Hurricane Milton, which is approaching the coast of the United States, could have a significant impact on the American presidential race, with less than a month to go until the elections scheduled for November 5th. International affairs analyst Fernanda Magnotta, in an interview with CNN Brazilhighlighted how large-scale natural disasters can reshape voters’ perceptions of political candidates and leaders.
Magnotta emphasized: “Large natural disasters, as is the case with this hurricane in particular, are very important, also because they can redesign the perception of a certain public in relation to candidates, leaders, in short, the way these leaders deal with emergency situations.”
The analyst recalled the impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which severely affected the image of then-president George W. Bush, marking what many considered ‘the beginning of the end’ of his government. Criticism of the crisis management and the difficulty in organizing resources for humanitarian assistance and reconstruction significantly harmed the republican administration.
Current electoral scenario
Citing recent data from statistician Nate Silver, Magnotta presented the current electoral scenario in the US: a tight race with a 55% probability for Kamala Harris and 45% for Donald Trump. The analyst highlighted that Harris’s lead is recent and tight, with few undecided voters remaining.
The Biden administration, of which Harris is a part, will face the challenge of dealing with the damage caused by Hurricane Milton, in addition to other global crises. This puts the leadership and emergency management capabilities of the current administration to the test.
On the other hand, Trump, outside the government, has the opportunity to exploit the episode to point out possible weaknesses in the Democratic administration. Magnotta warned about the spread of misinformation, citing Trump’s recent false statements about the use of federal resources.
“We are facing a very decisive period, super final stretch, race defined at the comma, indecision on the horizon and a phenomenon like this that will test the ability of these actors to remain balanced within their strategies”, says the analyst about this moment decisive.
This content was originally published in Analysis: Natural disasters can reshape the perception of American voters on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
