Analysis: Niger coup is headache for the West, opportunity for Russia

Days after Niger’s democratically elected president was ousted, thousands of supporters of the military coup packed into the French embassy in the country’s capital to deliver a message to their former colonizer and Western allies.

As President Mohamed Bazoum was held captive by his soldiers at the presidential palace in Niamey, tense scenes unfolded in the street where pro-coup protesters, some waving Russian flags, chanted “Long live Putin” and “Down with France” as a sign on the embassy was overthrown.

The images reverberated through the halls of power at the Elysee Palace in Paris, thousands of miles away. French President Emmanuel Macron threatened retaliation against any attack on French citizens and condemned the coup as “completely illegitimate and deeply dangerous for Nigerians, Niger and the entire region”.

The United States and other Western nations also condemned the coup, and a bloc of West African countries threatened to intervene militarily if Bazoum was not restored to power.

US President Joe Biden called for Bazoum’s immediate release in a written statement commemorating Niger’s Independence Day, saying Washington “stands with the people of Niger” as the country faces a “grave challenge to its democracy”.

The overthrow of Bazoum was just the latest in a series of coups that spanned across Africa. Former French colonies in West and Central Africa have been taken over by military junta in the last three years.

The coups came in the context of a broader struggle between the West and Russia for influence in Africa, where experts say a rising tide of anger at France’s former colonies has left the door wide open for the Kremlin. While there are no signs that Russia helped instigate the Niger rebellion, Moscow has tried to take advantage of anti-Western sentiment in the region in recent years.

US officials warn that the Russian Wagner mercenary group, which helps sustain several military junta in the region, could try to exploit the crisis in Niger. The head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, welcomed the coup and offered to help the country’s new leaders.

As Western countries raced to evacuate their people from Niamey on Wednesday, one of Niger’s coup leaders flew a delegation to neighboring Mali, where hundreds of Wagner contractors are stationed, to seek the ruler’s support. military in that country.

An important western ally

The coup in Niger deprived Western nations, particularly France and the United States, of an important ally in a troubled region.

West Africa’s largest country, Niger has been touted as a democratic success story on the continent and Bazoum has been seen as a crucial partner in the fight against Islamic jihadists in the region.

About 1,100 US troops are stationed in the country, including at a drone base that helps the Nigerian military fight insurgents affiliated with Islamic State and al Qaeda.

The French military also maintains two permanent bases in the Sahel region, one of which is in Niamey. This was the home base for its main Operation Barkhane, a broader French anti-terror initiative targeting militants across the Sahel, including Burkina Faso.

The number of violent events involving Islamic militant groups in the Sahel has doubled since 2021, according to a report published on Monday (31) by the Center for Strategic African Studies, a Pentagon think-tank.

Niger is also one of the main suppliers of uranium to the European Union and produces about 5% of the world’s supply of the mineral, according to the World Nuclear Association.

anti-French reaction

Despite its resource wealth, Niger remains one of the poorest countries in the world. Many Nigerians, especially the younger generation, see France as responsible for their country’s prevailing levels of poverty.

“We came to tell this little Macron from France that Niger belongs to us. It’s up to us to do what we want with Niger, we deal with who we want,” said Maman Sani, a pro-coup protester, to the CNN .

That resentment has morphed into a growing anti-French sentiment that is growing in former French colonies in West and Central Africa, said Oluwole Ojewale, an analyst at the Institute for Security Studies.

“There is a feeling that although France has granted independence… they are still attached to the umbilical cord of France. There is a subtle thought that nothing happens in French-speaking countries without the tacit approval of France,” Ojewale told the CNN .

For decades, Paris has maintained a prominent presence in many African nations stemming from its colonial history on the continent, a relationship known as “Françafrique”.

Françafrique has often been criticized for perpetuating neocolonial practices. For example, few things have sparked more controversy than the Central African Franc or FCA, a currency used by 14 West and Central African nations, including Niger.

Countries using FCA francs are required to store 50% of their currency reserves at the Banque de France, and the currency is pegged to the euro. While Paris says the system promotes economic stability, others say it allows France to exercise control over the economy of countries that use it.

A battle for influence

The wave of anger against the French in their former colonies in Africa presents an opportunity for Russia as it seeks to extend its influence across the continent, said Remi Adekoya, associate professor of politics at the University of York in the United Kingdom.

“When people talked about potential rivals for Western influence in Africa, it was always China,” said Adekoya. “Over the last two years, essentially since the war with Ukraine, Russia has stepped up its efforts, and all of a sudden Russia is back almost as a geopolitical player on the African continent, and Western intelligence services are worried.”

The Wagner group is central to how Russia has maintained and increased its influence in Africa.

Several investigations of CNN , along with research by human rights groups, found the private military company’s association with atrocities perpetrated against civilian populations in Mali and Sudan, where it assisted military joints. Mercenaries have also been tracked in other African nations, including the Central African Republic, Mozambique and Libya.

Wagner founder Prigozhin attributed the coup in Niger to the legacy of colonialism and said his group was capable of dealing with situations like the one unfolding in Niamey, although there are still no signs that his offer has been accepted.

“What happened in Niger has been brewing for years,” Prigozhin said in a message posted on social media. “The former colonizers are trying to keep the people of African countries in check. To keep them in check, the former colonizers are filling these countries with terrorists and various bandit formations. Thus creating a colossal security crisis.”

As the coup unfolded in Niger last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a charm offensive for African leaders at a summit in St Petersburg, where he criticized Western colonialism and wooed attendees with gifts including debt relief. for Somalia, a mobile medical laboratory for Uganda and even a presidential helicopter for the leader of Zimbabwe.

The meeting was less well attended than the Kremlin had expected. Seventeen African heads of state attended, far fewer than the 43 who attended a previous summit in 2019. The low turnout came days after Russia’s cancellation of a Ukrainian grain export deal that angered some African leaders.

The Russian leader defended his withdrawal from the pact, essential for the continent’s food supply, and promised to send free cereals to six African countries.

One recipient was Burkina Faso, where Ibrahim Traore seized power in a coup last October and has since completely distanced his country from France. The 34-year-old is Africa’s youngest head of state and was one of several leaders of the junta at the summit, during which he pledged the “support and friendship of the people of Burkina Faso” to Russia.

“The region is shaken by different people’s desire for change,” Traore said in a speech at the summit. “This has led us to turn our backs on traditional partners and turn to our true friends like Russia, which has supported us through decolonization until today.”

Traore also alluded to the coup in Niger, saying the military was “taking responsibility” for the country, and calling for support for the new junta. “We want the same thing… a multipolar world towards sovereignty and a complete change of partners.”

Traore received a hero’s welcome and was surrounded by a crowd on his return home.

“Military leaders are using anti-French sentiment to stay in power,” said Ojewale, an ISS expert. “They claim to be the new messiahs, but this time, they are wearing Khaki (uniforms). It is anti-French populism.”

Ojewale says Paris has a lot of work to do to stem the tide of anti-French sentiment on the continent.

“The French need to rebuild and repair with French-speaking countries. This is going to be really hard to do. There is a third wave of dispute over Africa. The English are coming. The Chinese are coming. The US is coming, Russia is coming. Everyone wants to do business with Africa”.