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Analysis: India adopts anti-war speech, but actions support Putin regime

When India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin that “today’s era is not one of war” last month, the West took the comment as a sign that the world’s greatest democracy was finally coming off the wall. about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron praised Modi, and the White House welcomed what he called a “declaration of principle”.

But the reality, analysts say, is less straightforward.

Rather than severing economic ties with the Kremlin, India has undermined Western sanctions by increasing its purchases of Russian oil, coal and fertilizer — giving Putin a vital financial salvation.

New Delhi has repeatedly abstained from votes condemning Russia at the United Nations (UN) – giving Moscow a “veneer of international legitimacy”.

In addition, in August, India participated in Russia’s large-scale military exercises alongside China, Belarus, Mongolia and Tajikistan – a situation in which Moscow paraded its vast arsenal.

Last week, India refrained from another draft UN resolution condemning Russia for its fake referendums in four regions of Ukraine, which were used as a pretext to illegally annex Ukrainian territory – significantly raising the stakes in the war.

India is “deeply disturbed” by the events in Ukraine, said Ruchira Kamboj, the nation’s permanent representative to the UN, but did not assign blame and called for an “immediate ceasefire and resolution of the conflict”.

This apparent contradiction exemplifies India’s unique position in the war: verbally distancing itself from Russia, while continuing to maintain crucial ties with Moscow.

Modi’s “stronger language for Putin” must be seen in the context of rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices, and the “difficulties they were creating for other countries”, said Deepa Ollapally, a research professor and director of the Rising Powers Initiative at the Elliott School of International Relations at George Washington University.

“There is a certain level of impatience (for India) with the intensification of the war. There is a sense that Putin is pushing India’s boundaries because, in a way, it has put itself at risk. And it is not a comfortable position for the country,” he added.

“A Tale of Two Indies”

As Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border in December last year, Modi received Putin in New Delhi during the 21st Annual India-Russia Summit.

“My dear friend President Vladimir Putin, your attachment to India and your personal commitment symbolize the importance of India-Russia relations and I am very grateful to you for that,” he said.

New Delhi has had strong ties to Moscow since the Cold War, and India remains heavily dependent on the Kremlin for military equipment — a vital link given ongoing tensions on its shared Himalayan border with an increasingly assertive China.

But, according to analysts, India is concerned that Putin’s growing isolation could bring Moscow and Beijing closer — and that calls for treading carefully.

New Delhi’s contorted maneuvers in its stance on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine were in evidence when, alongside China, it participated in military exercises in Vostok – a move criticized by its Western partners.

“This can be seen as a tale of two Indies. On the one hand, they are against China and then they are exercising together with China and Russia, giving Russia a certain legitimacy,” Ollapally said.

At least on the surface, India and China also appear to have similar positions on the Ukraine war. Both positioned themselves as neutral spectators rather than vocal opponents. Both also called for peace – but refused to condemn the invasion.

But that’s where the similarities seem to end, analysts say.

China condemned Western sanctions and blamed the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for the conflict, echoing Russia’s view that NATO precipitated the crisis by expanding eastward.

Chinese state media also amplified Russian talking points and disinformation. India, on the other hand, has avoided criticizing the military bloc and used stronger language to call for peace as the war intensifies.

But despite India’s growing proximity to the West, it is prioritizing dangers in its own backyard, analysts say.

“China remains the biggest threat on India’s borders and India would not want the Russia-China alliance to become too strong,” said Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow at the New Delhi Center for Policy Research. “This is not in India’s interest.”

Principled stance

US President Joe Biden has used the war from the beginning to bolster his global campaign for democracy.

“Ukraine and its people are on the front lines fighting to save their nation. And their courageous resistance is part of a larger struggle for essential democratic principles that unite all free people,” he said during a speech in March.

While New Delhi’s ties to the West have grown ever closer since Modi’s election in 2014, India, the world’s largest democracy with 1.3 billion people, does not think the same way as the US.

For years after its independence, the country’s international relations were defined by its policy of non-alignment, the Cold War-era stance that avoided taking the side of the US or the Soviet Union.

Despite India’s contemporary alliance with the West and US pressure to take a stronger stand, that policy continues to work, analysts say. And according to Singh, the actions taken “have been to protect their own interests.”

Speaking behind the scenes during a face-to-face meeting with Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit last month, Modi said the world faces challenges, including food and energy shortages, that particularly affect developing countries.

“I know today’s era is not one of war and we’ve spoken to you many times on the phone on the subject that democracy, diplomacy and dialogue are all these things that touch the world,” Modi told Putin.

And under Modi’s government – which has been convicted of cracking down on free speech and discriminatory policies towards minority groups – India risks being called a hypocrite for doing so, according to Singh.

“India has been very hesitant to raise questions about democracy because it has been repeatedly criticized for its authoritarian nature and undemocratic acts against religious minorities,” Singh warned.

But while Ollapally pointed out that what India was doing was “understandable” as a developing nation, New Delhi could do more to uphold the democratic principles outlined in the preamble to the country’s constitution.

“I think there’s certainly more that (India) could do on that front, at least in its statements, because it really doesn’t have much to lose by making those statements.”

Source: CNN Brasil

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