Analysis: US midterm vote has been three elections in one

In the United States, elections are not linear. They bump into leaps and bounds, constantly evolving as they go.

This has been the story of the 2022 midterm elections in the country, which can be divided into three distinct acts, according to the analysis of the editor of the North American CNN, Chris Cillizza.

Act I

This first part of the election ran from January 2021 to June 2022. The defining quality of this stage of the election was Joe Biden’s waning popularity – burdened by the disastrous withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, rising inflation and fuel prices.

Biden began his term with a 57% approval rating, according to Gallup. By January 2022, it had dropped to 40% — and generally remained there all summer.

This was, in many ways, the model for a typical midterm election cycle. Presidents in their first term tend to suffer considerable losses in Congress as the country looks for ways to rein in their power.

At the same time, the majority party struggles to motivate its side and make clear what is at stake for its constituents.

act II

That portion of the election ran from June 24, 2022 until mid-September 2022. The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the abortion law, had a huge impact on the electorate. It helped to erase the lethargy within the Democratic base – overloading the stakes for their side.

Biden’s poll numbers also began to improve in this period, as gas prices began to fall.

By late August, Biden’s job approval rating had rebounded to 44% in the Gallup poll, and there were many Democrats (and some Republicans) who believed that ending the constitutional right to abortion was in the process of fundamentally reorienting 2022 race.

It was no longer a referendum on Biden’s presidency. Now it was a choice between Biden’s image for America and that of the Republicans, which included much of restricting women’s abortion rights.

Democrats began spending heavily on TV ads focused on abortion rights and what Republicans would do if given power. Meanwhile, Republicans continued to focus their message on taxes, inflation and, increasingly, crime.

act III

This stage of the election began in mid-September and continues to this day. And it looks a lot like Act I.

While abortion remains a critical issue for some of the Democratic base, it doesn’t seem to have the prominence with the electorate that Democrats had hoped for a few months ago. And the economy remains the key issue for most voters.

In a survey of CNN released earlier this week, 51% of likely voters named the economy as the most important issue to vote on in Congress, while just 15% cited abortion.

And crime has also become a central issue for many voters. In a recent Gallup poll, about 7 in 10 registered voters said crime was “extremely” or “very” important to their vote – putting the issue behind only the economy.

Non-partisan campaigners began to raise their predictions of Republican gains in this final act, with some saying the party could win a net of up to 30 seats in the House on Tuesday.

The last two years have been a roller coaster. There was a point not too long ago when Democrats believed they might be able to buck the historic precedent that pointed to big gains for Republicans in the House.

And even now, there is still hope in Democratic circles that they can retain a majority in the Senate, which would be a huge achievement given what we know about the electorate at the moment.

But overall, this election today looks a lot like what we thought it might look like less than two years ago. Biden’s numbers are bad. Concerns about inflation and a possible recession are rampant.

Crime is an obscure issue working on behalf of Republicans. And abortion, while still a major issue for some, seems to have taken a back seat to many voters’ minds.