Analysis: Why a criminal charge against Trump would have huge political and national implications

Trump’s prediction on Saturday that he could be arrested this week — and his attempt to spark a preemptive response — made what had been the theoretical prospect of a former president and 2024 candidate being criminally charged seem that much more real. . And it signaled that America is headed for an even more politically divisive ordeal that will test its hold on the Republican Party.

The property developer, former reality TV star and former Commander-in-Chief faces multiple investigations after trying to overturn the 2020 election and handling classified documents after leaving office. But his most immediate exposure may be in a case about an alleged bribe payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels.

As of the weekend, Trump had not received any official notification that he would be charged by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat. But a grand jury trial appears to be in its final stages and Trump’s legal team is bracing for the possibility of an indictment, sources told CNN.

The case revolves around whether Trump illegally covered up a $130,000 payment made by his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, to Daniels to keep an alleged previous relationship a secret before the election. de 2016. The episode could represent a violation of the campaign finance law. Trump says he has done nothing wrong and has denied having an affair with Daniels.

But the former president has launched a characteristic effort to discredit attempts to hold him to account, trying to intimidate prosecutors, mobilize his grassroots supporters and pressure senior Republican Party officials to join his side. Every American has a constitutional right to political self-expression, but the former president’s appeal this weekend to his supporters – “Protest, take our nation back” – has struck an ominous tone since he showed on Jan. willing to incite violence to further their interests.

Trump’s attorney, Alina Habba, told CNN’s Paula Reid on Sunday that there would be serious consequences if Trump were charged with a mere misdemeanor — a possible outcome of the Manhattan probe. “It will cause confusion, Paula. I mean, it’s a very scary time in our country,” Habba said. But she also said that “no one wants anyone to get hurt” and that Trump supporters should be “peaceful”.

Trump is taking advantage and underlining his dominance of the Republican Party

An indictment would again test the truism of the GOP in the Trump era — that his grip on the GOP’s most ardent supporters is so great that most of its lawmakers and officials feel obligated to appease him in order to preserve their political careers.

Trump’s effort to politicize the case and draw attention away from the charges against him has already worked, as his main allies in the Republican leadership attack Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy called the case “the weakest there is” on Sunday (19). The California Republican, who instructed GOP-led committees to investigate whether the Manhattan prosecutor used federal funds to investigate the silence payment, said at a news conference that he had already spoken with Ohio Representative Jim Jordan – who is investigating government “weaponsing” against political opponents – on the analysis of this issue.

But the speaker also said people shouldn’t protest about what may or may not happen and insisted Trump didn’t want that either. “If that happens, we want it to be quiet out there… no violence or harm to anyone else,” McCarthy said.

Further underscoring Trump’s firm hold on the Republican Party base, his social media post prompted several of his Republican critics to line up with him. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is planning a campaign to challenge Trump for the 2024 nomination, told ABC News: “Sounds like a politically charged accusation here. And I, for my part, feel that is not what the American people want to see.”

Republican New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who has said it’s time for Republicans to let go of Trump, told Jake Tapper on CNN’s “State of the Union” that Bragg’s investigation was “generating a lot of sympathy for the former president.” He added: “I (had) coffee this morning with a few people, and none of them were big Trump supporters, but they all said they felt he was being attacked.”

Serious challenges the nation would face if Trump were criminally charged

The possibility that the former president could be charged soon has serious implications.

The indictment of a former president would be unprecedented in US history and would mark another dubious distinction for Trump, twice impeached, who sought to disrupt the historic tradition of peaceful transfers of power and lied about his defeat in the 2020 election. there is a tradition of former US leaders being hounded by successor administrations. So even if the cases against Trump are legally justified, prosecutors in New York, as well as those in Georgia and the Department of Justice, face a dangerous and unknown moment.

The situation is even more tense because Trump is already an active candidate for the 2024 White House race and already bases his campaign on a persecution narrative, especially with regard to investigations into his conduct after the last election. He’s also promising a “payback” presidency against his enemies if he wins the Oval Office again.

If charged, Trump would still enjoy constitutional protections and the presumption of innocence before any trial. In a fragile national moment, other political figures and the media will also face pressure not to respond to his efforts to inflame the situation. Trump is already trying to portray possible prosecutions against him by the Justice Department as politically motivated weapons of justice, in a way that presents a new challenge to President Joe Biden, his former and possibly future opponent in the general election.

An indictment would potentially topple the 2024 Republican presidential primary, with Trump intimidating opponents to support his claims of innocence and portraying any failure to do so as siding with what he sees as a partisan investigation for political gain. Neither Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a potential Republican nominee, nor former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who is already in the race, have commented on a situation that presents them with a risky dilemma. But both would have a strong interest in preventing the 2024 primary campaign from revolving exclusively around Trump portraying himself as a political martyr.

The first Republican nomination contests are nearly a year away, so it’s impossible to judge how GOP primary voters and a national constituency might react to any accusations by the former president. Sununu, who is also considering a presidential candidacy, accused Democrats of building sympathy for Trump with investigations like Bragg’s in a way that could “drastically shift the paradigm as we move into the ’24 election.” But there is already a palpable sense among some voters that it is time to move away from the drama, chaos and legal entanglements constantly created by Trump’s behavior. The former president’s attempt to elevate his election-denying supporters to power cost Republicans in swing states dearly in last year’s midterm elections. An indictment would add to the debate over whether Trump’s personality and political appeal are so damaged that he couldn’t win a general election.

An indictment in the Daniels case would not be Trump’s only — or possibly his most serious — legal problem. The Justice Department is investigating his role in the January 6 mob attack on the US Capitol and Trump’s effort to overthrow the 2020 election is still expanding. A separate special grand jury investigated Trump’s pressure on local officials to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory in Georgia. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis said in late January that the rulings at the inquiry were “imminent”. While an indictment in New York could be seen as politically invigorating for the Trump campaign, it’s hard to see how a jumble of indictments or trials in multiple cases would allow him to focus fully on a credible presidential candidacy.

Any accusation against Trump would be rooted in the principle that no one, not even a former president, is above the law. But given the unusual nature and complexity of the case and the opinion of some legal experts that a conviction could be challenging, there will also be questions about whether the former president’s notoriety would be a factor in any decision to indict him. Their lawyers might argue that someone less famous or politically active would have been treated differently.

There is also the question of whether the political division and trauma of bringing Trump to trial would be in the broader national interest — at least in a very narrow case that appears to have fewer lasting constitutional implications than those related to the Jan. 6 investigations. History may not look kindly on any failed prosecution.

The fact that the Daniels case dates back to an election that is more than six years old, even as the country faces another campaign for the White House, could also raise questions for the public, especially given the uncertainty about the case for anyone outside the country. little research bubble. Arizona Democratic Senator Mark Kelly told CNN’s Jake Tapper on the “State of the Union” show on Sunday that “no one in our nation is or should be above the law.” But he also said: “I hope that if they file charges they will have a strong case because this is… unprecedented. And there are certainly risks involved here.”

Kelly’s comment underscored how Trump, nearly eight years after bursting onto the scene with an upstart presidential campaign, is again breaking conventions about the role of presidents and former presidents in national life. He again may be about to leap into the center, in the most controversial way, of the national psyche and political debate.