Analysis: US awaits Netanyahu's response after Biden's ultimatum

President Joe Biden has put his own credibility and that of the United States at risk by trying to change the way Israel acts in the conflict in Gaza.

Now he waits to see to what extent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will yield to his administration's most significant strategic shift since the start of the war.

If Netanyahu refuses to take the “specific, concrete and measurable” steps in Gaza to alleviate civilian suffering and protect aid workers – which Biden requested on Thursday (4), the US president will face a critical choice.

Is Biden willing to prolong the bad feeling and political risk in an election year – where young, progressive and Arab voters are outraged by the war?

Or will Biden take the important step of conditioning the terms of U.S. support for Israel in a war sparked by Hamas terrorist attacks that killed more than 1,200 people?

In a first sign of a shake-up in the alliance, the Israeli security cabinet approved on Thursday (4) the reopening of the Erez crossing, between Israel and the north of the Gaza Strip – for the first time since the Hamas attacks on September 7. October, according to a statement from an Israeli official to CNN .

The move could allow humanitarian aid to flow more easily to Gaza as famine looms.

But an Israeli pivot will be needed in the coming days – one that survives potential escalations in the war against Hamas – to ease criticism of Netanyahu and mitigate Biden's own domestic political exposure.

The conversation between Biden and Netanyahu on Thursday (4) comes after the deaths of seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen during an Israeli attack on Gaza. The tragedy seemed to cause more outrage than the deaths of more than 30,000 Palestinian civilians.

It was an important moment because, for the first time, the US is calling into question its unconditional support for Israel. Biden warned that his policy on the war in Gaza could change if there is not quick action from Netanyahu. Biden also called for an “immediate ceasefire,” officials said.

“If we don’t see changes that we need to see, there will be changes in our policy,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The administration has not explained how the U.S. stance might change, although some Democrats are now talking openly about imposing limits on how the Israel Defense Forces can use U.S.-made weapons.

Among them is Delaware Senator Chris Coons, who is close to the president. The senator's signal Thursday that he was open to conditioning gun sales was the latest public statement from a senior Democrat that sounded like a warning to Biden that his policy position is becoming untenable.

In Brussels, on Friday (5), Blinken called for an “independent investigation” into the attack on the aid convoy, saying that the US wanted to “see who is responsible” in the case.

Israel claimed that the army believed the volunteers were Hamas militants and announced on Friday (5) that two military commanders had been fired.

Despite repeatedly expressing its frustration with Israeli tactics, the White House has been reluctant or unable to impose any limits on the Israeli prime minister to date.

An attempt to ease political tension

Biden's need to demonstrate to allies that he is putting pressure on the Israelis is clear. This week, the American leader met with a Palestinian doctor to talk about the war and it was evident how the government's communication quickly presented the results of that meeting to the public.

Blinken, who was in Brussels, held a press conference, speaking to Americans as well as US allies who were ready to rebuke Israel for its conduct of the war.

Then, at the White House, National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby took charge of the agenda, stressing that the US wanted to see changes from Israel – including the opening of more aid corridors in Gaza and measures to protect civilians.

It is not good form for the American government to make a call with a foreign leader in such a public way.

Typically, the White House issues a statement offering only a few details of the conversation. This time, however, the Biden administration was determined to control the narrative and defined what happened even before Israel offered its own version of events.

Today, I spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu to emphasize that strikes on aid workers and the humanitarian situation in Gaza are unacceptable.

Israel must implement steps to address civilian harm and the safety of workers – and work toward a ceasefire to bring hostages home. pic.twitter.com/c7yB0jwq06

— President Biden (@POTUS) April 4, 2024

Biden did not appear on television, but posted a photo on X (formerly Twitter) with a photo of the moment of the call. “Israel must implement measures to address the harm to civilians and the safety of aid workers – and work towards a ceasefire and bring hostages home,” the president wrote.

This coordinated public diplomacy underscored the gravity of a U.S. shift. But it has also increased the cost to Washington if Netanyahu does not cooperate.

Leon Panetta, former White House chief of staff, CIA director and secretary of defense, told Jake Tapper of CNN who believes that the administration's drawing of a line with Israel can be effective and that it was important for Biden to call for a ceasefire.

“This war has been going on for almost six months, and I think to some extent, President Biden and Netanyahu have been talking to each other when it comes to their concerns. I think that has changed. I hope that has changed,” he said.

Senator Bernie Sanders, who has spoken out against Israel's Gaza strategy, said American dollars should not be “complicit” in Israel's crimes.

“In short, we are looking at one of the worst humanitarian disasters we have seen in a long, long time,” the Vermont senator told Tapper.

“In my opinion, Israel should not receive another dollar in military aid until these policies are fundamentally changed,” Sanders said.

“Hamas started this war, they are a terrorist organization, but the United States is not financing Hamas, we are financing Israel. What has to be clear to Israel is that you can go to war against Hamas, but you cannot continue these horrible actions.”

Netanyahu's choice

Netanyahu, who has been in power for a long time and is an extraordinary political survivor, has a long record of defying US pressure – one of the reasons why dealing with him has been so treacherous for American presidents.

There was no immediate response from the Israeli prime minister, who held a cabinet meeting following the call he used to warn that Israel will defend itself against Iran.

Iran has issued warnings of retaliation after two Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers were killed in an attack in Damascus. The Iranian government accused Israel of being behind the action.

The Israeli government has placed its forces on high alert. “We will know how to defend ourselves and we will act according to the simple principle that whoever harms us or plans to harm us, we will harm them,” Netanyahu said.

While the phone call with Biden revealed differences between Israelis and Americans, the American administration was also keen to emphasize that US support for Israel's security was inviolable.

“They talked about a real, very public, very viable threat from Iran to Israel’s security,” Kirby said. Blinken, meanwhile, stressed that “President Biden reaffirmed the United States’ strong support for Israel amid these threats and our commitment to Israel’s security.”

Tensions did not rise because of a personal disconnect between the Israeli prime minister and Biden. The two are veteran politicians who have known each other for years.

Instead, the president's political interests – and possibly US national security interests – are diverging with those of Netanyahu.

Biden has a strong incentive to end the war, given the political backlash he is facing from within his fragile coalition in key states that will decide the 2024 elections.

Many Washington observers believe Netanyahu has an incentive to prolong the conflict, given that an election is likely when the conflict's intensity cools.

At that point, the focus will also turn to responsibility for the worst terrorist attack in modern Israeli history and a period that is likely to be damaging for Netanyahu, who presented himself to Israelis as the leader of security measures.

One of the most notable features of Netanyahu's strategy in recent months has been his reluctance to pay for even token services to US needs, given the political price Biden is paying in exchange for his staunch support for Israel.

On the one hand, this is not surprising. For many Israelis, the horror of October's terrorist attacks and the depravity of an enemy who wants to wipe them off the map have overshadowed other considerations.

Netanyahu, who is a right-wing politician, also heads the most conservative government in Israeli history and is dependent on several orthodox parties to remain in power.

The Israeli prime minister is a consummate Washington player and has engaged with Biden's Republican foes on Capitol Hill in an alliance that could increase political complications for the president if he creates deeper fractures with the Israeli prime minister.

Reinforcing the synergy between Netanyahu and the Republican Party, House Speaker Mike Johnson warned in a post on X: “The president’s ultimatums should go to Hamas, not Israel.”

Still, Israel is becoming increasingly isolated internationally, and U.S. support has rarely been so critical.

Netanyahu would be taking a great risk if he openly defied the public requests of a US president. An Israeli offensive on Rafah, which the US has warned, is unlikely to move forward until civilians receive aid. This operation now emerges as a potential breaking point between the two leaders.

If Biden eventually assesses that his warnings are falling on deaf ears, his credibility will depend on whether he publicly imposes a cost on the Israeli prime minister. He will do so with a heavy heart, given his deep emotional bond with Israel.

But Biden's political imperatives and the rising humanitarian toll of the war in Gaza mean he is approaching a fateful crossroads. And now Netanyahu will decide which path he should take.