Boris Johnson survived his own party’s vote of no confidence. Conservative lawmakers decided, in a secret vote this Monday (6), by 211 to 148, to keep Johnson as party leader – and, consequently, as Prime Minister of the United States. UK .
The government put on a brave face in the result, describing Johnson as “compelling” and “decisive”. “I think this is a very good result for politics and for the country,” he said in an interview given shortly after the election.
But standing in the Houses of Parliament, it was impossible to ignore the sick look on the faces of the loyal MPs who cleared the room two minutes after the announcement.
The result was far narrower than even the most pessimistic allies had anticipated. Before the vote, a margin of 80 was considered by many to be the worst case scenario. Now Johnson’s supporters are scrambling to overturn that result as a victory or decide what the next step will be, as his tenure as prime minister looks more shaky than at any time since he took office.
Prior to the election, Johnson had been informed by Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, that 54 letters of distrust – the necessary limit for opening a vote – had been sent on Sunday afternoon (5).
The vote came after a tense weekend for the prime minister, in which he was publicly booed at an event celebrating Queen Elizabeth II’s Platinum Jubilee. The premier’s personal assessment was eroded after the “Partygate” scandal.
While the vote could impact his legacy, Johnson did not expect to lose. Not only did the rebels need a large number – 180 deputies to vote against Johnson – there was no obvious alternative candidate to replace him.
When the prime minister addressed parliamentarians ahead of the election, he was met with raucous applause and table thumps. Supporters who left the room said Johnson was in a serious mood, talking about politics and how to move the country forward rather than cracking jokes. Some detractors also said that he took a serious tone at the meeting and that they expected Johnson to win.
Johnson and his allies now hope that the Conservative Party and the rest of the country can get over the “Partygate” scandal, in which Johnson was considered the first British prime minister to break the law while in office.
However, his political future is far from secure. Whatever his party’s allies want, Johnson’s approval ratings across the country continue to drop — as do polls of his party as a whole.
For months, Johnson and his administration have been caught up in scandals ranging from protecting a deputy who violated lobbying rules to another being found guilty of sexually abusing a 15-year-old boy.
The way the caption handled the “Partygate” scandal was at times chaotic and incoherent. Discipline among Conservative lawmakers – including those on the government’s payroll – is weak, with lawmakers making headlines daily and with their officials often undermined.
What’s next for Johnson?
Conventionally, winning a vote of confidence means that a Conservative leader is immune to such a challenge for another 12 months.
However, rumors are already circulating that lawmakers, furious that the vote came too soon, are looking for ways to rewrite the rules.
As Johnson’s popularity declines, he takes the party’s performance in the polls with him. This summer, the Conservatives could lose up to two seats in the June 23 election.
If so, it will be difficult for even Johnson’s most vocal supporters to claim that the prime minister’s unpopularity had nothing to do with it.
And at that point, other deputies might start looking at their own seats and wondering if they’ll be able to keep them in the next general election, currently set for 2024.
So while Johnson desperately wants to keep his post, a large number of his lawmakers still see this summer as the best chance to remove him from power and install a new leader.
To avoid all that, Johnson will need to reverse his and his party’s popularity. This is currently difficult for several reasons. The UK is experiencing the worst cost-of-living crisis it has experienced in decades. Given that the Conservatives have been in power since 2010, it’s hard for them to argue that they still have the solution.
Even allies privately admit that some of Johnson’s magic is gone. In recent weeks, several pro-Johnson lawmakers have told CNN who feel their charisma is wearing thin and the prime minister looks increasingly tired and out of ideas. They wonder how long they can let such a undermined leader, in their eyes, limp at the party’s expense.
For now, Boris Johnson can breathe a temporary sigh of relief. But winning this vote of confidence just gives you a little breathing room.
Source: CNN Brasil
