Analysis: Trump prepares for the last act of his criminal trial

Donald Trump's first criminal trial reached its dramatic final act, with lawyers on both sides ready Tuesday to bolster their arguments before jurors consider a potentially history-making verdict.

The closing arguments mark the climax of a trial that began more than a month ago. They should last all day on Tuesday and could extend into the next day.

After Judge Juan Merchan instructs jurors on the law, Trump and the rest of the US will be in suspense to see whether he becomes the first former president and presumptive Republican Party nominee to be convicted of a crime after allegedly falsifying financial records to hide a cash bribe payment to an adult film star in 2016.

The verdict will reverberate far beyond the courtroom and Trump's personal life, as the case is intertwined with his bid to win back the White House. The stakes are especially high as this is likely the only one of four pending criminal trials expected to go to jury before the November election.

The former president appeared to be in a bad mood on the eve of his return to court, lashing out at opponents he called “human scum” in a social media message marking Memorial Day.

Trump's defense team is trying to spare their client the dishonor of a conviction that would tarnish his reputation.

The former president's top lawyer, Todd Blanche, is expected to focus on the credibility of Trump's former fixer-turned-nemesis, Michael Cohen, who underwent intense interrogation, and question what made other key figures in the circle of the former president's business and personal staff were not called by prosecutors, reported Kara Scannell of CNN .

Joshua Steinglass, who is conducting closing arguments for the prosecution, will follow Blanche and is expected to spend several hours taking the jury through text messages, phone records, statements from other witnesses and the 34 documents allegedly falsified to corroborate Cohen's testimony.

Ultimately, the team working for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, will try to convince the seven men and five women on the jury that Trump orchestrated a scheme to keep unfavorable information from voters in an early example of election interference. .

Trump denied having an affair with Stormy Daniels and pleaded not guilty. His lawyers don't need to convince the entire jury that he is innocent – ​​they just need one juror who will stand firm against the unanimous guilty verdict required for conviction.

Their handling of the trial, in which they produced just two witnesses in a brief defense, signals that they will argue that the state of New York failed to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the former president ordered and carried out a scheme that in any case , they say it does not constitute a crime. They argued during the trial that there was no evidence of criminal intent.

And they will seek to leave jurors with a devastating picture of Cohen, who admitted in court that he was a liar and was benefiting financially from a growing media empire that targeted his former boss.

While there is a big difference between a hung jury that could force the judge to declare a mistrial while leaving an opening for prosecutors to try Trump again, any outcome that doesn't end in conviction could serve Trump's political purposes, at least for now.

“I don’t know if the electorate sees much of a difference between the two. For many, including the defendant, the only relevant question is whether he is a convicted criminal or not,” said the legal analyst at CNN , Elliot Williams. “So I assume the defense is really just hoping to plant a seed in the head of that one juror who has enough doubts about the case and may be stubborn enough not to give in.”

Cohen will be at the center of the drama again

Blanche argued earlier this month that Cohen was so compromised as a witness that the case shouldn't even go to the jury. He told the judge: “He testified. And he lied under oath. In this courtroom. And the consequences of that lie, if accepted by the jury, is a conviction, potentially.”

Closing arguments are the step in a case where lawyers summarize weeks of complex testimony and courtroom theatrics and outline a narrative designed to shape deliberations about the evidence in the jury room. They are also used to impress upon jurors the enormous stakes of a trial – both the grave reality that a person's reputation and even freedom are at stake and the importance of upholding the rule of law.

The jury in this case must resolve a complex legal equation at the heart of the case. To reach a guilty verdict, they must agree that New York state prosecutors proved beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump falsified business records — which is typically a misdemeanor in the state. So, to convict Trump of a crime, the jury must determine that it was done to commit another crime – in this case, in relation to the 2016 election.

The prosecution will likely argue that although the defense attacked Cohen, he was honest about key elements of the case and that his testimony was corroborated in advance by weeks of evidence.

Former Manhattan prosecutor Jeremy Saland told CNN on Sunday (26) that it was not important how the jurors saw Cohen as a person. “If you like Michael Cohen, if you would like him to date your sister, if you would like him to be your brother-in-law… you don't have to like the guy. This isn't a sympathy contest. Was he honest at that moment? Was he honest and trustworthy?”

In days of evidence, the prosecution built a brick-by-brick legal wall to anticipate the attacks on Cohen's credibility that everyone knew were coming as the man who described himself as Trump's former “henchman” went to prison for crimes including lying to Congress.

“There were weeks and weeks of testimony from witnesses who testified and were corroborated by emails, bank records, contemporaneous phone calls, text messages and other documents of a conspiracy,” prosecutor Matthew Colangelo argued in court.

This evidence was intended to create a narrative that highlighted Trump's alleged affair with Daniels, in explicit detail, to explain to jurors why he wanted to cover it up.

They secured testimony from former tabloid editor David Pecker to highlight Trump's record of suppressing embarrassing stories, and produced evidence from former Trump associates, including former White House communications director Hope Hicks, to counter the idea that Trump was simply trying to hide Daniels from his family and was instead more concerned about voters forming an unfavorable impression of him in 2016.

Prosecutors also drew up a paper trail to suggest that Cohen was acting on the former president's orders in making a $130,000 payment to Daniels and that Trump was involved in manipulating the financial books while serving as president to disguise a refund. to his former assistant.

Another test of Trump's fragile self-control

Tuesday's closing arguments will create another personal test for Trump, whose attacks on witnesses previously led Merchan to warn him that he could be arrested for further violations of a partial gag order.

While remaining within Merchan's red line, Trump has continued to fire daily rhetorical attacks against the judge, prosecutors and the Justice Department, along with false claims that the trial is part of a sweeping conspiracy by President Joe Biden to destroy him. before election day.

Trump has raised doubts that the 12 New Yorkers who will try him in the city where he made his name will give him a fair trial. And he was helped by a parade of Republican supporters, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, who showed up to reinforce Trump's attack on the justice system.

Trump's belligerence would be incredible from any defendant, let alone one seeking to resume his role as titular boss and ultimate defender of the Constitution as the 47th president of the United States.

With just over five months until the election, it is unclear whether or how public opinion that is already polarized around Trump will change when the verdict is announced. The trial did not capture the nation's attention as it might have if television cameras had been allowed in the courtroom. And Trump has used his multiple criminal charges to his political advantage by emptying the field of Republican nominations.

But some polls suggest a conviction could count against him in a tight election with Biden. Past behavior also suggests that Trump would use any acquittal or mistrial caused by a hung jury to claim protest in all his criminal cases and to fuel the campaign of personal and political revenge around which he has promised to build a second presidency.

Closing arguments will continue after an unusual weeklong break in the trial that occurred because Merchan wanted to avoid closing arguments and jury instructions being interrupted by the Memorial Day holiday. The time off appears to have only escalated Trump's fury as a One of the most defining weeks of your life begins.

“Happy Memorial Day to everyone, including the human scum who are working so hard to destroy our Great Old Country,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social network that was especially shocking on a day dedicated to fallen members of the military.

Trump lashed out at judges who presided over a massive fraud trial against him, his company and his adult children that was worth nearly half a billion dollars and a defamation lawsuit in which he was ordered to pay writer E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million .

Trump concluded his speech with the words: “Now it’s up to Merchan!”