Analysis: US has maintained cautious distance from Venezuela since election

The United States has adopted a “cautious distancing” stance toward Venezuela, especially since the last elections, according to the international analyst at CNN Fernanda Magnotta. This approach is mainly influenced by the American electoral context and its implications for foreign policy.

Magnotta explains during the CNN 360° that regional stability and its effects on the United States are crucial factors at this time.

“We have the issue of immigration at the top of the electoral agenda this year, for the American presidential election,” says the specialist.

Instability in Venezuela is seen as one of the factors driving waves of migration towards the United States, directly affecting the country’s southern border.

This scenario puts the Biden administration in a delicate position, seeking to balance criticism of the Maduro regime with the need to not worsen the migration situation, described by Magnotta as an “Achilles heel” for the current administration.

The analyst emphasizes that, although the US has been critical of the Venezuelan regime and has shown support for the opposition, the current situation requires a more cautious approach.

“The Americans are not neutral in this position, of course they have a side, but they are trying to manage this action based on their short-term circumstances,” he notes.

Brazil as a regional mediator

In this scenario, Brazil emerges as an important actor, assuming a regional leadership role in negotiations involving Venezuela.

Magnotta points out that this situation is convenient for the United States: “The Americans, as a diplomat told me recently, are leaving the dirty work, so to speak, to these countries that have very important regional interests in the Southern Cone.”

The expert concludes that this triangulation ends up benefiting the United States, allowing the country to maintain a position of attentive observer, delegating to other regional actors the responsibility of managing direct dialogue with Venezuela.

This strategy is not unprecedented, according to Magnotta, who recalls that Brazil has occupied similar positions in the past, acting as a sub-regional leader at critical moments.