Analysis: If Israeli troops enter the Gaza Strip, what happens next?

Tal and Zak have no idea how long they will stay in what Israelis call the “Gaza envelope,” the area in southern Israel that was attacked by Hamas terrorists two weeks ago. It could take weeks, it could take months, they said.

“It’s the same for everyone. Nobody knows,” Zak told CNN in a military camp not far from the border of the Gaza Strip.

The two young soldiers, whose surnames CNN does not disclose for security reasons, they serve in an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) artillery unit that was transferred to the area after Hamas militants killed 1,400 people and kidnapped around 200 on October 7.

The unit is part of a buildup of Israeli troops and military material on the Gaza border. In addition to its regular force, the IDF also called up 300,000 reservists who reported to their bases within hours. An Israeli ground incursion into the Gaza Strip now appears inevitable.

On Thursday (19), the Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant , told troops gathered near the border that they would “soon see” the territory “from the inside” and said that Gaza “will never be the same again”. But what this operation will be like remains unknown.

The IDF could launch a full-scale invasion or conduct more precise raids aimed at recovering hostages and targeting Hamas operatives. What happens after that is an even bigger question.

While the Israeli leadership talks about the need to get rid of Hamas, the plan for the future of the Gaza Strip and its more than 2 million inhabitants remains unknown.

“There is a consensus that any option other than the total elimination of Hamas would be terrible, not just for Israel, but for the entire region, and even globally,” he said. Harel Chorev senior researcher in Middle Eastern studies at Tel Aviv University.

“What this basically means is destroying the infrastructure there, the city under the city – what we call the Gaza City Metro,” Chorev told CNN referring to the vast labyrinth of tunnels used to transport people and goods, store rockets and ammunition, and house Hamas command and control centers.

“That means breaking their backbone by any measure and, of course, destroying the leadership, in Gaza and elsewhere,” he added.

But Hasan Alhasan Middle East policy researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the plan to annihilate Hamas could be dangerous and complicated – and could have unforeseen consequences.

“As Hamas is deeply rooted in Gaza, in its society and in its geography, to defeat it, Israel would have to carry out permanent topographic and demographic changes in the Gaza Strip – and this is already happening,” he told CNN .

VIDEO – Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza would be a guerrilla war, says professor

Humanitarian disaster

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have told all civilians in northern Gaza to go south as they continue to carry out airstrikes on the territory.

This order created a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said this Saturday (21) that around 1.4 million people have been displaced in the Gaza Strip – more than 60% of the territory’s entire population.

Gaza has been under blockade by Israel and Egypt for years, but after the Hamas attack, Israel also cut off its electricity, food, water and fuel supplies.

Israel says it restored water supplies on Oct. 15, but without electricity to run the pumping station, water authorities in Gaza say they can’t even tell if the water has been restored, much less pump it.

“The concern, especially in Egypt, is that Israel’s strategy of making the humanitarian situation very difficult in Gaza is ultimately intended to force a mass expulsion of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to the Egyptian Sinai,” Alhasan said. , adding that Egypt has the support of all Arab states to the extent that it would not allow this.

“Jordanians are also concerned that if we see a mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, it would set a precedent and that Israel’s right-wing government would try to resolve the Palestinian issue once and for all by expelling them en masse from Gaza to Egypt and from the West Bank to Jordan,” he added.

Until now, Israel has maintained that it is fighting a war against Hamas and not against the civilians of Gaza. But an IDF spokesman told CNN that, although they try to avoid civilian casualties, they are inevitable in urban warfare.

The lieutenant colonel Peter Lerner I told CNN that with “the perspective of ground operations”, the IDF remained focused on defeating Hamas.

“It is our role to ensure that Hamas can never hold the power of government, of terrorism, as it did,” he said.

VIDEO – Israel says it has hit more than 100 Hamas targets; deaths in Gaza exceed 4 thousand

“The fairest war”

The huge military buildup around the Gaza Strip border is clearly visible – as is the high disposition among the troops.

Near the camp where Tal and Zak are staying, volunteers from across Israel set up an impromptu parade for passing soldiers, serving food and handing out soft drinks, religious items, cigarettes and – most importantly, according to some of the soldiers – good coffee.

Rabbi Yitzhak, a military rabbi, has been traveling along the border of the Gaza Strip, visiting troops and offering his encouragement.

“I’m here to strengthen Soldiers so they can focus on their job…as time goes on they may get tired, I want to make sure they know we love them and appreciate them. They are nervous, but they are strong,” he said, adding that his main goal is to boost the soldiers’ morale so they can “finish the job.”

Not that he needs to do much. The brutality of the Hamas terrorist attack shook Israel to its core and the sheer number of its victims made it personal for most.

“I don’t think there’s a person in this country who doesn’t know someone who was killed,” Tal, the artillery unit soldier, told CNN .

A young reservist, who was called back just a year after finishing his mandatory military service, said the war Israel was waging against Hamas was “the most just war imaginable.”

“There is nothing fairer than this – they murdered innocent civilians. That’s why we’re here,” he said, asking that his name remain private as he is not officially authorized to speak to the media.

He and the other young people he served with were gathered near the Gaza border, training for what’s to come – whatever that may be.

“We are ready, but we hope it ends soon,” he added.

Strong grip

What is clear is that for people in the Gaza Strip this will not end anytime soon. What happens to them after the operation is over is anyone’s guess.

Most Israeli politicians have remained vague about their plans for the territory, suggesting that in the future it could look more like the West Bank.

Hamas, an Islamic organization with a military wing, has controlled the Gaza Strip since it won a landslide victory in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections – the last vote held in the region – and then violently expelled Fatah, the faction that makes up the backbone of the Gaza Strip. of the Palestinian Authority in 2007.

Unlike some other Palestinian factions, Hamas refuses to engage with Israel. The group is also in a political war with the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank and is involved in security coordination and talks with Israel.

Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union and Israel, but it also runs religious and social welfare programs in the Gaza Strip, which is partly how it maintains control over the population. Therefore, if Israel succeeds in removing Hamas, it will have to replace the group with an alternative government.

Avi Dichter former head of the Israeli security agency and current Minister of Agriculture, said that what Israel wants to achieve in the Gaza Strip is the same level of security control that it currently has in the West Bank, where it maintains complete access on its own terms.

“Today, whenever we have a military problem everywhere in the West Bank. We’re there,” Dichter told CNN . “Remember that in Gaza there is no administration, we need to build another administration.”

Harel Chorev the Middle East expert, told CNN that the only way to rebuild Gaza is through the implementation of a long-term plan, something like the Marshal Plan that helped rebuild the economy in post-war Europe with the aim of containing the spread of communism.

“It will be a similar situation to the post-Second World War situation in the Gaza Strip in terms of destruction, so it will have to be taken care of,” he said.

He said he believed there would be international cooperation in rebuilding Gaza, because international aid worth tens of millions of dollars has been delivered to the territory for years — but much of it has been misused by Hamas, he said.

“We need to understand how much damage is inflicted on all Palestinians by Hamas. I was talking to a Palestinian Authority official and their message is clear: ‘destroy them, destroy them, this time, Israel must destroy Hamas, otherwise we are finished,’” he said. “Of course, publicly, they condemn Israel,” he added. The Palestinian Authority is controlled by Fatah, Hamas’ political rival.

However, Alhasan said securing international aid could be difficult if Israel goes ahead with its plan to invade Gaza.

“I think it would be very difficult to ensure the cooperation of Arab states in the post-Israeli incursion scenario, because they were not on board from the beginning… I think it will depend on whether Israel opts for a total approach, the annexation of Gaza, or whether it opts for something else “, he said.

He said the biggest risk is that Israel’s tough approach – which could lead to high civilian casualties – will only lead to Hamas being replaced by another extremist group.

“This is what militant groups do. They cause an overreaction, and that overreaction helps further radicalization and essentially allows them to continue to recruit people to continue to receive support, because the further we go down the path of violence, the more it seems like the only answer is violence.” , points out the researcher.

The IDF campaign has already left more than 4,000 people dead in Gaza.

Chorev believes that an international effort to economically rebuild Gaza could break this cycle of violence.

“If all this international money that was invested in projects [do Hamas] could go into education, into welfare, into industry… there are excellent people there [na Faixa de Gaza] and the prospects would be better”, he said.

As they help their unit fire more missiles toward Gaza, aiming to eliminate Hamas targets one by one, Tal and Zak don’t think about the future, not even beyond the next day.

In fact, Zak told CNN , they try not to think too much: “We try hard not to have time off. Because if you don’t do anything, your mind goes to places you don’t want to be. All the friends we lost, the family, many of us lost close relatives and friends, some even boyfriends and girlfriends.”

Source: CNN Brasil

You may also like