In the end, it is the Kremlin plan that is being executed, and it seems that the White House can do little about it.
The decision of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of sending Defense Minister Rustam Umarov to meet with a low -ranking Russian delegation in Istanbul was a difficult choice, forced by the need.
In the audience there is a man: US President Donald Trump.
Kiev needs to show that he is willing to take any step to promote any kind of peace, otherwise Trump risks realizing that pro-kremlin voices around him are increasing the volume, completely tiring the processes and/or limiting help to Ukraine.
But ultimately the peace process is happening just as Russia wants. Slowly and with Kremlin as its planner.
Last week, since France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland were on the side of Ukraine and demanded a 30-day unconditional ceasefire from Monday (12), we found a lot about the true emotions of Putin and Trump.
Firstly, the main revelation is that Kremlin is not afraid of new sanctions, European pressure and is not persuaded by Trump.
For now, Russian President Vladimir Putin sees the possible domestic traps of an appearance alongside the US President and his Ukrainian enemy as much larger than the possible damage that Trump’s wrath can cause.
Your rejection of this initiative is a calculated risk that may be worth it.
Trump’s reaction – suggest that “nothing will happen” until he and Putin meet – throws all the expectations of diplomacy until the two have a bilateral summit.
This allows Putin to follow any path with freedom, knowing that the White House chief really believes there may be progress until the two presidents meet personally.
It is not impossible for a bilateral gathering to happen soon, or even that conversations in Istanbul on Friday (16) can generate a leader summit over the weekend.
But it is likely that Putin is enjoying seeing the peace process moving on with sufficient false sincerity so that the White House does not abandon him.
Why haste? Their strengths are accumulating near the eastern front line, clearly with a greater Russian strategic goal in mind.
Putin’s decision to reject Trump’s proposals to attend reveals two key aspects of his thinking.
He was willing to support the new “massive sanctions” that France threatened to impose by rejecting the ceasefire-and then the Istanbul summit as well.
And probably also predicted and bet correctly on Trump’s limited anger.
The Kremlin head was even willing to risk three days of speculation – and thus reject Trump’s persuasion – about his presence, keeping the world waiting for the composition of the Russian delegation in Istanbul.
Putin may have negotiated a bilateral agreement with Trump as part of the negotiations with Turkey, or explicit conditions or concessions before a presidential dome, or may not have the slightest intention to accept Zelensky’s offer.
We may never know.
Zelensky now faces an embarrassing moment, during which he needs to be lurked for negotiations if they suddenly intensify, without being seen awaiting Putin’s next movement.
A convenient-pre-planned dome, he said-waits for him in Albania for Friday, but then he needs to urgently return to the war.
It is slowly becoming evident that Trump can continue to dodge the sanctions and additional consequences for Russia that Europe and its White House have hinted.
The limited and “technical” nature of the Russian team in Istanbul will provide enough reasons for Trump to maintain the hope of progress and postpone the intensification of pain for Moscow.
Negotiations are likely to drag on, with Kremlin presenting a series of maximalist demands and Ukraine furiously demanding a ceasefire that Russia continually rejects.
Even with the addition of Trump high officials on Friday, there will probably be minimal progress and conversations about new negotiations.
And that’s exactly how Kremlin wants.
This content was originally published in analysis: Peace Process in Ukraine advances as Russia wants: slowly on CNN Brazil.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
