Analysis: why are Europe’s youth flirting with the far right?

Pollsters were surprised by the explosion of populism in 2016, but many now think they shouldn’t have been.

In the United States and the United Kingdom, groups of voters in disadvantaged regions – places “left behind” by globalization – had the opportunity to join the system, and took advantage of it. Why was anyone surprised?

Those responsible for the research were now surprised by another trend.

In this month’s European Parliament elections, far-right parties performed predictably well – but especially, and unexpectedly, among young people.

A few years ago, the “Climate Generation” – considered unquestionably liberal and progressive – voted mostly for the Greens. But now, your vote has helped far-right parties win one in four seats in Brussels.

What happened?

Perhaps “left behind” is not just a geographic phenomenon, but a generational one.

Generation Z – those born between 1995 and 2012 – was baptized in crises: first the global financial crisis of 2008, then the Eurozone public debt the following year, then the Covid-19 pandemic and now the war in Europe .

More and more young people believe they will have more difficult lives than their parents. Why should a generation left behind be less vulnerable to the pull of populism than those left behind?

Roberto Foa, co-director of the Center for the Future of Democracy at the University of Cambridge, a leading researcher on young people’s dissatisfaction with democracy, sees “two major divisions” in Western societies.

“The division of wealth between the economically successful and those left behind regions and the intergenerational divide in life opportunities,” he said.

Political scientists may have ignored both groups because they have long been disconnected. But now their apathy is turning into antipathy – a desire, once again, to join the system.

“If you are a political entrepreneur looking to break the established system, these are your options, in terms of mobilizing new support,” Foa told CNN . The trend, he says, has been around for a long time: “I’m surprised that people are surprised.”

Young people’s support for far-right parties was felt in several European countries. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 16% of the under-25 vote in the EU elections – tripling its share in this age group compared to the previous vote in 2019.

Among French voters under 34, Réunion National (RN) was the most popular party, with 32% of the vote – an increase of 10 points compared to 2019.

In Poland, 30% of voters under 30 supported the far-right Confederation party, compared to 18.5% in 2019.

Far-right parties benefited from a similar increase in support in the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Austria and continued to perform well in Italy.

Generation, not geography

Consider these policy proposals. Young people will not pay income tax. If you start a company, you will be exempt from corporation tax for five years.

Working students will have their salaries supplemented by the State, which will also build 100,000 student accommodation units. They can also travel by train for free.

You would be forgiven for thinking that this must be the platform of the far left. But no: this was doyenne Marine Le Pen’s bid in the 2022 French presidential elections, which she narrowly lost.

The young people, unsurprisingly, loved it. Just under 50% of young people aged 25 to 34 who voted opted for Le Pen, compared to just 41% of the general population and 29% of voters over 70.

While older voters brought Donald Trump to the White House and took the United Kingdom out of the European Union, it was they who kept the French far right at bay.

This may soon change. After his Renaissance party was defeated by the far right in the EU elections, President Emmanuel Macron called early parliamentary elections, which could result in Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN leader, becoming prime minister of France next month.

For Arthur Prevot, manager of the RN youth wing in Paris, this is great news. Macron’s presidency has failed to benefit young people, he says.

“Purchasing power has decreased incredibly over the last seven years. Between the ‘yellow vest’ crisis, the rise in fuel prices and all the different taxes that have been introduced – all of this has an impact on everyday life, including mine,” Prevot, 22, told CNN .

His economic concerns led him to join the party that could soon govern France, although Macron remains president.

Jonathan Verbeken, candidate for deputy for RN in the 15th district of Paris, said the main reason he joined the party was because “we see people suffering every day, struggling to survive. We see a deplorable situation in France, specifically with regard to security and immigration. We want to react to that.”

For many older voters, RN remains a terrifying prospect. Despite its years-long effort to “normalize,” previous generations remember its anti-Semitic and neo-fascist origins.

But young voters seem less concerned about these roots, says Simon Schnetzer, author of a recent survey of German youth.

“Young people are first-time voters. They are a blank slate. What most guides your decisions is: who can offer me something that best meets my needs?” he said to CNN .

The lack of historical baggage, combined with the strange death of center-left parties in many parts of Europe, has allowed the far right to appear respectable and armed with economic solutions to young people’s problems.

Sarah-Lee Heinrichs, a 23-year-old politician with the German Green Party, said economic concerns have become much more prevalent among young people since the last European Parliament elections in 2019, when the Greens became the second-largest party in Germany. Germany for the first time.

In the wake of the pandemic, large-scale war in Ukraine and the return of rising inflation, environmentalism is no longer a priority for young people, she says.

“If governments don’t provide social security – good jobs and a place to live that doesn’t cost more than 50% of your income every month – then the far right will grow,” Heinrichs told CNN .

And with economic insecurity comes fiercer opposition to immigration, nearly a decade after the continent — and especially Germany — took in record numbers of refugees fleeing the war in Syria.

An alarming new trend began last month after a short clip filmed on the German holiday island of Sylt was posted on X (formerly Twitter).

In the video, well-dressed young Germans sing “Ausländer Raus!” (“Foreigners out!”) and “Deutschland den Deutschen!” (“Germany for Germans!”) on a 1999 Eurodance beat.

Since then, the song has spread throughout the country, which currently hosts the European football championship, Euro. Its appeal is not limited to Germans. As Italy played Spain last week, fans in the stadium could be heard making their own interpretation.

Swiping right

If this is the “demand” side, what about the supply?

After her center-right bloc secured the most seats in the European Parliament, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen took to the stage in Brussels to give a victory speech.

But her tone was more somber than victorious. She spoke of the importance of defending European values: integration, democracy and the rule of law.

How do these abstract values ​​sound to young voters?

“Will young people check if this helps me with any of my needs? Does this amuse me? Does this give me security? It’s fun? And if it’s nothing like that, it’s boring,” Schnetzer said. “If you have this TikTok logic, you will swipe even faster.”

While Europe’s mainstream makes serious speeches, the far right is gaining a large following on the social media platform TikTok.

Bardella posts videos of himself tasting wine and taking shots. Maximilian Krah, the AfD’s main candidate in the EU elections, offers his followers dating advice: “Don’t watch porn, don’t vote for the Greens.”

In one TikTok, Nigel Farage – often described as the “architect” of Brexit – approaches a fruit shop, says “beautiful melons”, raises his eyebrows and walks away. The clip has been viewed 2.5 million times.

Farage appears to be aware of this expanding market and interested in exploiting it. In a recent interview, he praised misogynistic influencer Andrew Tate for being an “important voice” for “emasculated” young men.

Tate – who has racked up billions of views on TikTok – faces charges in Romania of human trafficking and rape, which he denies.

But those who were intrigued by Tate’s appeal to young people shouldn’t be surprised that politicians who joke about breasts have similar success.

The distinction between politics and entertainment has long become blurred – but for today’s young people, they no longer even exist in separate spaces. Just a touch separates the voice of a figure like Tate and the voice of a politician. We shouldn’t be surprised if this is where ideas are formed.

Excitement for the new

It remains unclear to what extent these far-right sympathies are maintained. In a trend especially pronounced among young people, voters “are not loyal to any particular party or platform,” says Foa.

“They are very volatile from one election to the next.” Just as young voters campaigned passionately for Green parties in 2019, their allegiances could shift again.

The appeal of the far right could also be weakened if its politicians begin to govern. Out of power, the far right is incapable of breaking promises, while at the same time it can endlessly point to the mainstream’s inability to deliver. Once in government, it will be equally disappointing. That, at least, appears to be Macron’s theory.

But the explosion of support for far-right parties could signal a darker trend. In his studies of young people’s dissatisfaction with democracy, Foa noticed a growing tendency towards authoritarianism.

Lacking a personal memory of life under an authoritarian regime or the struggle to achieve democracy, young people are less in love with the system than previous generations.

This success of far-right parties should serve as a warning to the European mainstream. To Churchill’s famous quote, “Democracy is the worst form of government except all the others,” we shouldn’t be surprised if young people retort, “Really?”