Analysis: The bleak outlook for the US political future

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“The United States is steadily moving toward its most serious political and institutional crisis since the Civil War.” It is with these very opening words that he begins Robert Cagan his extremely bleak forecast for the future of the United States, particularly worried about Donald Trump’s intentions for the future, as it seems, attempt to regain power.

In his extensive analysis in the Washington Post, The former Republican, who specializes in national security issues, points out that “there is a good chance that in the next three to four years there will be incidents of mass violence, the collapse of federal power and the country splitting into war pockets of Democrats and Republicans.”

Cagan is not a random analyst. He is an extremely prominent an associate of the renowned Brookings Institution and a “sworn” Republican who, for reasons of principle, left the party in 2016, after taking over the presidency from the Donald Trump.

So he is certainly not a fan of Trump and the various tactics he uses from time to time. in order to divide American society for its own political benefit.

Having been in the Republican Party for years, he is well aware of how far the former president can go as he is legally entitled to another term as president of the United States. And as it is now assumed that Trump will be the Republican candidate in the 2024 presidential election, with himself clearly ahead in the polls, Keegan clarifies that “Trump and his Republican associates are actively preparing to ensure his victory by any means necessary “. By “any means”, he emphasizes it emphatically, even that of electoral fraud.

According to the analyst, Trump does nothing more than what footballers often do in games: complains in advance to the referee about his decision, in order to positively influence him in his next whistle. A psychological tactic that we know works. Even now, as Keegan notes, “Trump’s allegations of fraud in the recent 2020 election are now aimed primarily at to set a precedent for questioning future election results that will not be what he wants “.

What is happening now in the US is “an organized nationwide campaign to ensure that Trump and his supporters will be in control of state and federal election officials who were not available in 2020.”

So those Republicans state officials refused in 2020 to complain [ψευδώς] electoral fraud, have long been ousted from their posts and more “disciplined” – in the face of Trump – Republican representatives take their place.

The first president to come so close to a coup

According to Keegan, “Trump came close to the coup earlier in the year. However, this fortunately prevented, both by a group of courageous and honest government officials, and by the reluctance of two attorneys-general and a vice-president [σ.σ: του Μάικ Πενς] to obey orders that they themselves deemed “unacceptable and politically and legally inappropriate.”

The responsibility for this downstream policy of the American political system belongs, according to Keigan, to both Republicans, as well as Democrats who see Trump as more or less graphic. “The political establishment in both parties has consistently underestimated Trump since he came to the fore in 2015. They underestimated the extent of his popularity and the influence he has on his followers. “They underestimated his ability to gain control of the Republican Party and then underestimated how far he was willing to go to stay in power.”

“The Republican Party, however, is what gave birth to and nurtured the pro-Trump movement and bears the ultimate responsibility for creating the conditions that allowed it to win the loyalty of 90% of Republican voters,” he said. emphatically adding that:

«We are already in an unprecedented institutional crisis for the United States. The overthrow of the Republic may not occur before November 2024. But the downside is that all those crucial steps in this direction are already being taken. In a little over a year, if Republicans win a majority in Parliament and the Senate, it may be impossible to pass laws to protect the electoral process in 2024. “.

And this is exactly what Cagan is most afraid of:

“It is impossible now just because, despite what happened [σ.σ: εννοεί την εισβολή των οπαδών του Τραμπ στο Καπιτώλιο τον περασμένο Ιανουάριο], “Some people still want to be good Republicans even though they oppose Trump,” he said, concluding meaningfully and with horror that:

“These decisions, however, will not prove to be correct as well the country is rapidly collapsing into absolute crisis “.

So is there salvation? Keegan says yes, but it is a difficult scenario: “Only if politicians in both parties have the guts to make a series of bold moves in order to anticipate the course of political developments and have the courage to they are doing what is necessary for the salvation of our democratic system “.

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