Analysis: Russia’s NATO Target Region can be European attack test

On the board of this dangerous geopolitical game are Oslo, NATO allies, the Trump government, and even a central figure from the team Putin sent to Saudi Arabia to negotiate the future of Ukraine.

Almost a thousand kilometers separate Tromsø, the northern northern city of the Norwegian coast, and Svalbard, an Arctic archipelago that is one of NATO’s most remote geographical zones – and the latest focus of conflict between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and one of the allies.

With a resident population of about three thousand people, the archipelago is a point of strategic importance for the Russians. This is why, experts say, that this month Moscow bet on Norway charges of being violating the treaty that rules the archipelago, in what it may be, they say, the foreshadowing of a test attack to Europe.

“Svalbard is arguably remote and cold, but the archipelago is strategically positioned, and Russia may well decide to use it as a test case-which means it’s time to start an eye on Svalbard,” says Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council’s transatlantic security initiative.

Take a particular look at the complaint that Kremlin filed in mid -March against what he claims to be Svalbard’s militarization by Norway, something the country has committed never to do when the archipelago’s sovereignty was attributed to him 105 years ago.

In a meeting with Robert Kvile, the Norwegian ambassador in Moscow, high diplomatic employees of Russia complained that “contrary to the international legal regime established by the 1920 Svalbard Treaty – which provides for the exclusively peaceful development of the archipelago and prohibits the use of the territory for military purposes – the area is increasingly involved in Norway’s military and political planning with the participation of the US and the participation of the US and the participation of the US and the participation of the US and the participation of the US and the NATO ”.

The information was reported by the Russian agency Tass, which in the text cited the Russian Foreign Ministry claiming that “double -purpose facilities are operating in the archipelago, allowing, along with civilian tasks, military tasks, including combat operations in the territory of third countries.”

These, Braw up, are not the facts. “There is no Norwegian military use of the archipelago – and especially no such use by NATO or the US,” the analyst emphasized earlier this week.

“The Svalbard Treaty prohibits military foundations and military fortifications, and there are no such facilities on either islands – although Norwegian war ships patrol the waters around the archipelago. […] Instead, who is causing disturbances is Russia, ”he added.

Landings, flags, parades

The story of those who control the archipelago, also known as Spitsbergen, dates back to the late nineteenth century, when coal reserves were discovered there, increasing the attractiveness of the islands inhabited by humans since they were found by whalers in 1600.

And discovered the reserves, a group of 14 nations decided, in 1920, to attribute the sovereignty of Svalbard to Norway, because it is the nearest country to the archipelago (albeit 930 kilometers away).

Under the Treaty of Svalbard, the country accepted as counterpart to allow citizens and companies from other signatory states to live, work and operate from there – along with the commitment of never militarizing the archipelago.

There were 14 original signatories, other countries would add to the treaty later. Russia ratified him in 1935 to organize what Braw defines as “a Soviet presence centered on the coal mines” he began to manage there.

Until 1998, almost a decade after the USSR’s collapse, Svalbard housed a village that worked as a “Soviet mini-union”. That year, the Russian company Arktikugol closed all its mines in Svalbard and its model city, Pyramiden-which, abandoned in a hurry, is still a ghost settlement that attracts many curious to visit it.

“However, Russia has never left Svalbard completely,” says Atlantic Council expert. Instead, the last few years have seen questionable demonstrations from Russian authorities and other Russian state representatives in the archipelago that houses the “Fault of Revelation.”

One of the most notorious cases happened a decade ago, when Dmitry Rogozin, Russian-prime minister sanctioned by the West, landed in Svalbard without authorization from Norway, where he made a series of publications on the mocking Norwegian social networks.

In 2023, about a year after the large -scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russians organized a military parade of victory day in the archipelago, as reported by Barents Observer.

A search for keywords “Svalbard” and “Russians” on the Norwegian newspaper website currently shows the size of Russia’s interference in recent years-such as when, less than a year ago, the director of Arktikugol and others raised Soviet flags in Pyramiden.

For Elisabeth Braw, “more worrying” than the apparent “resentment of Russia in the glorious days” of her mini-assss in Svalbard is the fact that the Kremlin “seems to see the archipelago as a place to test new ways to assert the West-a sanctioned Russian officer arriving in Svalbard without permission, the chief of Arktikugol planting a flag Soviet and a victory day parade (although the Nazis have never occupied Svalbard) are all poorly subtle provocations that the Norwegian government can do little.

The language that pleases Trump

On March 20, Jamestown Foundation, conservative Think Tank specializing in Washington DC headquarters, dedicated a long analysis article to Svalbard where: “In the last ten days, it has dramatically increased tensions with the West through conflicts in the North and Arctic Atlantic Oceans”, but that “Kremlin is offering to the US president, the US president, Donald Trump, ‘a way out’ through a more comprehensive ‘agreement’.

Using “a classic Russian tactic of disorientation”, right after the meeting with the Norwegian ambassador in Moscow, Russian businessman Kirill Dmitiev – a central figure in current negotiations on Saudi Arabia Ukraine – resorted to social network X to insist that now is not the time for a new “cold war” in the Arctic, ” Washington.

“Precisely the kind of language that will likely please Trump,” says Jamestown Foundation.

The fact that Kremlin has summoned the Norwegian ambassador to submit his formal complaint about the misuse of Svalbard for military purposes, says the foundation, “was just the last of a series of Russian steps over the last few years” focusing on the archipelago. “These actions are leading some defense analysts to conclude that these islands, as well as others from the Baltic and the North Atlantic, can become Russia’s first targets if they decide to attack NATO countries.”

In the first Trump administration, it was precisely Kirill Dmitiev who tried a commercial approach to the US, via Rex Tillerson, the then US Secretary of State, proposing a partnership between Washington and Moscow in the Arctic.

The stated objective: explore gas and oil. The plans have never come true, but it all points out that it can now be revived, in parallel to negotiations about the future of Ukraine.

As Elisabeth Brawl points out, Moscow’s accusations to Oslo give the Russians the option of responding to the alleged violations of the Svalbard Treaty – a restful subterfuge used with Ukraine, repeatedly accused of violations that, in the vision of the Russians, justify their actions.

“How can Russia respond to Norway’s alleged infraction?” Asks the expert. “It’s impossible to know. But one thing is certain: although Svalbard can be extremely remote, what happens there won’t be there.”

This content was originally published under review: Russian NATO Target Region may be Europe’s attack test on CNN Brazil.

Source: CNN Brasil