Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine backfired on several fronts. But one of the most disastrous consequences of all for the Russian president is the increasingly likely prospect of Finland joining NATO.
The Nordic nation is expected to announce its interest in NATO membership this week after its Foreign Relations Committee drafts a response to the government’s security report – which includes the option to join the alliance.
After that, the Finnish parliament will hold an extraordinary debate on the approval of the safety report’s recommendations.
At this point, it is very likely that NATO will invite the country to talk about joining the alliance.
It is widely believed that this would happen very quickly, as Finland already meets most of the criteria and it is highly unlikely that any NATO member will object.
Several recent opinion polls have shown that at least 60% of Finns are now in favor of joining NATO, a big jump from the average of around 30% in recent years.
If this happens as expected, this country of less than 6 million people will have redrawn the European security map in a way that was previously inconceivable and could have tremendous consequences for Russia.
Before Putin invaded Ukraine, he made clear his belief that NATO had gotten too close to Russia and should be stripped of its borders in the 1990s, before some of Russia’s neighbors or former Soviet states joined the alliance. military.
Russia currently shares some 1,215 kilometers of land border with five NATO members, according to the alliance. Finland’s accession would mean that a nation with which Russia shares a 1280-kilometer border would become formally aligned militarily with the United States.
Not only would that be bad news for the Kremlin, but the addition of Finland would be a big boon for NATO. Despite its relatively small population, Finland is a serious military power that has been unofficially aligned with the West for decades. Its military has for decades used equipment purchased from the United States that is compatible with NATO allies, meaning they can easily join NATO missions if they so choose.
Ideology of “Survival”
Many believe that the only reason Finland did not join the alliance before the Ukraine crisis was simple pragmatism.
“Finnish security has always been based on two concepts: first geography and history; second idealism and realism,” Alexander Stubb, former prime minister of Finland, told CNN .
“In an ideal world, we want to cooperate with Russia, of which we cannot but be our geographical neighbor. But we also know from history that the greatest realistic threat to our national security is Russia. Over time, the reality that Russia is willing to create the most chaos in our region has become even clearer, so joining NATO becomes the pragmatic option,” he said.
Historically, Finland has navigated these competing realities while satisfying Russia’s security concerns, however irrational they may be, while maintaining high defense spending and a standing army compatible with Western allies.
“The idea that a Western country would invade Russia has always been crazy, but we try to minimize those concerns by increasing trade and cooperating in other areas,” said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, lead researcher on global security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
He adds, however, that in addition to policies such as conscription – all Finnish men can be called up for military service – and high defense spending, Finnish politicians have consistently sold the public the idea that the idealistic way of life of Finland must be maintained at all costs.
“Finland’s default ideology has been survival. In the last 100 years, we have become a strong and sovereign country with high standards of living. We had to sacrifice land to keep the peace,” Salonius-Pasternak said.
“It is therefore vitally important that our way of life survives, whether through pragmatic diplomacy or taking a tougher stance against our greatest threat.”
There is no doubt that Finland’s accession to NATO would be a huge blow to Putin. Not only would it mean that extra 1280 kilometers of shared border with the alliance, but it would symbolically go further in uniting the anti-Putin coalition that has emerged since the invasion of Ukraine. Countries that were once neutral are now providing funding and weapons to Ukraine and Putin is an international pariah with fewer allies every day.
It would also expand NATO’s influence from northern Europe to the Arctic, an area that is becoming increasingly important geopolitically due to its natural resources, strategic location and numerous territorial claims – including Russia, Finland and the US.
Sweden, which is Finland’s neighbor to the west, is also considering joining the alliance – and Finland’s membership would make it even more likely, as the two countries have been on a similar journey since the Ukraine crisis began.
Russian answer
Of course, there are concerns about how Russia might react to Finland expressing its desire to join NATO.
Martti Kari, who previously served as Finland’s assistant defense intelligence chief, told CNN that Russia is already starting a disinformation campaign against it.
“The main theme is that Finland is a Nazi country, because we fought the Soviet Union in World War II on the side of Nazi Germany,” he said.
He predicts that Russia could violate Finland’s airspace and disrupt its activities at sea, including maritime transport, as well as increase its intelligence operations against the country.
Håkon Lunde Saxi, an associate professor at the Norwegian Defense University College, thinks that any move towards Finland’s membership of NATO “would likely result in a Russian military build-up along the new alliance border with Russia, which in itself would not be beneficial.” to Finland or European security.”
However, he believes the benefits would far outweigh the “possible negative consequences of a slightly larger Russian military presence along the Finnish border”.
And despite concerns about what would happen in the interim period, where Finland would not be protected by NATO membership but would be in negotiations, several officials told CNN who expect the members of the alliance, mainly the United Kingdom and the United States, to guarantee Finnish security during this process.
Of course, nothing is certain until Finland takes the first step to declare its intention. But with public approval, political support and Russia providing every reason for another of its neighbors to join its hated rival, there is little doubt that Putin’s gamble to lessen NATO’s influence in Europe has backfired.
Source: CNN Brasil
I’m James Harper, a highly experienced and accomplished news writer for World Stock Market. I have been writing in the Politics section of the website for over five years, providing readers with up-to-date and insightful information about current events in politics. My work is widely read and respected by many industry professionals as well as laymen.
