Analysis: With Tactical Nuclear Weapons Plan in Belarus, Putin Is Scaring the World to Distract Its Problems

Vladimir Putin says he plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, the neighboring ally of which he staged part of his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. main reasons why he said that.

As usual with Putin, the world must read the fine print and check the context. The weapons Putin plans to bring to Belarus are not strategic nuclear weapons, those gigantic intercontinental ballistic missiles that, if fired, could wipe out life on Earth.

Tactical nukes are smaller but powerful and can be used on the battlefield. Putin has been threatening the possibility of nuclear war for a year now, especially as his military operation in Ukraine falters.

This may help explain the context of Putin’s announcement. He’s a man with a lot of problems right now. Russian forces are bombing Ukrainian cities from the air, but their ground war is not making much headway.

Aside from several new trade deals with China, Putin hasn’t gotten much out of his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Indeed, Russia now appears to be China’s minority partner.

Then there is the International Criminal Court and the arrest warrant it issued for Putin.

Now about the fine print.

Putin is blaming the other side for his decision, saying he made it in response to Britain supplying Ukraine with anti-tank munitions containing depleted uranium.

This, Putin accuses, is a dangerous escalation. The UK denies this, explaining that the ammunition is only used for conventional purposes.

Putin says Russia is already building a storage facility for the tactical nuclear weapons that will be ready by July. He did not give any specific date when the tactical weapons would arrive.

What’s more, he notes, Russia already has 10 aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons, as well as several short-range Iskander missile systems that can carry nuclear weapons.

Significantly, the Russian leader has said he will not transfer control of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has long requested the weapons.

That sounds odd to two former US diplomats I spoke with.

Lukashenko, they point out, signed an agreement in 1994 to give up the strategic nuclear weapons that Belarus still possessed at the end of the Cold War.

Why would he decide to do this? One diplomat points out that the weapons would have to be held by Russian forces who would be permanently stationed on Belarusian soil, a sign that Lukashenko is even more under Putin’s control.

The Biden administration appears unfazed by Putin’s announcement. National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said the US was monitoring the implications of Putin’s statement, but added: “We see no reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture, nor any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon. We remain committed to the collective defense of the NATO alliance.”

And yet, moving Russian tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus brings them closer not only to Ukraine but also to Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, all NATO allies.