plant 75.256 million hectares in the 2023 agricultural season, an increase of 2.7% in relation to the area harvested in 2022.

Soy

The new production record expected for the 2023 agricultural harvest will be driven by a jump in soybean production, after the break in 2022, show data from the third and last Agricultural Production Forecast.

With a strong recovery after the 2022 crash, caused by the drought in the Southern Region last summer, soybean production is expected to reach a record 148.4 million tons, a 24.1% jump compared to last year. Between the second forecast, for November 2022, and the third forecast, for December, the IBGE raised its forecast for the soybean crop by 1.3%.

“The annual growth in production is mainly due to the expectation of an increase in the average yield of the crop, which should exceed by 18.9% what was achieved in 2022, added to the expansion of 4.5% in the areas of cultivation, totaling 40, 9 million hectares”, says the note released by the IBGE.

Corn

Corn will also make its contribution to the overall crop result in 2023, renewing the record set in 2022, show data from the third and last Agricultural Production Forecast.

Total corn production is expected to reach 116.4 million tons, up 5.7% compared to 2022. In 2022, the strong increase of 36.4% in the production of the second corn grains.

For the first corn crop of 2023, the IBGE projects a production of 29.6 million tons, growth of 16.2% compared to the 2022 crop, “with emphasis on crop productivity, which should increase by 13.9% ”, according to the note released by the statistics agency.

For second-crop corn, which in recent years has accounted for most of total production, the IBGE projects 86.9 million tons, an increase of 2.5% compared to 2022.

Rice, beans and cotton

If the new record harvest expected for 2023 will be guaranteed by the main products of Brazilian agriculture, soybeans and corn, the production of rice and beans should register a drop, while the cotton crop may maintain its high levels.

The IBGE projection for the production of herbaceous seed cotton is 6.8 million tons, an increase of 1.3% in relation to the previous year. In 2022, cotton production jumped 15.2% compared to 2021. “In 2022, the climate favored cotton production, notably in the 2nd harvest, when most of the crop is cultivated”, says the IBGE note.

The production of rice and beans, destined to supply the internal market, should fall in 2023. The rice harvest should add up to 10.3 million tons, according to the third forecast by the IBGE.

If confirmed, the harvest will be 3.4% smaller than that of 2022, with a 4.3% decline in the area to be harvested. Despite the reduction, the IBGE assesses, in a note, that “this production should be sufficient to supply the Brazilian market”.

The total production of beans should reach 3.0 million tons in 2023, in the sum of its three harvests, projects the IBGE. If the estimate is confirmed, it will be a drop of 3.2% compared to the harvest harvested in 2022.

“The 1st harvest should produce 1.1 million tons; the 2nd harvest, 1.2 million tons and the 3rd harvest, 641.7 thousand tons. This production should meet domestic market consumption in 2023”, says the IBGE note.