In a single post, the president-elect of the United States told the world what the end of the war in Ukraine would look like. And it will be a major diplomatic request, to say the least.
“I am delighted to nominate General Keith Kellogg to serve as Assistant to the President and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia,” Trump wrote in Truth Social. “Together, we will ensure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH and make America and the world SAFE AGAIN!” he added.
In naming Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for Ukraine, Donald Trump also chose a very specific, pre-announced plan for the most complicated foreign policy issue on his hands.
Kellogg, Trump’s 80-year-old former national security adviser, laid out his peace plan in some detail, writing to the America First Policy Institute in April.
He begins by calling the war “a preventable crisis that, due to the Biden administration’s incompetent policies… has embroiled America in an endless war.”
In short, a ceasefire will freeze the front lines and both sides will be forced to the negotiating table. But it is in the longer details that everything becomes complex.
Changing US involvement
Kellogg spends most of his time berating Biden’s actions — saying his administration provided too little help, too late. He says Trump’s decision to give the first lethal aid to Ukraine in 2018 conveyed the strength needed to confront Putin, and that Trump’s soft approach to the Kremlin chief – not demonizing him as Biden did – will allow him to close a deal. agreement.
The former aide says more weapons should have been given before the Russian invasion and immediately after to allow Ukraine to win.
But that’s where the plan – that the CNN reported that Trump’s future national security advisor is considering – no longer to Ukraine’s liking.
Kellogg says the United States does not need to get involved in another conflict, and its own weapons stockpile has suffered from aid to Ukraine, leaving the country potentially exposed in any conflict with China over Taiwan.
He says Ukraine’s NATO membership — in fact a very distant prospect, tentatively offered to Kiev in symbolic solidarity — should be put on hold indefinitely, “in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace agreement with security guarantees.”
First, the plan says it should become “formal U.S. policy to pursue a ceasefire and negotiated settlement.”
He says future American aid — likely given as a loan — will be conditional on Ukraine negotiating with Russia, and the U.S. will arm Ukraine to the extent it can defend itself and prevent any further Russian advances before and after any deal. of peace.
This last suggestion is perhaps dated by Moscow’s ongoing rapid advance into eastern Ukraine and the current high level of US aid already makes Kellogg uncomfortable.
Kellogg partially credits a 2023 paper by Richard Haas and Charles Kupchan for some of the next ideas.
A freeze on the front lines
The front lines would be frozen by a ceasefire and a demilitarized zone would be imposed. By agreeing to this, Russia would get limited sanctions relief and full relief only when a peace agreement is signed to Ukraine’s liking.
A tax on Russian energy exports would pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Ukraine would not be asked to give up on regaining occupied territory, but would agree to pursue it only through diplomacy. He accepts that “this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough that is unlikely to occur before Putin leaves office.”
It is attractively simple and quick in its approach. But it lacks an accommodation of what Moscow will demand and has used in the past: seeking military advances.
The freezing of the front lines will precipitate a very violent few months ahead as Russia seeks to seize as much ground as possible. The Kremlin has in the past ignored a ceasefire and pursued its territorial goals — often categorically denying that it does so.
A demilitarized zone would likely need to be policed, possibly placing NATO troops, or soldiers from other non-aligned nations, between the two sides. This will be difficult to maintain and equip, to say the least. It would be large, spanning hundreds of kilometers of border, and a huge financial investment.
Arming Ukraine to the extent that it can impede present and future Russian advances will also be difficult. The plan notes that the United States manufactures 14,000 artillery shells per month, which Ukraine can use in just 48 hours. Paradoxically, Kellogg wants the US to arm Ukraine more, but also accepts that they really can’t.
A change of values
Two lines provide a broader view of the author’s thinking. He says national security, America First style, was about practical needs.
“Biden replaced Trump’s approach with a liberal internationalist approach that promoted Western values, human rights and democracy,” he writes.
He adds that some critics of continued aid to Ukraine are “concerned about whether America’s vital strategic interests are at stake in the war, the potential for the involvement of U.S. military forces, and whether America is involved in a proxy war with Russia that could turn into a nuclear conflict.”
These two sentences provide the definitive context for the proposed deal: that the Ukraine war is about values we do not need to perpetuate and that we must move away from Putin’s nuclear threat.
It is the opposite of the current unity in which the West prioritizes the values of its own way of life and security, based on the lesson of the 1930s that appeased dictators do not stand still.
The plan presents Ukraine with a welcome chance to end the violence at a time when it is losing on all fronts and lacking basic manpower — an obstacle it may never overcome and something Russia will likely always face. will surpass.
But it begins a process that a crafty Putin will delight in. Exploiting a ceasefire and Western weakness is his forte, the moment he has waited nearly three years for.
The plan accepts Western fatigue, that its armaments production cannot keep pace and that its values are a waste. It also makes little accommodation for what Russia will do to disrupt its vision.
It’s a dark commitment to a dark war. But this may not end the situation and instead open a new chapter in which Western unity and support begin to crumble, and Putin moves closer, both at the negotiating table and on the battlefront, to his goals.
This content was originally published in Analysis: Trump’s envoy to Ukraine has a plan to end the war that could please Putin on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
