Air transport: Everything is judged in the first quarter of the year – Greece is in an advantageous position

2021 was a year of steady recovery for aviation in Europe following the shock of the 2020 pandemic. first quarter of the year that will largely determine the course of the whole year.

In its report for 2021, the European Aviation Safety Agency (Eurocontrol) states that traffic (number of flights) at major European airports reached 59% in 2019 and estimates that this year it could reach 70% to 90% in 2019. according to the “basic” scenario for the course of the coming years, which predicts a return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2023.

However, with the coronavirus mutations extending the uncertainty, the possibility of finally confirming the “pessimistic” scenario of the Organization, which predicts a slower recovery and return to 2019 levels, not earlier than 2027, has not been avoided.

This is because many countries are being urged to speed up vaccination programs and vaccine boosters and change the minds of vaccine-resistant populations to reduce the impact of the pandemic on travel.

Another risk is that new forms of vaccine may be needed to treat coronavirus mutations, and the possibility of imposing new universal lockdowns or restricting travel has not been ruled out.

The emergence of the Omicron mutation may temporarily halt the recovery of aviation, or even eliminate the gains of 2021. “And this means that government intervention in the first quarter of 2021 will play a key role in how air traffic develops during during the year “, reports Eurocontrol.

The bet of the summer and Greece

Some major European airlines have already reduced their flight operations by up to 30% for January, and are on hold for the coming months. The big bet is to have the situation under control by April-May when the summer season begins.

The goal, that is, is to repeat within the year a course similar to last year. 2021 started with passenger traffic at 36% in 2019 but in the summer there was a significant increase due to mass vaccinations and the EU digital vaccination certificate resulting in the summer months the number of flights to reach 70% in 2019.

As a result, summer destinations performed better. This also happened in our country, which according to Eurocontrol data recorded one of the strongest recovery rates in the wider region.

In particular, last year Greece was ranked 5th with the strongest recovery of aviation among Eurocontrol member countries and first among EU member states with flights reaching 73% in 2019. Smaller losses compared to 2019 was recorded only by Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armenia and Ukraine, but which had much fewer flights compared to our country.

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