Analysis: Xi Jinping gained power; see what it means to the world

It was a crowning moment for Xi Jinping as he stepped onto the red carpet on Sunday to begin his third term as China’s supreme leader.

At 69, Xi Jinping emerged from the Chinese Communist Party’s five-year congress in government with more power than ever, with longtime protégés and staunch allies at the highest levels of his party.

This loyal inner circle not only strengthened Xi’s power, but also tightened his grip on China’s future. To an extent unheard of in decades, the country’s trajectory is shaped by one man’s vision and ambition, with minimal room for discord or recalibration at the apex of party power.

In Xi’s eyes, China is closer than ever to realizing its dream of “national rejuvenation” and regaining its rightful place in the world. But the road ahead is also beset by “high winds, choppy waters or even dangerous storms” — a grim warning Xi Jinping delivered at the beginning and end of the week-long congress.

The growing challenges stemmed from “a bleak and complex international situation,” with “external attempts to suppress and contain China” threatening to “escalate at any moment,” according to Xi’s work report to the congress.

Observers say Xi’s response to this bleak outlook is to step up fierce defense of China’s national interests and security against all perceived threats.

“Xi is likely to tightly control and be involved in all major foreign policy decisions. His packaging of top Chinese leadership with loyalists will allow him to better control and exert influence,” said Bonny Lin, director of the China Energy Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

What he decides to do – and how he goes about doing it – will have a profound impact on the world.

China and the West

Xi Jinping enters his next era in power facing a significantly different landscape from his two previous terms. The relationship between China and the West has changed dramatically with US-China relations deteriorating because of a trade and technology war, frictions over Taiwan, Covid-19, Beijing’s human rights record and its refusal to condemn Russia’s war. in Ukraine.

Xi’s work report, a five-year action plan delivered during the congress, pointed to “drastic changes” on the international scene, including “external attempts to blackmail, contain, block and exert maximum pressure” on China – terms often used by diplomats. Chinese to condemn the actions of the United States.

“It’s clear that Xi sees China entering a period primarily of struggle in the international arena rather than a period of opportunity,” said Andrew Small, author of “No Limits: The Inside Story of China’s War with the West.” No Limits: The Inside Story of China’s War with the West”.

An expectation that ties will deteriorate further “is resulting in a China that is far more openly engaged in systemic rivalry with the West – greater assertiveness, more open ideologically hostile positions, more efforts to build its own counter-coalitions, and a greater push to strengthen China’s position in the developing world,” he said.

These pressures are also likely to affect Beijing’s close relationship with Moscow. While China has sought to appear as a neutral actor in the war in Ukraine, it has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion and instead blamed the West for the conflict — a dynamic that is also unlikely to change.

“[Xi] It already appears to have lowered many of the costs that result (from that relationship) for China’s relations with the West and Europe in particular,” said Small.

threat to Taiwan

At the opening of the congress on October 16, Xi Jinping won the loudest and longest standing ovation of the nearly 2,300 hand-picked delegates inside Beijing’s Great Hall of the People when he promised to “reunify” the mainland with Taiwan – a self-governing democracy that Beijing claims as its own, despite never having controlled it.

China “would strive for peaceful reunification,” Xi said, before giving a grim warning that Beijing would “never promise to renounce the use of force.”

“The wheels of history are turning towards the reunification of China and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The complete reunification of our country must be accomplished,” Xi told the congress to thunderous applause.

Under Xi, Beijing has increased military pressure on Taiwan, sending warplanes and holding military exercises near the island. After China’s tacit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, concerns have only increased over Beijing’s plans for Taiwan.

CSIS’s Lin said Xi’s work report does not reveal any major changes in Beijing’s policy towards Taiwan, but the reshuffle of leadership in the Chinese military could provide clues to its “desire to make more ‘progress’ in China.” unification with the island”.

He Weidong, a former commander of the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Base Command, which oversees the Taiwan Strait, was unexpectedly promoted to vice chairman of the Central Military Commission — despite never having served in the corps before.

“This suggests that Xi is taking the possibility of a military crisis or conflict very seriously and wants to ensure that the People’s Liberation Army is ready,” Lin said. “I don’t believe Xi is determined to use significant force against Taiwan, but he is taking steps to prepare for it.”

Xi’s work report also outlined an ambition for China to become more adept at mobilizing its military forces regularly and in diverse ways to enable it to “win local wars”.

“Xi evidently wants the People’s Liberation Army to be able to win a war to take control of Taiwan if he chooses to do so, whether or not his calculations are that this is indeed a risk worth taking. That’s always the top priority,” said Small, who is also a senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank.

Small pointed to a number of risk junctures for an escalation in the Taiwan Strait in the coming years, including the island’s upcoming 2024 presidential election.

“The fact is that the People’s Liberation Army has not been seriously battle-tested in decades, and one of the questions in the next period will be whether they can effectively prepare for that,” he said.

The economy

Speaking in a televised speech on Sunday after announcing his new leadership team – the party’s Politburo Standing Committee – Xi Jinping promised that China’s door to the world “would only widen” and that the country’s own development “would create more opportunities for the world”.

“China cannot develop in isolation from the world, and the world also needs China for its development,” he said.

But China today is more physically closed off than it was decades ago. Xi continues to support a costly “zero Covid” policy that keeps borders heavily restricted and regularly puts its cities into lockdown, dragging down China’s economic growth.

Xi’s pledge also appears to have done little to reassure investors. On Monday, the Hong Kong stock market – where many of China’s biggest companies are listed – had its worst day since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Alibaba and Tencent, China’s two top tech giants, are down more than 11%, wiping out a total of $54 billion in their market capitalizations.

The stakes are high for how the world’s second-largest economy will tackle these challenges, especially at a time when the risk of a global economic recession looms.

Xi’s apparent interest in integrating domestic and international security could “translate into policies such as sanctions against foreign companies (and) more bureaucracy when there is foreign investment in Chinese technology companies,” according to Victor Shih, an expert on Chinese security policy. elite at the University of California, San Diego.

And while Xi Jinping has said that promoting China’s “international position and influence,” including supporting global development, is among his top goals for the next five years, Beijing may no longer be able to count on the same level of economic engagement. to do so in a more divided world.