Iran launched an air strike against Israeli territory this Tuesday (1st), in response to Israel’s recent ground operation in southern Lebanon. International analyst Fernanda Magnotta assesses that this Iranian action seeks to give a new meaning to the Israeli movement, warning of possible developments and escalation of the conflict in the region.
According to Magnotta, Israel characterizes its operation in Lebanon as an isolated and targeted action, aimed at mitigating Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities.
However, the analyst highlights that previous attempts by Israel to occupy the region or demobilize Hezbollah were not successful, citing as an example the invasion of Lebanon in 1982, which resulted in an unsuccessful 18-year occupation.
Possible escalation of the conflict
The expert warns of the possibility of the conflict escalating beyond initial control, both on the Israeli and Iranian sides.
Magnotta questions whether Iran’s attack would be just a one-off response, as occurred in April, or whether it could be the start of a war with the potential for continued intensification.
In this scenario, the role of the United States and other international actors gains relevance. As Israel’s historic ally, the US has reaffirmed its support by providing financial, military, training and intelligence-sharing resources.
However, Magnotta notes that Americans have been cautious, avoiding getting directly involved in the conflict.
Geopolitical implications
The analyst highlights that more direct participation by the United States in the conflict could provoke the entry of other actors allied with Iran, especially Russia.
This could result in a geopolitical dispute in the region, significantly increasing the complexity of the conflict.
Magnotta concludes by warning of the risks of a possible escalation, which could transform a regional conflict into a dispute of global proportions, involving powers such as the United States and Russia, a scenario that none of the actors involved wish to see come to fruition.
This content was originally published in Analysis: Iran tries to reframe Israel’s ground attack in Lebanon with air offensive on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
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