Analysis: Nobody knows what to make of Boris Johnson

The question that close observers of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s term have been asking for weeks is: what will it take to topple him?

Last Monday, a long-awaited report by a senior civil servant on a series of meetings held during the Downing Street lockdowns in 2020 and 2021, some with Boris Johnson himself present, delivered a verdict as scathing as any other. national leader would have resigned from office.

There have been “leadership and judgment failures,” concluded civil servant Sue Gray, with a “serious failure” to maintain the standards that are expected of government officials.

The evidence Gray gathered was serious enough for the London Metropolitan Police to launch an investigation.

Johnson may even end up being questioned over allegations that while Downing Street employees held get-togethers with little connection to their workplace activities and got drunk, citizens dutifully followed the rules and Zoomed out of loved ones in state. terminal.

After the report was published, Johnson decided to fight back by falsely accusing opposition Labor leader Keir Starmer, Britain’s former chief prosecutor, of “failing to prosecute” a notorious British pedophile, Jimmy Savile.

The claim — which is discussed in right-wing conspiracy theory circles — has been debunked several times (the decision not to prosecute Savile was made by a regional division of the prosecutor’s office).

Johnson’s failure to take back what he said prompted his policy chief – a longtime adviser and confidant – to resign in disgust on Thursday night, issuing a vehement statement that reverberated in UK government circles. United.

Four more high-ranking officials resigned over the next few hours—some for different reasons, but it gave the impression that Downing Street was in freefall.

At the time of publication, Johnson holds back. And predictions of him giving in have been prematurely made many times before. But now it may be that Johnson’s Downing Street days are coming to an end.

Once seen as a politician with a near-mythical ability to win over opponents with natural charm, Johnson’s personal approval ratings and those of his conservative party’s polls have been steadily falling since the so-called “Partygate” scandal erupted last year.

No one around Johnson or in his group is pretending the situation isn’t too bad, possibly terminal.

However, the sad reality for the numerous conservatives who would like to see Johnson behind his back is that they have no idea if they are strong enough to remove him from power. And that may be what keeps Johnson in office, after all.

Certainly, there is political will to commit regicide, but there is no clear alternative – either in terms of personnel or ideology – to defying the king.

To depose a Conservative leader, 15% of the parliamentary party must submit letters of no confidence.

Despite much talk about these plots, the limit has not yet been reached. This is not because of any overwhelming support or loyalty to Johnson. It’s just that his most vocal critics are not leaders of groups within the party.

The vast majority of conservatives who spoke to the CNN thinks that if a vote were to be triggered it would be more by accident and not by design. In fact, most are resigned, after months of things getting worse before they get better and, for now, not much can be done about it.

Why? Several Conservative members of parliament from different wings of the party said they were exhausted, confused, angry and depressed. Those who spoke to CNNdid so on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, so that they could be as honest as possible.

“It’s all terrible, but nobody really knows what to do,” says a senior Conservative lawmaker. “I’m not sure removing him is the best idea (because) all alternatives are a huge and untested risk,” the lawmaker adds, referring not only to the individuals who might replace Johnson, but also the ideology they would bring. to the government.

Even those who believe Johnson needs to be removed from office before the next general election do not agree on when that should happen.

A government minister who did not want to embarrass Johnson, but who accepted that his departure this year was necessary and inevitable, said that “most in this field want to keep (Johnson) in place until the full report by Gray or the police is published. , or even after the local elections in May”.

Efforts to remove Johnson from office are likely to pick up pace if the police or Gray’s full report – which will be presented once detectives complete their investigation – come to the conclusion that the prime minister has broken the law, misled parliament or been involved. into some other kind of indefensible behavior.

However, no one knows when that date will arrive, and it may not be before the next election test for Johnson’s Conservative Party, local elections in early May.

If the Conservatives suffer huge losses in these polls, it will be very difficult not to attribute them to Johnson. There is no doubt that the election campaigns of opposition parties will be almost entirely centered on the prime minister, his reliability and his personal conduct.

In any case, it seems that the preferred window to replace Johnson, among those who oppose him, is the parliamentary summer recess, when Westminster largely closes. This gives time for a proper leadership contest, as well as time for a new leader to build their platform before the next general election scheduled in May 2024.

As simple as it sounds, there’s one small problem for those seeking a smooth transition of power: Johnson and his allies don’t want to give up and believe they can hold out, come what may.

Several advisers and ministerial allies in Johnson’s inner circle told CNN who considered saying that the conspirators were bluffing and asking for a vote of confidence in the prime minister with an ultimatum: support me or fire me.

Historically, this has been an effective way for embattled politicians to strengthen themselves. However, Johnson’s allies are confident that domestic opposition is so weak that such drastic action is unnecessary.

“Put it this way, if the Royal Mail trusted MPs to buy stamps to send letters, it would go bankrupt very quickly,” said a key ally.

A cabinet source told CNN that “support me or fire me implies that he is fighting from a position of weakness, which we simply don’t believe he is”.

Even Johnson’s most critics agree, at least in part, with this analysis. A former minister said “summer may be too late, they are missing the window to get rid of him now”, citing frustration among voters over the government being paralyzed by the scandal.

A conservative critic of the prime minister said the best hope of removing Johnson sooner or later would be an “organic, uncoordinated” submission of letters from lawmakers who accidentally created a momentum where “things would go downhill quickly”. The critic admitted that this was an illusion, however.

Weeks after Partygate — and countless mistakes by Johnson himself — the Conservatives find themselves in jail.

They know Johnson is hurting the party. They know that trying to take him out will be a bloody, public war that they could lose.

They know there’s no guarantee that firing him will improve anything: Johnson, after all, is probably the only politician in the country who defies gravity so regularly that it’s not impossible that he could weather the scandal and still go on to win elections.

Furthermore, a new leader may be less effective and hand over the keys to 10 Downing Street to another party in the next election.

Everything is so murky and confusing that few at the top of the Conservative Party seem to have any idea what to do.

The longer this continues, the more lawmakers will find themselves hamstrung by any public stance they might take – for Johnson, against Johnson, or remarkably silent. And meanwhile, their leader continues to stagger, protesting that his beating is just an open wound.