Analysis: Trump’s remarks show uncertainty could return to US diplomacy

Donald Trump is still six months away from the Oval Office — if he ever gets back there.

But the Republican candidate has once again caused geopolitical earthquakes. The concerns concern Taiwan and his comment in a new interview with Bloomberg Businessweek that the democratic island should pay the US for defending it from China.

“We’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything. Taiwan is 9,000 miles away. It’s 68 miles from China. A small advantage, and China is a huge piece of land, they could just bomb it,” Trump said.

His comments, released during the Republican National Convention, immediately raised alarm bells about whether he would abandon the policy of strategic ambiguity that governs how the US would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan – which is intended to prevent such an attack by keeping Beijing guessing.

But this also appears to be a familiar Trump strategy — one he used during his presidency to increase defense spending by U.S. allies in Europe and Asia. It also underscores his transactional view of even the most critical pillars of American foreign policy.

In a recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine, Robert O’Brien, Trump’s former national security adviser who is being considered for a top job in a second term, condemned China’s pressure on Taiwan but called on Taipei to increase military spending — much of which already goes to U.S. arms manufacturers — and expand military recruitment.

Trump is running on a platform of avoiding foreign wars, so it is not surprising that there are real questions about whether he would spend US blood and treasure to defend Taiwan. His comments suggest that if he wins in November, Washington’s foreign policy will once again be dictated by what an unpredictable president thinks at any given moment, and America will once again be a volatile force in the world.