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Analysis: Why Netanyahu Is Suddenly Much Less Friendly With Putin

Editor’s Note: Anshel Pfeffer (@anshelpfeffer) is a writer for Ha’aretz and Israel correspondent for The Economist. He is the author of “Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu”. The opinions expressed here are private. Read more opinion on CNN.

Long before the start of the current war in Ukraine, almost a year ago, Israel maintained strict neutrality in hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. That may be about to change.

Since coming to power in late 1999, Russian President Vladimir Putin has struggled to court the Israeli leadership. He made a point of holding a meeting at least once a year with the acting Israeli prime minister, usually at their residences in Sochi or Moscow, and every few years he traveled to Jerusalem.

A former Russian diplomat explained to me that “Putin respects strength and sees Israel as a strong country with which he wants to maintain good relations.”

The same goes for Israel’s leaders, especially Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, who returned to office in late 2022.

Netanyahu was so proud of what he claimed was a close relationship with Putin that in 2019 he used photos of them together as part of his election campaign. He stated on several occasions that their relationship was advantageous to Israel’s strategic interests.

An example of this was when Russia first sent its military into war-torn Syria in September 2015 to support the blood-soaked regime of President Bashar Assad. Within days, Netanyahu was in Moscow at the head of a military delegation for an unscheduled meeting with Putin.

The two leaders reached an agreement under which Israel would continue to operate in Syrian airspace but would only attack targets linked to its enemy Iran, leaving Assad’s forces untouched. A “de-conflict mechanism”, including a direct line between the Russian command center in Syria and the Israeli air force headquarters, was quickly established.

Over the years, Israeli officials have been at pains to emphasize that while Israel’s main strategic ally remains the United States, it was crucial to maintain coordination with the Russians.

In 2014, despite pressure from Washington, Israel refused to join Western governments in condemning Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Strict neutrality was to be maintained at all times.

When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 last year, Netanyahu was not in office. The Prime Minister was Naftali Bennett and he maintained the policy of neutrality.

Bennett explained to me that “we are not in the same position as other countries. We have Russia just beyond our border in Syria. We have to take into account the presence of large Jewish communities in Russia and Ukraine, which could be affected. In addition, it is useful for everyone to have a government like Israel’s, which has good ties with both sides to serve as an intermediary.”

In the first weeks of the war, Bennett embarked on a peacekeeping mission in which he visited Putin in the Kremlin and had several conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He insists that “there was a 50% chance of reaching a ceasefire, but unfortunately it failed”. He also claims that his involvement helped to broker short-term local truces, which saved civilians from the war zone.

Any hope of a ceasefire is long gone, and Ukraine has since publicly requested that Israel help supply weapons, especially with missile defense systems like the Iron Dome. Israel sent humanitarian aid but refused to send weapons.

In recent months, when Russia began using Iranian drones to attack Ukrainian targets, Israel agreed to provide Kiev, through NATO, with intelligence and technical information on how to counter the Iranian drone threat.

Not everyone in the Israeli leadership agreed with Bennett’s neutral policy. His political partner and then foreign minister, Yair Lapid, was more direct in publicly condemning Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

Opinions were also divided on the country’s security establishment. An Israeli general told me that “Russia’s fear is exaggerated and Israel could have given much more support to Ukraine without fear of retaliation.”

Ten months after the Russian invasion, Netanyahu returned to office. Suddenly, he became much less friendly with Putin . He got a congratulatory call from him a week before his inauguration, but that was about it. Meanwhile, in media interviews, he said he was reconsidering Israel’s policy on the Ukraine war, though he did not specify any details.

An Israeli general told me that ‘the fear of Russia is exaggerated and Israel could have given much more support to Ukraine without fear of retaliation’

Anshel Pfeffer

“Netanyahu has two immediate reasons for changing policy and supporting Ukraine,” a former Israeli intelligence officer who was deeply involved in Israel’s military relationship with Russia told me.

“First, Russia has greatly diluted its forces in Syria, as they were needed in Ukraine. Their threat to Israel is now negligible,” the official said.

“Second, Russia is now using Iranian drones and missiles on the battlefield and Israel now has a valuable opportunity to supply Ukraine with defense systems so we can see how well they fare in a real war. One day we may have to face the same Iranian weapons,” added the official.

An Israeli diplomat adds another reason why Netanyahu would consider backing Ukraine more strongly. Unlike the Bennett-Lapid administration, his new coalition of far-right and ultra-religious parties is viewed with suspicion by the Biden administration, which has already voiced its displeasure with the new administration’s plans for legal reform, which drastically weaken the powers and independence of the Supreme Court of Israel.

Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Jerusalem and, unlike previous visits, did not extend an invitation to the White House to the prime minister.

An Israeli move towards Kiev may be Netanyahu’s best hope for winning Washington’s favour.

Source: CNN Brasil

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