In the basements of Orikhiv, Ukrainian troops stand against the walls. Even though they are underground, the huge Russian bombs that routinely land can knock down everything above them, and so the edges of their underground world are safer.
Imagine this kind of risk, and the men and women who bear its terrible brunt every night, when you hear about the progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. It’s slow, dangerous, bloody and more difficult than expected. But make no mistake: this is perhaps the most important moment for European security since the fall of the Berlin Wall, or even since 1945.
Ukrainian forces are nowhere near where they expected them to be as autumn approaches. The summer months around Robotyne, south of Orikhiv, and north of Mariupol, were preoccupied with a ghastly slow walk through acres of minefield, with troops fighting for weeks over small pieces of land that could be counted in streets or even in buildings.
Once recaptured, as can be seen in villages like Staromaiorske or Urozhaine, so little is left standing that there are few places where liberating Ukrainian troops can seek shelter. Only rubble remains for the winner.
The impatience and fatigue evident in the West regarding Ukraine’s progress will no doubt be glossed over in New York this week, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky uses his revamped Defense Ministry to portray a rejuvenated administration ready for long and painful winter that is coming.
But he shouldn’t even feel the need to make a sales pitch.
Ukraine’s fight is for its territory, yes. But it is a surprisingly vivid moment for European security – the outcome of the next two months could decide the course of the next decade globally.
Although Ukrainian progress along the southern front increased earlier this month, it now appears to have partially slowed again. They are still some distance from Tokmak, halfway to Melitopol, and from achieving the goal of separating Russian-occupied Crimea from the land corridor to mainland Russia.
Kiev’s forces move slowly south towards Mariupol, but the advance is tortuous and the terrain consists of vast tracts of farmland. Newly captured territory shown by the 35th Marine Division at CNN in August it was just the ruin of a small municipal building, among potholed rural streets. There is little to take and little to defend.
But the fight is still critical. By the end of November, the weather will cool down and winter will soon arrive. It is already becoming wetter and murkier than the Ukrainian armored assault tanks would prefer. But Kiev’s last major advances were made in mid-November last year, following the Russian withdrawal in Kherson, so it is fair to assume there are still eight more weeks to go.
When the snow arrives, Moscow will try to further consolidate its current front line. The day will be shorter. The cold will leave Ukrainian attack units much more vulnerable as they try to advance deeper into Russian lines. This will make an already heinous task even more bloody.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely counting on the winter to strengthen his position. His forces resisted this summer with greater vigor than many predicted.
It is still possible that they will begin to falter: their human resources are not infinite, and the slow drumbeat of Ukrainian attacks on their supply lines risks the same kind of collapse seen in Kharkiv in September, at an indefinable point in the future. But Russia may well hold on.
This could mean a winter of dystopia. The West conveys its tireless determination to support Kiev. But have no doubt, the billions of dollars of aid seemingly announced weekly by Washington could be at risk as the 2024 election campaign approaches.
US President Joe Biden would far rather campaign with a Ukrainian solution in hand than with a promise to invest US taxpayers’ money in an indefinite future, in the war that few Americans follow on a daily basis.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
