American labor market: weaker, but not weak – Commerzbank

Today is that moment again: payroll Friday. The first Friday of the month when, as is traditional, the US labor market report is published according to Bloomberg, the consensus expectation is that the US economy created 126,000 new jobs in May. This would be significantly less than in the last two months, but it would be approximately in line with the average of the last 12 months, says Volkmar Bour, FX analyst of Commerzbank.

The approach is at the unemployment rate and average wages per hour

“The JOLT survey published on Tuesday showed a surprising increase in employment vacancies in April. And since this figure is always determined on the last business day of the month, this would undoubted It is still slow. “

“Yesterday, the initial applications for the week that ended on May 31 increased to 247,000, the highest level since last October. The average of four weeks also increased, reaching 235,000, the highest level since last October. This means that the initial applications were around 8% higher than in the same week of last year. The year -on -year increase has accelerated significantly in the last two weeks, after averaging around 4.5% since the beginning of the year. The Conference Board consumer survey also recently revealed that people feel that jobs are no longer so easy to find and that employment vacancies have decreased. “

“In general, a figure around or slightly below the consensus is unlikely that it has a particularly strong impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate. A surprise upwards, on the other hand, would undoubtedly give the dollar a temporal impulse. However, to press the dollar, the labor market would probably have to be significantly worse than expected. As always, the approach will be at the unemployment rate and the average salary per hour per hour, in addition to the number of new time, in addition to the number of new time, in addition to the number created jobs.