Analysis: Why North Korea is launching missiles and the role of the West

Tensions are rising on the Korean peninsula as the United States and its allies respond to the flurry of recent North Korean missile tests — including one that flew over neighboring Japan without warning.

North Korea has fired six missiles in the past two weeks — a prolific number, even in a year that has seen the most launches since leader Kim Jong Un took power in 2011.

The aggressive acceleration in weapons testing has raised alarm in the region, with the US, South Korea and Japan responding with missile launches and joint military exercises this week. The US also redeployed an aircraft carrier in waters off the peninsula, a move South Korean officials called “very unusual”.

International leaders are now on the lookout for signs of a further escalation, such as a potential nuclear test that would be the hermit nation’s first in nearly five years – a move that would present US President Joe Biden with a potential new foreign policy crisis. .

Here’s what you need to know about North Korea’s rush towards nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles, why they are on the rise now – and what the US can do to fight Kim Jong Un.

First, some context

The test itself is not new – North Korea’s weapons development program has been ongoing for years.

Tensions reached near-crisis levels in 2017, when North Korea launched 23 missiles over the year, including two over Japan, in addition to carrying out a nuclear test. Tests showed weapons with enough power to bring most of the world within range, including the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

Relations melted in 2018 when then-US President Donald Trump held a historic summit with Kim. The two leaders “fell in love,” Trump said; in return, Kim praised their “special” relationship. North Korea has vowed to freeze missile launches and has apparently destroyed several facilities at the nuclear test site, while the US has suspended large-scale military exercises with South Korea and other regional allies.

But the talks eventually fell apart, and hopes of a deal that would see the North scale back its nuclear ambitions waned by the end of Trump’s term.

Then the Covid-19 pandemic hit, pushing North Korea even further into isolation. The already impoverished country has completely closed its borders, with foreign diplomats and aid workers fleeing en masse. During that period, the number of missile launches also remained low – just four in 2020 and eight in 2021.

So why are they increasing now?

Experts say there are a few reasons why North Korea is ramping up its tests so quickly now.

First, it may simply be the right moment after the events of the past few years, with Kim declaring victory against Covid in August, and a new US government in place that has focused on demonstrations of unity with South Korea.

“They haven’t been able to test for a few years due to political considerations, so I hope North Korean engineers and generals are very keen to make sure their toys work well,” said Andrei Lankov, a professor. at Kookmin University in South Korea.

Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said it was also normal for North Korea to stop testing during the blustery summer and resume once the weather improves in the fall.

But according to several experts, Kim may also be sending a message by deliberately presenting North Korea’s arsenal during a period of intense global conflict.

“They want to remind the world that they shouldn’t be ignored, that they exist and their engineers are working day and night to develop nuclear weapons and launch systems,” Lankov said.

Carl Schuster, former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, echoed that sentiment. Kim “launches missiles to draw attention to himself, but also to pressure Japan and the United States to stand up to him,” he said.

He added that North Korea may also feel encouraged to act now, while the West is distracted by the war in Ukraine.

“(The missile tests) started in January, when we started reporting what Russian President Vladimir Putin was doing against Ukraine,” Schuster said. “Kim Jong Un is doing what he thinks he can get away with – he doesn’t expect any kind of strong reaction from the US.”

Lankov said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may also have boosted Kim’s confidence because it “demonstrated that if you have nuclear weapons, you can have near impunity. And if you don’t have nuclear weapons, you’re in trouble.”

What can the US and its allies do to stop North Korea?

Despite the rapid military response by the US and its allies in the past week, experts say there is little they can do to prevent or prepare for North Korea’s weapons tests.

“The Americans sent the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan. The South Koreans are launching these missiles, which are not necessarily working well,” Lankov said, referring to a South Korean missile on Wednesday that crashed shortly after launch. “What is the impact of all these American aircraft carriers crossing Korea? Practically nothing.”

While these shows of force could serve to stop North Korea from “starting a war” – which is probably not Kim’s plan anyway – it does little to stop weapons development or missile tests,” he said. he.

“It will probably make some people in the US and (South Korea) a little happier, but it will have zero impact on North Korean behavior and decision-making.”

The lack of solid intelligence also means the US is largely left in the dark when it comes to Kim’s plans.

The North lacks the widespread use of technology that not only facilitates economic and social advances but also provides critical windows and opportunities to gather information for US intelligence services and their allies.

“Since so much of what North Korea does is directed by the leader itself, you really have to get inside his head, and that’s a tough intelligence problem,” said Chris Johnstone, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

And on the international stage, US efforts to punish North Korea have failed due to the backlash from Moscow and Beijing.

In May, Russia and China vetoed a U.S.-drafted UN resolution to strengthen sanctions on North Korea for its weapons tests — the first time a country has blocked a sanctions vote against the North since 2006.

What is North Korea trying to achieve?

Kim led an aggressive weapons development program that far surpassed the efforts of his father and grandfather, both former North Korean leaders – and experts say the country’s nuclear program is at the heart of Kim’s ambitions.

In September, North Korea passed a law declaring itself a nuclear-weapon state, with Kim vowing to “never give up” on nuclear weapons.

The law also demonstrated North Korea’s hopes of strengthening its ties with China and Russia, said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

After China and Russia’s open opposition to new sanctions against North Korea, Kim “knows he has their support,” Schuster said.

He added that Kim’s weapons tests serve a dual purpose: in addition to making a statement to the international community, it also enhances his own image domestically and consolidates the regime’s power.

“It’s a very paranoid regime — (Kim) is just as concerned about the people under him as he is about regime change on the outside,” Schuster said. With the tests, Kim is telling his own superiors, “We can handle any threat the West, the US and South Korea might present,” he said.

However, in terms of broader public perception, KCNA, North Korea’s state media, has not made any mention of missile launches in months – since its last report of a launch in March.

Lewis, the Middlebury Institute expert, added that North Korea will likely continue to develop weapons like ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles until they “get to a point where they are satisfied with that – so I think they will likely express interest in speaking up again. ”

Is a nuclear test coming?

The near-term concern is whether North Korea will launch a nuclear test, which Lewis said could happen “at any moment”.

However, Schuster and Lankov said that given the friendly relationship between North Korea and China, Kim can wait until China holds its Communist Party Congress later this month — if that ever happens.

The party elite meeting is the most significant event on the Chinese political calendar – especially this year, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping expected to be nominated for a third term, further cementing his status as the most powerful Chinese leader in decades. .

Kim “relies too much on Chinese help to keep his country afloat,” meaning he can’t “do anything to harm the Party Congress,” Schuster said. “So while China can’t dictate to him what he should do, he won’t cause them any trouble.”

After October, however, the track is free for more significant weapons testing, Lankov said.

South Korean and US officials have been warning since May that North Korea may be preparing for a nuclear test, with satellite images showing activity at its underground nuclear test site.

With information from Brad Lendon, Kevin Liptak, Katie Bo Lillis, Phil Mattingly and Kylie Atwood of CNN