Of Tasos Dasopoulos
With a forecast for growth of 3.1%, the Ministry of Finance appears for the second consecutive year, to appear more pessimistic than institutions inside and outside Greece, which closely monitor the course of the Greek economy.
Although everyone has revised their forecasts at the beginning of the year, due to the persistence of inflation and the war in Ukraine, they all insist that in the second consecutive crisis after the coronavirus, Greece will do better than the Ministry of Finance expects.
The Bank of Greece, in April, revised the December forecast for growth of 4.8% and more, predicts that the Greek economy will grow at a rate of 3.8%, much higher than the forecast of the Ministry of Finance. The BoG reduced the slowdown of the economy to 1%, seeing that the reforms continue and the fact that Greece has to benefit from the utilization of the resources of the Recovery Fund.
The “tough” IMF predicts from April that despite the crisis, the funds of the Recovery Fund but also the dynamics that have developed exports, investments and tourism will be enough to grow the economy at a rate of 3.5% this year, instead 3.8% that was forecast until the beginning of the year.
In the same vein, and the European Commission which also sees the dynamics of the economy from exports, investment full recovery in tourism tourism at 2019 levels.
It also forecasts small losses in disposable income due to Government interventions and forecasts 3.5% growth for this year, which is significantly revised, from the 4.9% it forecast last February.
Only IOBE has significantly revised its forecast for economic growth and now forecasts growth of 2.5% for this year, compared to growth of 5%, which predicted before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, seeing significant consequences in addition to the disposable income of households due to inflation and investment and exports due to impending interest rate hikes.
Why is YPOIK pessimistic?
YPOIK appears less optimistic than the organizations that monitor the economy, trying to cover even the worst – predictable – scenario for the economy.
Both in 2021 and in 2022, the Greek and the international economy are plagued by successive crises with the severe crisis of the coroner, to now follow the crisis of high inflation.
Conservative forecasting is even more so this year, given that the war in Ukraine is not just keeping fuel and food prices high. It now also openly threatens Europe ‘s energy efficiency, which poses an additional risk to growth.
Nevertheless, the leadership of YPOIK admits that the forecast for this year is conservative. In fact, they admit that they have not revised the forecast that for this year, tourism will recover 80% of the turnover of 2019 at a time when professionals in the field, cultivate reasonable expectations that the 2019 record can be surpassed this year.
On the other hand, if the worst-case scenario does not materialize and the economy has an outperformance similar to that of 2021, then there will be fiscal space, which can be used to further relieve businesses and households of the consequences of accuracy without being affected. budgetary targets.