Analysis: Netanyahu is under pressure and has fewer and fewer options

They were sons, daughters, brothers and sisters of a nation. No wonder the discovery on Saturday of six dead hostages in Gaza has set Israelis’ blood boiling.

The nation feels on the brink of a major turning point.

With mounting protests and union strikes raging, the coming weeks for Israel are unpredictable. These well-tested democratic tools of change have brought down governments before, but it’s worth remembering that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is an extraordinary political survivor.

Even now, Netanyahu and the far-right nationalist members of his cabinet are working to end legal protests and strikes through a court order, which appears to have been successful, at least in the short term.

However, despite the outcome being unclear, this tumultuous moment has been building for months.

Galvanized by growing frustration as Netanyahu waits for a deal to bring the remaining 101 hostages out of Gaza, including 35 believed dead according to the Israeli prime minister’s official figures, it is Hamas, not surprisingly, that appears to have the decisive say.

Its leader, Yahya Sinwar, is exploiting every weakness of Netanyahu’s that he can manipulate, the most powerful of which is his vulnerability to public opinion, as Israel prepares to mark the anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack in which some 1,200 Israelis were killed and some 250 others were kidnapped and taken to Gaza.

Their actions may be calculated to weaken Netanyahu’s resolve, and they are having a predictable impact.

Unlike the Palestinians in Gaza, Israelis can rise up to challenge their leadership. The nightly clashes between protesters and authorities on Sunday on Tel Aviv’s usually busy eight-lane Ayalon Highway were a demonstration of that.

As flames and thick smoke enveloped sticks and tires on the roads, I watched as a young man, blue spray paint in hand, scrawled his message to the prime minister in bold letters on the roadside wall: “Hostages or revolt.”

Nearby, two teenage girls speaking articulate English told me they had never been to a protest before, but the deaths of Goldberg-Polin and the other five hostages had forced them to attend tonight.

When I asked whether they thought the protests would change Netanyahu’s mind, without missing a beat, they both told me they doubted it.

It is an issue that concerns the nation, not least because the writing on the wall here has been wrong before. For many, the protests and strikes covered familiar ground, tilted in favor of the government.

Even Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s public condemnation of Netanyahu’s negotiating tactics, emotionally calling him a “disgrace,” revisits earlier divisions within the government.
Last year, Netanyahu fired Gallant for breaking with the government over highly controversial judicial reforms, before rehiring him shortly afterwards.

The difference is that now Gallant and the country are fighting multiple wars: Hamas in the south; a hostile enemy, Hezbollah, on its northern border; an alleged terrorist threat in the West Bank; not to mention an as-yet unpaid threat of retaliation by Iran for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran a month ago.

Netanyahu’s multifaceted challenges, like a juggling act, require constant balance. His unprecedented coalition cabinet is bound together by far-right nationalists Security Minister Itmar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Above all other members of his unruly cabinet, they are the ones who routinely threaten to bring down his coalition if he is seen as softening relations with Hamas. They owe him their enormous influence and would lose it if they overthrew him.

Knowing that their time in government may be limited, they focus their influence on policies such as expanding settlements that build their own base. Toppling Netanyahu would be a shot in the foot for them. That is why they are leading the crackdown on strikes and protests.

At Sunday’s protests, as police on horseback pushed their powerful mounts toward the crowd, many shouted at them: “We are not against you as individual police officers, only against your chief Ben Gvir.”

One potential change will be how courageous protesters feel about the police, emboldened by court orders that Ben Gvir seeks to crack down on them and unions.

How the country’s potentially powerful unions remain united in the face of government pressure to keep the country running will also show which side has the momentum.

Ben Gurion airport appeared to grind to a halt on Monday morning (2), before resuming flight operations a little later. Unions had already shut down Israel’s only major international airport during massive strikes against judicial reform last year.

Much is at stake now. Netanyahu’s short video message on Sunday (1), blaming Hamas for the deaths of the six and the stalling of hostage negotiations, is indicative of his efforts to calm down and limit the damage to him.

His unparalleled political survival skills have kept him in office through major protests, and few would be willing to bet that he is about to throw in the towel now. The question is: how long can he hold on?

More days like Sunday, with the nation at a fevered intersection of hurt, frustration and anger, will challenge Netanyahu as never before.

He is not only facing his usual enemies, the country’s liberal left, but also in a tangled fight to the death with the Hamas leader, who has made clear he is prepared to engage in moments of unimaginable brutality to get what he wants.

For Israel, the outlook is bleak: The chances of a cathartic moment of hostage release are dwindling, along with Netanyahu’s political fortunes.

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This content was originally published in Analysis: Netanyahu is under pressure and has fewer and fewer options on the CNN Brasil website.

Source: CNN Brasil

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