Analysis: Australia, UK and US join forces in mega submarine deal

More than a year after the United States, United Kingdom and Australia broke the news that they were combining undersea forces, the trio released more details on Monday of their ambitious plan to curb China’s rapid military expansion.

Under the multi-decade AUKUS (Follow of Australia, United Kingdom and United States) agreement, the partners will build a combined fleet of elite nuclear submarines using technology, manpower and funding from all three countries, creating a more formidable force in the Indo-Pacific than any of them could reach alone.

But the long timeframe and enormous financial costs – running into the hundreds of billions for Australia alone – raise questions about the extent to which the partners’ plans may deviate from their “ideal path” in the coming decades, as governments and, potentially, priorities change.

In a joint statement on Monday, US President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and UK counterpart Rishi Sunak said the “historic” deal would build on past efforts by the three countries to “sustain peace, stability and prosperity throughout the world”.

The plan starts this year with training rotations for Australian personnel on submarines and US and UK bases, with the expectation that in about 20 years they will command Australia’s first nuclear-powered fleet.

But there’s a long way to go between now and the future, as outlined in a series of phases announced by the leaders as they stood side by side in San Diego harbor.

submarines in stages

From 2023, along with training Australians, US nuclear-powered submarines will increase visits to Australian ports, followed three years later by more visits by British-owned nuclear-powered submarines.

In 2027, US and UK submarines will begin rotations at HMAS Stirling, an Australian military port near Perth, Western Australia, which is set to receive a multi-billion dollar upgrade.

Then, starting in the early 2030s, pending Congressional approval, Australia will buy three Virginia-class submarines from the US, with an option to buy two more.

In the same decade, the UK plans to build its first AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine – combining its Astute-class submarine with US combat systems and weapons.

Soon after, in the early 2040s, Australia will deliver the first of its homemade AUKUS submarines to its Royal Navy.

Like a series of bullet points on the page, the plan looks simple.

But the complexities involved are staggering and require an unprecedented level of investment and information sharing between the three partners, whose political careers as leaders are likely to be much shorter than those of the man they are working to combat: China’s Xi Jinping.

Last week, China’s political elite endorsed Xi’s unprecedented third term, solidifying his control and making him Communist China’s longest-serving head of state since its founding in 1949.

The most assertive Chinese leader in a generation, Xi has expanded his country’s military forces and sought to extend Beijing’s influence across the Indo-Pacific, undermining Western powers.

Richard Dunley of the University of New South Wales said Australia was under pressure to respond after years of inaction and the proposal was an impressive run towards a workable plan.

“It’s the last dice roll. And they managed to just stick the eye of a needle to something that seems plausible.”

regional response

A flurry of diplomacy followed Monday’s announcement, in part to avoid the impact of the initial announcement in 2021, when French President Emmanuel Macron accused former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison of lying to him when he backed out of a deal. of 90 billion Australian dollars to buy French submarines.

That deal would have delivered new submarines on a faster schedule, but they would have been conventional diesel-powered ships rather than state-of-the-art nuclear ships.

Australia learned from that diplomatic spat and its senior leaders – including Albanese – made around 60 calls to allies and regional neighbors to inform them of the plan before it was announced, according to Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles.

China was not one of them.

Biden told reporters on Monday that he plans to speak with Xi soon, but declined to say when that would be, adding he was not concerned that Xi would view the AUKUS announcement as an assault.

That contrasts with emerging sentiment in Beijing, including its accusations that the trio is fomenting an arms race in Asia.

At a daily briefing on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said AUKUS partners “completely ignored the international community’s concerns and took a wrong and dangerous path.”

He said the deal “would spur an arms race, undermine the international nuclear non-proliferation system and undermine regional peace and stability”.

Peter Dean, director of foreign policy and defense at the Center for US Studies at the University of Sydney, said the Chinese claims were exaggerated.

“If there is an arms race in the Indo-Pacific, there is only one country that is running and that is China,” he told CNN .

Smaller countries in the region are watching the AUKUS plan with concern that an increased presence in their waters could lead to unintended conflict, said Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto of the Center for Strategic and Defense Studies at the Australian National University.

“With the more rotating presence of US and UK submarines in Australia, there is a greater need for China to keep an eye on these units and thereby increase the likelihood of accidents or incidents at sea,” he said.

Biden emphasized on Monday that he wanted “the world to understand” that the agreement was “talking about nuclear power, not nuclear weapons.”

According to a White House briefing, the US and UK will supply Australian nuclear material in sealed “welded power units” that will not require resupply. Australia has committed to disposing of nuclear waste in Australia on land owned by the defense. But that won’t happen until at least the late 2050s, when the Virginia-class ships are retired.

Australia says it does not have the capacity to enrich it to weapons grade, will not acquire it and wants to comply with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) principles on non-proliferation.

Because it is necessary

The AUKUS plan is an admission by Australia that, without submarines that can spend long periods at great depths, the country is woefully unprepared to face China in the Indo-Pacific.

“It’s extremely complex and extremely risky,” said Dunley of the University of New South Wales.

“But when the original announcement and decision was made in 2021, there were few good options left for Australia. So I think they did as well as they could,” he added.

Challenges are posed by a project of this scale, which includes many moving parts with potential knock-on effects on schedule and cost.

The deal involves upgrades to ports and fleets, including expanding the operational lives of Australia’s Collins-class submarines into the 2040s to help transition to nuclear.

“You’re having to pull the subs out for quite a significant period of time to get them back and if there are delays or problems that can cascade, you could see issues where Australia really doesn’t have enough subs to maintain its current forces. of sailors, let alone increase it,” Dunley said.

As the three countries race to expand their fleets, training enough personnel could become a serious challenge, Dunley said.

The security element of jobs means that the pool of skilled workers is inevitably shallow. Efforts are being made in every country to lure trainees into a life below the surface of the sea for months at a time – potentially not an easy sell in a competitive job market.

And then there is the financing.

The Australian government says it will meet 0.15% of gross domestic product every year for 30 years – a cost of up to $245 billion.

Max Bergmann, director of the European Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the deal will ultimately require healthy economies, and all three countries are grappling with cost-of-living pressures.

“The UK economy is not doing very well. And part of what you’re going to need is a thriving economy so that you can maintain the level of spending you need,” he told a news conference.

The long journey ahead

Xi’s decision to allow himself to retain Chinese leadership for life means he could be approaching his 90s when Australia and Britain launch their new AUKUS fleets.

By this time, the Indo-Pacific landscape could have changed quite a bit.

Xi, 69, made clear that the issue of Taiwan, an island democracy that China’s Communist Party claims but has never ruled, cannot be passed down indefinitely to other generations.

For now, Australia says it is confident of continued bipartisan support in Washington for the program, which will feature the continued transfer of US nuclear material and other weapons secrets.

“We go into this with a high degree of confidence,” Defense Minister Marles said on Monday.

However, the risk remains that in the coming years an inward-looking American leader in the style of former President Donald Trump — or perhaps Trump himself — could emerge to threaten the deal.

Charles Edel, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the deal is much more than a concerted effort to change China’s calculations about its security environment.

“It is intended to transform the industrial shipbuilding capability of all three nations, it is intended to be a technological accelerator, it is intended to change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, and ultimately it is intended to change the model of how the United States works. and empowers your closest allies.”

*With information from Kathleen Magramo of CNN.