Following a volatile first quarter, EUR / USD gained strong upward traction, breaking above the long-term downtrend line from the 2008 high. Essentially, the fact that the euro managed to overcome this important barrier was a strong bullish signal. The mark of 1.45 would be an ambitious goal for investors who expect the shared currency to perform well in the coming years, according to economists at Rabobank.
“The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2017 downtrend is the next target for the EUR bulls. It must be taken into account that this level coincides with the maximum of 2018, forming a potentially strong resistance area around 1.25“.
“Since the two big moves prior to the upside this year were followed by pullbacks, another correction is very likely to develop in the coming weeks. The strong market preference to buy falls should limit a correction to around 1.20 / 1.19 “.
“We are not particularly optimistic about the euro, but those market participants who expect the single currency to perform particularly well in the coming years may have an ambitious target of around 1.45 obtained by measuring the distance between the 2017/16 low and the key trend line. Note that using the same simple technique in reverse provided an accurate bearish target in 2015. “
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