Analysis: What the Covid Crisis in North Korea Could Mean for Kim Jong Un

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears to be in trouble. His country has announced an “explosive” outbreak of Covid-19, reporting more than 2 million cases of what it refers to as “fever” in just over a week since the first case was reported.

In a largely underdeveloped and famously isolated country of 25 million people, where the vast majority of citizens are thought to be unvaccinated, there is the potential for a humanitarian disaster on a scale that could shake the power of any government in the world.

But Pyongyang is not just any government. In fact, some experts say that rather than weakening Kim, the outbreak may strengthen him — by giving him an excuse to increase his levies.

Kim has at his disposal an extensive propaganda machine and the ability to block information from abroad, which could help him shape the crisis narrative in his favor – just as his predecessors did with the famine in the 1990s, which it is estimated to have starved hundreds of thousands of North Koreans to death. At the time, Pyongyang touted its troubles as a “rough March” and blamed floods and American-imposed sanctions.

Kim is already showing signs of trying to engineer the new crisis. Even before announcing the outbreak, he was warning his officers to prepare for “another, more difficult ‘hard March. at the borders imposed by Kim to prevent the entry of the virus.

Analysts are also suspicious about the timing of Pyongyang’s recognition of Covid. The earlier insistence that the country was Covid-19 free has been a source of skepticism, and some suggest that the sudden openness about its problems is deliberately timed to coincide with a visit to the region by US President Joe Biden, who arrived at the country. South Korea on Thursday (19).

“The fact that Kim Jon Un chose to publicly announce the health crisis is revealing,” said Lina Yoon, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch. “It could have been a political element, obviously.”

That may not be the only way for Kim to ensure Pyongyang is at the top of the agenda for the US president’s meeting with the South’s new leader, Yoon Suk Yeol.

Washington intelligence suggests Kim is planning either a nuclear test or the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile to coincide with the visit – an assessment shared with South Korea, which has prepared plans to respond to possible “provocations” by Pyongyang. That would be consistent with Kim’s behavior in recent months. According to Seoul, on the same day North Korea announced the outbreak, it fired three low-range ballistic missiles into the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

What remains unknown is: Will Kim’s Covid-19 issues distract him from making a show of power, or make him more aggressive?

“Most serious state of emergency”

While Pyongyang may be trying to get attention, few would suggest it is exaggerating the outbreak. Indeed, the lack of official reports until recently has provoked skepticism.

The death rate as of Thursday was 62 casualties, but experts say the true number could be much higher and could take off.

State media reported that samples from some patients showed that they are contaminated by the highly transmissible variant Ômicron, which can become disastrous in a population that is largely unvaccinated, and, taking official calculations to be true, also has no prior immunity to the diseases. infections.

It is well known that North Korea has not imported Covid-19 vaccines – despite being eligible for the global vaccine-sharing program Covax. Last year, she publicly rejected an offer of nearly three million doses of vaccines from China’s Sinovac against Covid-19.

On Monday, three North Korean cargo planes flew to China and back, according to South Korean government officials. It is unknown what the planes were carrying, but the rare trip came after China said it would help North Korea with the outbreak.

“There is no evidence to show that North Korea has access to enough vaccines to protect its population from Covid-19,” said researcher Boram Jang from Amnesty International’s East Asia arm.

“With the first official news of a Covid-19 outbreak in the country, continuing on this path could cost many lives and an inconceivable neglect of defending the right to health.”

In response, Kim seems unnaturally willing to admit the troubles his country is facing, declaring the “most serious state of emergency” and ordering all provinces and cities to go into lockdown.

It seems unlikely that this will turn public anger against him, according to many experts, given Kim’s ability to manipulate the state’s extensive propaganda machinery — as long as he can prevent the crisis from directly affecting the country’s elites.

“If senior elites start dying en masse – there are a lot of them, and we don’t know if they are vaccinated – there could be questions about why North Korea didn’t get the vaccination done sooner,” said Chad O’Carroll. , director of Seoul-based news outlet NK News.

Since the outbreak was announced, along with videos telling people what to do if they exhibit symptoms of Covid, state-run television has devoted a lot of time to clips showing Kim inspecting epidemic command centers and pharmacies — perhaps designed to show that he is in control of the situation.

Kim’s Health System and Leadership Test

Still, Yoon at Human Rights Watch said the fact that Pyongyang is publicly acknowledging the crisis suggests it has “serious concerns” about the outbreak and the potential for it to spread.

“[Coreia do Norte] has an unvaccinated and chronically malnourished population, and has no drugs to treat the most basic symptoms of Covid-19,” Yoon said. “North Korea is much more fragile than any other country we know of.”

Yoon said North Korea is urgently asking for outside help, particularly with vaccines and medicines, and even if it accepts help — offers have come in from both the South and the World Health Organization (WHO) — the vaccination process is likely to be slow. due to the lack of transport infrastructure and stock of immunizers in the country.

“It will be a test of your leadership, and it will urgently require creativity in storytelling in the North Korean propaganda apparatus,” said NK News’ O’Carroll.

A priority for Kim’s state media will be explaining why border barriers have failed to keep Omicron out. O’Carroll pointed out that not only have these lockdowns failed, there is a driving factor in the severe food shortages facing countries as they have impeded the delivery of grain and fertilizer.

One option for Kim would be to make a public display of humility.

“We’ve seen Kim Jon Un cry over the nation’s sacrifices [no passado] — I think that’s the kind of thing I could do to lessen the riot,” O’Carroll said.

“North Korean citizens have been through a lot,” he said. “The first thing he can do is apologize and take some of the blame.”

Meanwhile, if Kim is thinking of putting on a show of force with Biden’s visit, he can imagine this will be one of his last displays of power.

O’Carroll said the timing of the outbreak in North Korea suggests that a major military parade last month to mark the 90th anniversary of the army’s founding had become a “superbroadcast” event.

Crowds watching the parade were shown on videos, celebrating without masks.

“We know that they brought citizens from all over North Korea to come to the parade and celebrate the event,” he said. “It’s the perfect petri dish to spread the virus, so I believe the parade will go down in the country’s history as a very bad idea.”

Source: CNN Brasil

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