Analysis: Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are finalists in succession to Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson will be succeeded as UK prime minister by Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss after the Conservative Party leadership race was narrowed on Wednesday to the final two candidates.

Johnson resigned as party leader earlier this month after a series of scandals that led to dozens of ministerial resignations. Ten Conservatives ran to replace him, and in five rounds of voting, members of parliament reduced it to two.

Sunak won 137 votes and Truss won 113 votes in the final round, while Penny Mordaunt lost 105 votes.

Both of the latter two candidates took to Twitter to comment on the result.

“Thankful that my colleagues trust me today. I will work night and day to deliver our message across the country,” Sunak tweeted.

For her part, Truss tweeted, “Thanks for trusting me. I am ready to start racing from day one.”

Now, some 160,000 grassroots members of the party will have their say, and in September the winner – and the next prime minister – will be announced.

Both candidates who made it to the final two in the Conservative Party leadership race served in Johnson’s administration and therefore could be harmed by the scandals that toppled Johnson.

The first was Johnson whipping his members of parliament to protect a political ally who violated lobbying rules, and ended with revelations that Johnson appointed his deputy chief, Chris Pincher, a man who has been accused of sexual assault multiple times.

The best-known scandal was the “Partygate,” in which Johnson and several political allies – including Sunak – were fined by police for violating the government’s own Covid-19 restrictions. This made Johnson the first prime minister in history to be found guilty of breaking the law in office.

The task facing the last two candidates is huge enough, with the UK suffering a cost-of-living crisis and the Conservative Party increasingly unpopular after 12 years in power. And once the new leader takes over, the opposition Labor Party will be willing to remind whoever succeeds Johnson that they were part of that government.

On Wednesday, Johnson attended his final Prime Minister’s Question Session in the House of Commons. He bragged about his government’s response to the pandemic and its support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia.

“We helped, I helped, make this country go through a pandemic and help save another country from barbarism. And frankly, that’s enough to go on. Mission largely accomplished,” Johnson said. “I want to thank everyone here and goodbye baby.”

The final round of the lead race came amid a record heat wave, which sparked bushfires and highlighted the UK’s unpreparedness for the climate emergency, as well as the need for urgent action to reduce carbon emissions.

Here’s what you need to know about the final two candidates:

Rishi Sunak

Sunak has been considered a favorite for a long time. He served as Johnson’s Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) from 2020 to 2022 and gained a largely positive public profile following the introduction of popular measures during the coronavirus pandemic, such as the license regime and restaurant eating discounts.

Recently, he has been pressured by issues related to the tax status of his wife, Akshata Murthy, a multimillionaire based in India.

Some conservatives were concerned that Sunak would find this level of scrutiny difficult, and fear he would cave under the pressure of being prime minister.

Despite this, he consistently led the pack among Conservative lawmakers in early voting rounds.

Voting for Conservative members can be difficult, especially in such tumultuous times, but in those that have occurred, Sunak has consistently ranked second to Truss among party members.

Even if he came to power, he would have to overcome criticism from political enemies of all stripes. Opposition leaders would be quick to remind Sunak that he was fined at the same Partygate event as Johnson.

They will also ask why Sunak remained loyal to Johnson for so long, resigning only after the scandal involving Johnson’s boss Chris Pincher.

Things get worse when you factor in Johnson’s supporters, who believe that Sunak’s resignation was the moment Johnson’s prime ministership began to fall apart.

So while Sunak might be a favorite, he will be surrounded by enemies on all sides.

Liz Truss

Truss also has a Johnson association problem. She is still serving as Johnson’s foreign secretary and will do so until he finally steps down in September.

She has retained her leader throughout all of her scandals, justifying the fact that she did not resign from the Pincher scandal because she was coordinating the UK’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This explanation may appeal to some, however, Truss is also widely regarded by conservatives as Johnson’s continuation candidate. Among his main endorsers are some of Johnson’s most loyal allies, which could cause her to disassociate herself from the troubled current prime minister.

It will also be difficult to distance yourself from Johnson’s policies. Truss, who voted for Britain to remain in the European Union, has become an arch-Brexiteer since the 2016 referendum.

Since Johnson took office, she has been his secretary of commerce and his secretary of foreign affairs. Like the first, she criticized as loudly as Johnson over every trade deal signed, even those that were simply rollover deals from the UK’s time in the EU.

She has also been an ardent supporter of Johnson’s plan to rewrite a controversial part of the Brexit deal, the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Truss has spent much of his time in high office building a power base and is very popular with parliamentarians and conservative ranks.

Sunak and Truss will now spend the summer campaigning for Conservative rank and file members before the winner is announced by the party on Sept. 5.

After that, Johnson will resign from the Queen, whose successor will visit and be invited to form a government.