Election polls cannot predict who will win the United States presidential election. They are imprecise and carry the potential for error.
So this year’s polls have revealed many significant things about how voters think about politics in 2024 — from Americans’ broad pessimism about the political landscape to the deep divide in values between supporters of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
As a rule, polls provide opinions rather than a prediction about how people might act in the future – be it how they will eventually vote or any other decisions they might make.
That’s especially true in this election, with polls showing no clear leader in the presidential race, either nationally or in the swing states that will likely be decisive in the outcome. And while most polls suggest a close race, a more decisive victory for either candidate remains among the possibilities.
“Single-point changes can have consequences for the outcome, but are beyond the ability of most polls to accurately capture,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University poll, wrote last week.
But throughout the year, polling data has helped capture the details of the 2024 race, with several findings that fall well outside the margin of error. The election is unfolding against a grim backdrop, the share of voters who say things in the US are going badly is higher than in any pre-election poll since 2008, and President Joe Biden’s approval rating has remained consistently and significantly below the expected level.
At the same time, to an unusual extent, the early days of the race were largely a referendum on Trump. This dynamic changed somewhat when Biden was replaced on the ticket by Kamala, triggering an immediate increase in Democratic motivation.
Although results of opinion polls on issues can sometimes vary based on framing, some results are important.
Americans continue to widely oppose the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. Wade – judicial decision that guarantees the option of abortion to pregnant women -, with the opposition consistently recording above 60% in polls in the CNN in the last two years.
Other issues show deep political divisions: in polls from CNN During the fall, Trump supporters were 46 percentage points more likely than Kamala supporters to say that growing diversity poses a threat to American culture, which coincided with the Trump campaign’s increasing reliance on anti-migrant rhetoric .
See more research findings from this year’s elections:
Which issues are important to which voters?
Economic issues are more important to voters than in any presidential election since the Great Recession in 2008, a Gallup poll released in October found, with concerns about democracy also scoring high this year.
Thinking that an issue is important, of course, doesn’t necessarily imply voting on that basis alone, but key issues research gives an idea of which concerns and campaign themes are resonating most with different parts of the electorate.
The Gallup poll, notably, found a stark partisan divide with no overlap among the top five issues for Republican and Republican-leaning and Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.
Among Republican-aligned voters, the highest-ranking issues are the economy, immigration, terrorism and national security, crime and taxes. Among Democratic-aligned voters are U.S. democracy, Supreme Court justices, abortion, health care and education.
How do Trump and Kamala supporters differ in their visions for America?
Partisan divisions on issues go beyond priorities.
A Pew Research Center report released this summer cataloged the differences between each candidate’s supporters “on issues that have divided Americans for decades, such as the role of guns in society, race and the legacy of slavery.”
Kamala supporters were about 50 points more likely than Trump supporters to say that the legacy of slavery continues to have a significant impact on black people in the U.S. today and that “opening America to people from all over world is essential to who we are as a nation.”
Trump supporters were about 40 points more likely than Kamala supporters to say that gun ownership increases safety and that the country’s criminal justice system is not strict enough.
What campaign news is emerging?
For much of the general election, a research project called The Breakthrough asked Americans a simple question: What have they seen, heard or read lately about each of the candidates?
In the final weeks of the campaign, Kamala’s media appearances and Trump’s rallies received a lot of attention. And while no topic proved as dominant during the election as the pandemic in 2020, the words “liar” and “lies” have consistently appeared prominently in the public conversation about Trump.
Breakthrough’s findings also helped chart the tumultuous final days of Biden’s campaign, the battle to frame Kamala as a candidate and the way Trump’s performance in the September debate helped elevate false claims about immigrants to the national stage.
Survey data is a single, imperfect indicator of people’s opinions—which may not always be morally, or even factually, correct.
But U.S. polls ultimately are a way to speak to Americans across a wide range of demographics, life experiences and views, about topics that go far beyond elections, or even politics.
In a deeply fragmented society, and with social media often reflecting an unrepresentative sample of the loudest voices, it is still a valuable tool for understanding the country as a whole.
This content originally appeared in Analysis: What do the polls say about the 2024 US elections? on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
