Analysis: Trump's conviction foreshadows dark and volatile moment in the US

Donald Trump's first act upon becoming a convicted felon was to launch a furious new attack on the rule of law, exposing the gravity of the choice facing American voters.

In a sense, Trump's conviction on all charges in his first criminal trial affirmed the principle on which the United States is founded – that all are equal and that no one, not even a billionaire and former president, enjoys impunity.

But Trump's authoritarian outburst minutes after the guilty verdict in New York and the rush of top Republicans to join his attack on the justice system highlight how threatened these fundamental values ​​are now.

“This was a fraudulent and shameful trial. The real verdict will be on November 5th, by the people, and they know what happened here, they all know what happened here,” Trump said minutes after a jury spokesman announced his guilt on 34 felony counts of falsifying records. commercials to hide a bribe payment to an adult film star.

After returning to Trump Tower and greeting supporters with a clenched fist, Trump issued a written statement making clear that he views his own destiny and that of the nation as indistinguishable — a familiar trait of a dictatorial leader.

“I'm a very innocent man, and it's okay, I'm fighting for our country. I'm fighting for our Constitution. Our entire country is being defrauded right now,” Trump wrote.

President Joe Biden's campaign echoed his opponent's belief that the former president's final judgment will come in the general election.

“Today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality,” said campaign communications director Michael Tyler.

“There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the polls. Convicted criminal or not, Trump will be the Republican Party's nominee for president,” Tyler said. “The threat Trump poses to our democracy has never been greater.”

A moment of personal anguish with national consequences

Trump's conviction by a unanimous New York jury was the lowest and most painful point in a tumultuous life of denial of responsibility that saw financial boom and bust, three marriages, television stardom, frequent battles with the law, triumph from his victory as a political newcomer in 2016, a norm-breaking presidency and an attempt to destroy democracy to remain in power after losing in 2020.

Judging by the shock-red faces outside the courtroom, the verdict was a moment of personal anguish. Given that he has a good chance of being the next president, this will certainly become a serious national test as well.

Trump has pleaded not guilty in a trial that is one of four criminal cases heading into the 2024 presidential election and the only one likely to see a jury before voting day. Responses to any defense motions in the bribery case must be filed by June 27th – the day of the first presidential debate, which will be held by CNN .

Trump's sentencing hearing is scheduled for July 11, just days before he secures the nomination at the Republican National Convention and close to the time he said he would announce his vice presidential pick.

Already, his legal defenses have morphed with his political strategy into a narrative of political persecution, and he is promising that he will dedicate a possible second term to “retaliation” against his enemies.

Among an electorate that Trump has consistently polarized, the verdict is likely to be met with fury by his supporters and jubilation by his critics. But in truth, this is a dark and even tragic moment in US history. Americans have never seen a former president convicted of a crime, and a country already divided by bitter political and cultural polarization is likely to face turbulent times.

The implications are enormous. They start with the potential consequences for an election in five months that could be decided by the change of just a few thousand votes in a few states.

Trump has been preparing voters for months for the possibility of being found guilty in a case that prosecutors said centered on an attempt to deceive voters in 2016. He has claimed his four criminal charges are a plot by Biden to destroy him. In essence, he has worked to break his biggest norm yet – the idea that it would be unthinkable for a convicted criminal to serve as president.

No one can know how voters will react to Trump's latest moment of ignominy. His conviction will certainly energize his loyal base and his campaign will try to create a backlash against the verdict among more moderate voters. If they are successful, Thursday (30) could be remembered as the day Biden lost the election.

Or, the guilty verdict could fit Biden's campaign theme that his predecessor is too corrupt and extreme to serve as president again. Moderate and suburban voters that Trump has always had trouble appealing to could be further alienated.

But Trump's tactics and his ability to shape the opinions of his supporters – with the help of the conservative media machine – will inevitably mean that the legal system will join the electoral system as another essential institution of American governance that is now seen as illegitimate by millions. of citizens.

And if it is Trump who raises his hand to swear to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution on January 20, 2025 as the 47th president, America will be led by a criminal whose duties will include being the symbolic leader of the justice system.

The danger is acute because, with his attempt to remain in power after losing the 2020 election, Trump has already shown that he will do whatever is necessary to save himself, even if his actions catastrophically harm democratic institutions.

Deep reverberations of Trump trial verdict

The presidential historian of CNN Timothy Naftali, said on Thursday (30) that Trump's call for a campaign against the legal system will mean that every Republican will be forced to put him at the center of their 2024 campaigns.

“This will create, in my opinion, a torrent of venom that will likely be worse than what we saw in the 'Stop the Steal' campaign that preceded January 6th. And this will further disturb an already sensitive country,” said Naftali. “I am concerned about this because the 'Stop the Steal' campaign has created widespread doubt about the honesty of our electoral system and led many people to believe that fraud was committed in 2020.”

One question that has long hung over this trial is whether the crime — falsifying financial records to conceal a bribe payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels to deceive voters in 2016 — was serious enough for the Manhattan district attorney to consider. , Alvin Bragg, risk the extraordinary political consequences of impeaching a former president.

Prosecutors' use of former Trump fixer Michael Cohen as a star witness, despite his own conviction on tax charges and lying to Congress, was deeply controversial. Trump lawyer Todd Blanche told CNN that the timing of the trial – in the middle of an election campaign – was unfair for the former president.

But the charges weren't just made up by prosecutors as Trump claimed. They were brought back by a grand jury. The former president received the presumption of innocence until proven guilty, and was tried by a jury of his peers. Even now, the Constitution he claims was hijacked will protect him with a full set of resources, as in all his other criminal cases.

But once a jury renders a verdict, justice is considered done. Therefore, the Republicans' immediate attacks on the judge, the court and the verdict represent an extraordinary effort by one of the country's two major political parties to oppose the integrity of the legal system.

The Republican Party is showing — after failing to convict Trump in two impeachment trials and after many of its most prominent members repeated his lies about the 2020 election — that there is nothing it can do that will break the party's cultist embrace. to its leader.

This suggests that any second Trump term would have even fewer restrictions than his wild first. And it raises questions about his claim to be running a “law and order” campaign.

One of the first Republicans to react was New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, chair of the House Republican conference, who is seen as a possible pick for Trump's vice president. “Today’s verdict shows how corrupt, fraudulent and un-American the armed justice system has become under Joe Biden and the Democrats,” Stefanik said. “From the beginning, the scales of armed justice have been tipped against President Trump.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, who traveled to support Trump during his trial and helped fuel false claims of voter fraud in 2020, has brought the symbolic weight of his office to support Trump and attack the legal system.

“Today is a shameful day in American history. Democrats cheered as they condemned the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges based on the testimony of a disqualified and convicted former lawyer. This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one,” said the Louisiana Republican.

Another high-ranking Trump ally, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, said there was never a chance for a fair trial in a city that drew its jury from one of the most liberal areas in America. “This verdict says more about the system than the allegations. He will be seen as politically motivated and unfair, and that will have a tremendous negative effect on the political left,” Graham said. “This is a mockery of justice.”

Graham's comment promoted an idea that has gained traction among conservatives that a Republican leader can only get a fair trial if he is tried in a jurisdiction where he is popular — a proposition that would effectively permanently politicize justice.

One Republican who has refused to join the race to discredit the verdict is former Maryland governor Larry Hogan, who is running for Senate. “At this dangerously divided moment in our history, all leaders – regardless of party – must not fan the fire with more toxic partisanship,” Hogan said in a statement before the verdict was announced.

Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, wrote in X: “You just ended your campaign.”

Hogan's comment would have been, at one point, a standard Republican reaction to the conviction of a high-ranking politician. In another era, a guilty verdict would have immediately ended Trump's campaign. The fact that the newly convicted criminal is already using this as a springboard to power translates into volatile days ahead.

“This verdict shows two different things,” Naftali said.

“The first is that the former president can be accused and found guilty by a group of his peers. And this shows the strength of our system. The other verdict, however, has not yet been given and it is: can the powerful use our political system to escape the consequences of being found guilty? And that verdict will be in November.”