Republican Donald Trump is in a better position against Democrat Joe Biden now than at any time during the entire 2020 campaign. The former president is leading in polls by more than his share of registered voters, including in several swing states.
But it seems plausible that these early polls could be underestimating Biden's standing. In a change from the usual expected dynamics, in which Democrats supposedly do better with higher turnout, Biden may benefit when pollsters look at likely voters rather than all registered voters.
Thus, Trump may do better in an election in which turnout is higher.
In a New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this month, Trump had a 2-point lead among registered voters. Biden had 2 points more among likely voters. Both are within the margin of error, but there is a notable 4-point shift for Biden when comparing likely and registered voters.
Another pollster found something similar, as the average of the last two Marquette University Law School polls showed the former president up 4 points among registered voters, while Biden and Trump were tied among likely voters.
Just like the Times data, this is a 4-point shift for Biden when moving from registered to likely voters.
An October survey from Grinnell College conducted by Ann Selzer similarly found that 2020 Biden voters were 4 points more likely to say they would definitely vote than 2020 Trump voters.
This would be a big change compared to what was historically seen. Typically, Republicans gain about 2 points when they move from registered voters to likely voters.
It's possible that the recent survey data is just statistical noise. The 2024 poll makes sense, however, in the context of the two recent elections and the coalitions being formed by Biden and Trump ahead of a possible rematch.
Democrats like to point out that they did very well in special elections last year. In fact, Democratic candidates are doing about 4 points better in state and federal legislative special elections in 2023 than Biden did in those same districts in 2020.
These special elections, however, generally have lower turnout. Control of the state's lower house (House of Representatives) and upper house (State Senate) was at stake when comparing these special elections to Virginia's regular state legislative elections held in early November. And although Democrats won control of both, Virginia is also a state that Biden won by 10 points in 2020.
Democrats beat Republicans by less than 2 points in the popular vote for both houses. That's more than 8 points worse than what Biden did in Virginia in 2020.
Similarly, Republicans won the House popular vote by about 3 points in the 2022 elections. A 6-point change from the House popular vote in 2020, when Democrats won by about 3 points. Midterm elections have much higher turnout than special elections.
The question that remains is why Republicans are doing better when turnout is higher. From an issue standpoint, many Democrats remain upset about the overturn of Roe v. Wade. Wade in 2022. It was from that moment on that it was possible to see Democrats do better in special elections.
This may be why there is evidence to suggest that Biden voters are more likely to turn out than Trump voters in the current era, even when considering demographics.
Furthermore, there have been major changes in political alliances in recent years. The most obvious is that the Democratic base is more dependent than ever on college-educated voters. Voter turnout and education are highly correlated, as more educated voters are more likely to show up at the polls.
When analysts talk about education being a dividing line in the electorate, we are usually focusing specifically on white voters. First, Trump is doing better among black and Hispanic voters than he did four years ago. As a group, these voters are less likely to have a college degree than white voters.
Second, Trump is doing better among black and brown voters without a college degree than among those with a college degree. Biden, for his part, is maintaining his strength among white voters with college degrees.
These factors combined are widening the education gap and causing Trump to perform better among voters who are less likely to go to the polls as a group.
The other demographic shift at play is that there have been a number of polls in which Trump is doing disproportionately better among young voters than he was four years ago. Younger voters are less likely to show up at the polls than older voters across all demographic groups.
In short, there is still a lot that remains unknown about 2024. But if the polls are considered certain for next November, then many of the traditional theories about how turnout could impact the election could be wrong.
It's just another issue to pay attention to in this upcoming year, a turbulent 2024.
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Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
