Analysis: Nordic countries wonder if they will be next on Putin’s list

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has done more to unify Western Europe than almost any event since the end of World War II.

Neutral nations provided Ukrainians with weapons, governments that for years failed to meet their NATO defense spending obligations made spectacular turnarounds, and countries that had deep economic ties to Russia went further in severing the bond than anyone had seriously anticipated. just over a month ago.

The West’s almost unprecedented drive in sanctions, political and military action has left many in Europe, despite the horrors of Putin’s war, optimistic that the continent will emerge better equipped to deal with security threats.

Nowhere is this truer than in the three Nordic nations that sit on the Scandinavian Peninsula: Norway, Sweden and Finland.

The fate of these three countries was brought into focus by the crisis in Ukraine due to the unique relationship between them, the rest of Europe and Russia.

Both Norway and Finland share land borders with Russia, although Norway’s is significantly smaller, at just under 200 kilometers, compared to Finland’s border at nearly 1,290 kilometers. The westernmost of the three, Norway is a member of NATO but not in the European Union, while Finland and Sweden are in the EU but not in NATO.

All three nations have historically supported a non-confrontational approach to Russia since the break-up of the Soviet Union due to their proximity. What’s more, all three are also members of the EU’s Schengen area, which means there is borderless travel between the three countries.

It is these last two facts that have played a significant role in the major overhaul of European security over the past three weeks: how can you have a non-confrontational policy when you also simultaneously share a piece of open land with Russia?

A high-ranking European defense official told CNN that “if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, we are already asking the question of who will be next?”. They added that because of the open borders between the three, any compromise of the Finnish border would be “traumatic” for the peninsula.

Active talks, once seen by Sweden and Finland as a risky act of provocation against Russia, are now taking place in both countries about NATO membership. And, along with neighboring Norway, both are throwing non-confrontation out the window.

“Finland and Sweden suddenly broke with long-standing positions not to export weapons to war zones and sending supplies to Ukraine was the biggest shock for Europeans in terms of the Nordic response — and I suspect for Putin,” said Charly Salonius- Pasternak, a leading researcher on global security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

He anticipates that we may see even bolder moves of the three due to commitments made in the Nordic Defense Cooperation (Nordefco) Vision 2025 document, which lays out plans for closer military cooperation between five Nordic nations that have different relationships. with NATO and the EU.

“If suddenly Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland are stockpiling weapons and units in other countries and coordinating their actions, then we are in tough security territory operating across EU and NATO borders, which will really make life more difficult for Russia,” said Salonius-Pasternak.

The severity and robustness of the Nordic response raised the prospect of Finland joining NATO.

Alexander Stubb, the former prime minister of Finland, believes that NATO membership is much more likely because Putin has destroyed the careful balance that Finland has maintained for years.

“Strategically, we have always wanted to continue joining NATO in our pocket as a deterrent to deter Russia from aggressive behavior. We kept the balance of our armed forces being NATO-compatible even though they were not alliance members,” Stubb told CNN.

However, he believes Putin’s actions made that balance impossible. “Finland is driven by what I call rational fear. We can see Russia’s aggression and we don’t want to be alone like we were in WWII.”

While NATO membership is an important statement, there is an argument to be made that it makes little difference in a world where there is universal revulsion at Putin’s actions.

“For years, Finland and Sweden have taken steps to mitigate the fact that they are not in NATO, strengthening ties with the US, UK and the rest of the transatlantic community,” says Håkon Lunde Saxi, an associate professor at the Defense University. from Norway.

He says things like Nordefco and Nordic nations cooperating more closely on security make the region less vulnerable in a way that, in some ways, transcends EU and NATO membership.

“The most powerful message of the last few weeks has been unity,” said Saxi.

“First Denmark and Sweden sent lethal equipment to Ukraine, then Finland and Norway followed suit. The urgency of the situation is to ensure that this kind of cooperation is accelerated, which makes it more possible for us to protect ourselves against any opponent,” he added.

It must be difficult for Putin and his accomplices to understand, but his barbaric war in Ukraine has galvanized parts of Europe that once bowed to accommodate Russia in previously unthinkable actions.

However the horror ends, he may wake up to a very different Europe that is almost unrecognizable to the one he managed to intimidate with gas and rhetoric. And some of the most vocal opponents may be waiting at his door.

Source: CNN Brasil

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