Russia is watching US policy like a hawk.
That was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s message to reporters last week in Kiev as he responded to a question about Moscow’s willingness to negotiate. “It depends on the elections in the United States,” he said.
If elected, Kamala Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s policies, which have supported Ukraine despite some points of friction, such as the use of Western weapons to deeply attack Russia.
Taking a drastically different position, Donald Trump has suggested he will end support for Kiev’s war effort and claimed he could resolve the war “in a day.” The terms of a peace plan proposed by his vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, are strikingly similar to Putin’s wish list.
American politics is at a crossroads, but that will not necessarily translate into a turning point in peace negotiations, analysts say.
That’s because nothing suggests that Russia is ready to come to the table, regardless of who ends up in the White House.
“What [Trump] thinks he can do, what influence he has, is unclear at this point – but I don’t think it’s a quick process,” said Thomas Graham, an expert on Russian foreign policy and distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
However, experts say a reduction in U.S. aid spending could well translate into changes on the battlefield.
With either potential president, Putin will seek to exploit what he sees as political dysfunction in the United States as well as “cracks in Western unity,” Graham told CNN .
Those cracks could come in the form of a Trump administration reducing U.S. aid and taking a smaller role in NATO, or a split in the U.S. Congress, among other factors.
Financial pressures on European allies also play a role, as do fissures within NATO, with pro-Russian leadership in member states such as Hungary and Slovakia.
“In the absence of Western unity, in the absence of a clear demonstration that the West and Ukraine have a common vision of what they are trying to achieve, Putin has no reason to reconsider what he is doing in Ukraine right now,” Graham added.
The scope of the war is also too large for simple negotiation between Moscow and Kiev, experts say. They argue that it is a much broader conflict between Russia and the West.
For Putin, “Ukraine is just a means to an end, and the end is to further limit U.S. influence in international affairs,” said John Lough, research associate in the Russia and Eurasia Program at London think tank Chatham House.
“When counselors [de Trump] explain to him what is really going on here and the fact that China has played a key role in sustaining Russia’s ability to continue fighting this war, he may suddenly feel, very strongly, that he is not so well disposed toward Putin,” Lough said, adding that Beijing will perceive any concessions “as yet another indication of US weakness.”
This goes against Trump’s tough rhetoric on the threat posed by China.
Wear
Ukraine is already outnumbered, and Putin appears ready to accept a high number of casualties. More than 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured, according to NATO.
“The enemy is increasing its troops to expel the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kursk region at any cost,” said Oleh Shiryaev, commander of the 225th Separate Assault Battalion that is fighting the surprise incursion into Ukraine across the Russian border.
“Russia’s main element in this war is the number of its troops – these are substantial attacks and offensive actions. They do this in every part of the front line.”
In Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, another Ukrainian Security Service commander said: “By sending a large number of personnel into battle as cannon fodder, they are trying to gain a foothold in the gray areas of the front.”
The officer, who asked to be identified only by his call sign “Bankir,” which means accountant, told CNN that a complex system of fortifications in Zaporizhzhia is helping Ukraine defend the front line.
But Kiev knows this is not enough. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s Parliament voted to extend martial law and conscription for another 90 days. There are plans to recall 160,000 more people, the National Security Council announced.
The Ukrainian military who spoke to the CNN They said Russia also has other advantages, such as numerous drones, expensive aircraft and more vehicles that allow it to fight during the muddy autumn and winter.
Ukraine needs support for both its infantry and its equipment vaults, military officials said.
“We have ammunition, but as the artillerymen say, it is never enough,” said spokesman for the 15th National Guard Brigade, Vitaliy Milovidov, who is fighting in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russian forces continue to make incremental gains. .
If a potential Trump administration cuts off US aid, Ukraine will become increasingly disarmed.
European countries are scrambling to increase ammunition production for Ukraine to avoid setbacks if US support wanes.
But even if U.S. policy continues on its current trajectory, Kiev’s Western allies appear unwilling to commit the level of resources needed to make major gains on the battlefield.
“My guess is that this will continue, possibly at a lower intensity, but for a long time,” Chatham House’s Lough added. “A Harris administration would certainly not sell out the Ukrainians, but it would really test their Ukrainian resolve and whether they are prepared to continue to fight this war of attrition.”
This is why Putin’s strategy also appears to be aimed at demoralizing the population of Ukraine.
Russia has repeatedly attacked civilians and civilian infrastructure. It also hit Ukraine’s power grid, compounding problems for ordinary Ukrainians who will face a winter marked by a lack of heat and water.
Analysts say the Ukrainian population is certainly exhausted, but they also don’t seem ready to settle down in any way. After the mass murders of civilians in Bucha and Mariupol, the brutal treatment of Ukrainian prisoners in Russian custody, and the forced deportation of Ukrainian children by the Russian state, they know the brutal realities of the Russian occupation.
Zelensky, meanwhile, continues to call for support from both parties. If Trump “just wants to force Ukraine to give up everything and thus come to an agreement with Russia, I don’t think that’s possible,” he said Thursday.
This content was originally published in Analysis: Putin will not negotiate on Ukraine, regardless of who wins in the USA on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
