Analysis: Trump wants to knock Haley out of Republican race with victory in New Hampshire primary

Former President Donald Trump wants to remove his last remaining Republican opponent from the race for the 2024 White House this Tuesday (23), with a resounding victory in the state of New Hampshire, in the primary that could consolidate his power over the broken.

“Every day the Republican Party is becoming more and more unified,” Trump told his supporters in Laconia (New Hampshire) on Monday night (22), at his last rally of the campaign for the primaries in New Hampshire. called “Granite State” (“Granite State”, in literal translation).

“We started with 13 (opponents) and now we have two people left, and I think probably one person will leave tomorrow,” he added.

Nikki Haley's campaign is the last hurdle, barring unforeseen circumstances, to the general election showdown that polls show most Americans don't want — a rematch of the 2020 showdown between Trump and President Joe Biden.

The former governor of South Carolina is strongly resisting Trump's attempt to end the Republican primary race after just two statewide nominating contests.

Ahead of that crucial day that could decide whether she can claim the reason and the money to stay in the race, Haley warned that America doesn't do “coronations.” And she warns that Trump's efforts to take her out of the race are antithetical to Republican values.

“America doesn’t do coronations. We believe in choices. We believe in democracy,” she said at an event in Franklin, New Hampshire, on Monday.

The outcome of these primaries will have huge implications for the choices Americans will have in the November general election.

• New Hampshire represents Haley's best opening to claim an early victory against Trump, which would slow what begins to look like the former president's inevitable march to the nomination, which would complete the transformation of the Republican Party in his image;
• The race is also key to the former South Carolina governor's ability to realistically extend her campaign in her home state next month and beyond — and to her ability to convince big-money donors to stick with her;
• On the Democratic side, Biden's name is not on the ballot this Tuesday and no delegates will be awarded due to a dispute between the state and the Democratic National Committee over the reorganization of the party's electoral calendar. However, today's vote will serve as an unofficial test of the president's popularity. There is an organized effort to get voters to write in his name. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota is running against the president but has yet to build a national campaign.

A frantic week in New Hampshire

Voters cast their ballots following Trump's victory in the Iowa caucuses last week, with more than 50% of the vote.

The dispute is now a direct confrontation between the former president and the former American ambassador to the United Nations following the withdrawal of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Sunday.

Haley has tried to exploit Trump's gaffe by confusing her with former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, while arguing that neither her 77-year-old Republican rival nor 81-year-old Biden have the mental fitness to serve a second term.

But Haley's attempts to gain momentum were tested by Trump, who rallied support from former Republican candidates DeSantis, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

The latest trio showed up in person to campaign with Trump in Laconia on Monday night. And Burgum and Scott increased the pressure on Haley to get out of the race.

“We can end this primary tomorrow in New Hampshire with a fantastic victory,” said the governor of North Dakota. Scott added: “If you want the race to end tomorrow, let me hear you scream.”

The former president also took a powerful delegation of South Carolina state leaders to the city of Manchester on Saturday night, trying to convince Haley that she would be pulverized in her home state's February primary and should withdraw from the race to leave him as the right candidate.

A clear choice

Voters participating in the primaries are offered a clear choice.

Trump is painting a portrait of a nation besieged by a surge in migrants, crime and an economic crisis.

Whether accurate or not, this message is appealing to GOP voters who care about the U.S. southern border crisis and who suffer from higher prices and interest rates and think they would be better off under his presidency.

Trump's message has an even darker side. Thousands of supporters cheered at a rally on Saturday night as he made false claims of 2020 voter fraud, called those convicted of the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol “hostages” and said his multiple legal troubles were evidence of political persecution.

He argued that presidents should be immune from lawsuits, in a sign of what could be a possible wild second term.

In Laconia, on the eve of the vote, Trump once again claimed that he was robbed in 2020, noting that if he had secured a second term, he would now be completing his term.

Haley is wary of alienating Republicans who still like Trump. She is just referring to his aberrant presidency and the attack on the elections as “chaos” that “rightly or wrongly” accompanies the former president.

She is appealing to voters to make a generational change and is especially appealing to independents who can join the Republican Party primary in New Hampshire.

She says Republicans are tired of losing and that Trump would almost certainly be defeated by Biden in the November general election.

“We should want to win over the majority of Americans,” Haley said. “But the only way to do that is to elect a new generation of conservative leaders.”

Some polls showed Haley would handily defeat Biden in November. But the president's weak political popularity has complicated his arguments that Trump is certain to lose in the general election.

In fact, hypothetical matchups between Trump and Biden in many key swing states have put the former president ahead.

The former governor of South Carolina made her closing argument Monday night in Salem, New Hampshire, at a new hotel in an upscale suburban office park — offering a clue about the type of moderate and sometimes wealthy voters. that she tries to attract.

But even in the “Granite State,” where the electorate is more moderate than in many states with primaries in the coming weeks, the less conservative, college-educated voters with whom she gets along do not reflect the majority of Republicans.

That's why his path depends on winning over independent voters.

Can Haley create a justification to continue?

Haley is under enormous pressure due to the math of the primary calendar and the fact that she needs to change the face of a party that has been dominated by Trump since 2016 to have a chance of winning the primary race.

If she fails to win New Hampshire, it will be difficult to argue that she has a path to the nomination.

According to a survey by CNN conducted by the University of New Hampshire before DeSantis withdrew, Haley was 13 points behind Trump in a two-person race.

New Hampshire, however, is known for misleading conventional wisdom. Haley needs the kind of bumper turnout from undeclared voters that John McCain achieved in 2000, when he defeated then-Texas governor George W. Bush in the state's primary.

But like the late Arizona senator, Haley may still have trouble ahead in South Carolina. Bush rebounded in a no-holds-barred primary in his home state and marched toward the Republican Party nomination.

Even Haley's most vocal supporter, New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, has downplayed expectations for Tuesday night, in line with signs of waning momentum following Haley's third-place finish in Iowa. last week.

He's now arguing that she doesn't really need to start winning primaries until “Super Tuesday” in early March.

But second place in a race between the two candidates in New Hampshire would hardly seem like much of an achievement in a state that is better prepared for her to claim an early victory against Trump.

“If we really have high voter turnout, I think it will surprise a lot of people here,” Sununu told anchor Anderson Cooper of CNN on Monday.

At times, Haley appears to be campaigning for the nomination of a party that no longer exists. His traditional fiscal conservatism and aggressive foreign policy have more in common with the pre-Trump era than with the former president’s “Make America Great Again” nationalism and populism.

And her attitude and style — folksy, scripted, emphasizing her roles as a mother and common-sense military wife — represent a huge departure from the tumult, self-absorption and chaos of Trump's life and political career.

Most of the evidence available so far in the Republican race, however, suggests that the party's activist base is prepared to accept what Haley calls its “chaos” and believes that its allegations of voter fraud in 2020 and that its legal troubles are the result of political persecution against the Republican Party by the Biden administration.

The former governor of South Carolina recently began arguing that Biden and Trump have more similarities than differences – both in their advanced age and in the possibility of a repeat of the 2020 presidential election.

“70% of Americans said they don’t want a rematch between Trump and Biden,” Haley said. “Most Americans disapprove of Trump and Biden.” She added: “Are we really going to say we’re OK with having two 80-year-olds running for president as options?”

Unless Haley pulls off a surprise this Tuesday, that could be the choice Americans have.