Analysis: Xi Jinping's next target is the military?

For much of 2023, a storm has silently engulfed the world's largest military – China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Behind the government walls and military complexes of the Chinese capital, powerful generals, one after another, were no longer seen in public. Some were removed from their positions without explanation, even in the case of important positions such as Minister of Defense.

After months of intense public speculation and evasive responses from government spokespeople, the clearest sign of a “widespread purge” in China's military came in late December, when nine high-ranking PLA officers were removed from the highest legislature in the country.

Although the National People's Congress (CNP) itself is only a protocol parliament, its members have a certain degree of immunity from arrest and criminal prosecution granted by the Constitution. Previously, these sudden expulsions often served as an introduction to further disciplinary or legal action.

In keeping with the lack of transparency surrounding Chinese elite politics, no reason was given for the sudden expulsion of the generals from the legislature.

But experts who have long studied China's military point to a cleansing of corruption as the likely cause – possibly due to the acquisition and development of advanced equipment that has been a key element in leader Xi Jinping's efforts to “modernize” the military. ELP and transform it into a “world-class” fighting force.

For some, the scale and depth of the latest cleanups are reminiscent of corruption investigations in the early years of Xi's term, which led to the ouster of several high-ranking generals and their subordinates.

Xi has made rooting out corruption and disloyalty a hallmark of his government since coming to power in 2012, and the latest changes suggest the campaign is far from over within the military.

At the heart of the latest cleanup is the PLA Rocket Force, an elite branch that Xi built to oversee China's rapidly expanding arsenal of nuclear and ballistic missiles. The Chinese leader described the force as a “core of strategic deterrence, a reinforcement of the country's position as a great power and a cornerstone on which to build national security.”

“At this point, it is obvious to Xi Jinping and the Chinese high command that the leadership of the Rocket Force has been compromised,” said James Char, a longtime PLA observer and researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“If this were to worsen in the long term, it would certainly have repercussions on the PLA’s overall combat capabilities,” Char said.

Corruption center

Among the nine PLA officials expelled from the legislature, five are linked to the Rocket Force. The most notable was General Li Yuchao, who was suddenly replaced as commander in July, along with his political commissar. Li's predecessor and two former deputy commanders were also on the list, as well as an official in charge of the force's equipment acquisition.

Three more of those dismissed were also involved in weapons procurement – ​​two coming from the PLA Equipment Development department, while the other oversaw equipment for the PLA Navy's South Sea Fleet before becoming its commander. The other general fired from the legislature was a former PLA Air Force commander.

“From the affiliation of these nine officials… we can more or less assume that corruption is the main cause behind the investigations into their misdeeds,” Char said.

The dismissal of the nine military personnel came just two days after three aerospace executives from China's military-industrial complex were removed from their positions at the country's top political advisory body.

The action against these three executives, coming from state-owned defense companies that manufacture weapons and missiles, is seen by some analysts as yet another indication of an investigation into corruption in military procurement for the Rocket Force – a highly secretive and lucrative field, replete with of billions of dollars of financing that constitutes fertile ground for corruption.

“The PLA Rocket Force has received a lot of expensive equipment since 2016,” Char said, referring to the time of Xi's sweeping military reforms.

As part of this ambitious review, the Rocket Force was upgraded to a full armed service from the former Second Artillery Corps. It has since launched an unprecedented expansion, adding powerful new intercontinental and intermediate-range ballistic missiles to its arsenal and increasing the number of missile brigades from 29 to 40.

“Clearly, with this increase in the size of the PLA Rocket Force, the amount of equipment and money the PLA has invested in the service is immense,” said Char.

In recent years, satellite photos have shown the construction of what appear to be hundreds of silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles in Chinese deserts, and the US Department of Defense predicts that China could have about 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if it continues to expand the arsenal at the current exponential pace.

In September, the CNN also revealed how China, along with Russia and the United States, has built new facilities and dug new tunnels at its nuclear test sites in recent years.

“Xi placed great importance on these developments and this attention may have exposed the level of corruption that generated a clean-up effort that had the added benefit of undermining patronage networks that could infringe on Xi's plans and power,” said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations for the U.S. Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center.

“Xi wants qualified people whose loyalty and judgment he trusts.”

Combat implications

The Rocket Force will play a key role in any conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea — two potential flashpoints between the U.S. and China — by leading early strikes on enemy forces and deterring U.S. intervention, according to Schuster.

Given the strategic importance of the force, a key question is whether wide-ranging cleanup would destroy its operations or combat readiness. So far, Xi has left operational-level commanders and staff untouched, Schuster noted.

“Senior leaders have been involved in building the force, but at this point they have probably not been involved in operations and planning,” he said.

While the large-scale cleanup will certainly shake the Rocket Force's morale and place it under greater scrutiny, Char said that overall, “the PLA's combat capabilities have likely not been compromised in any substantial way.”

As part of Xi's military review, “Rocket Force assets have, in fact, become increasingly integrated into the PLA's joint theater command system. Therefore, this means that the PLA's ability to conduct missile strikes, as part of a broader joint campaign, is unlikely to be compromised,” he added.

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, experts say, in the long term, it is crucial that Xi cleans up within the PLA, especially around its weapons systems. If the cleanups result in a more disciplined, effective and loyal fighting force – it could be a victory for Xi.

The poor performance of Russia's military in its war against Ukraine – from shoddy equipment to expired ration packages and deadly tank weaknesses – has served as a stark lesson to Xi and his top generals about the dangers of corruption.

“The cleanup is important because, going forward, he would like to ensure that the PLA Rocket Force has functional lethal equipment on the battlefield,” Char said.

“Tip of the iceberg”

Signs of problems surrounding weapons acquisition were already evident in July. Days before the Rocket Force's surprising leadership change, the Department of Equipment Development ordered a new crackdown on corrupt procurement practices, calling on the public to report tips about questionable activities dating back to October 2017.

The investigation coincided with the period when the department was headed by Li Shangfu, the former defense minister who was removed from office in October after disappearing from public view for months without explanation.

One of Li's deputies in the Equipment Department, Zhang Yulin, was among nine dismissed from the legislature last week.

“(Now) that they have been stripped of their CNP membership, their cases can move to the next stage, which is the military prosecution process,” Char said, adding that the cleanup is far from over. “I'm sure there are more generals whose actions have been investigated. It appears to be just the tip of the iceberg,” he said.

Some agents placed under investigation may not be senior enough to hold seats in the legislature, while others may already be retired.

At the top of analysts' watch list is former Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, who has not been heard from since March last year, when he retired and handed the baton to Li Shangfu. Wei was the inaugural commander of the Rocket Force when it was renewed in late 2015.

When asked about Wei's whereabouts in August, a spokesperson for China's Defense Ministry said the military has “zero tolerance for corruption” and promised to “investigate all cases and crack down on all corrupt officials.”

General Ju Qiansheng, commander of the PLA Strategic Support Force responsible for space and cyber warfare, has also not been seen since the summer.

Ju drew attention after missing a reception in late July to celebrate the 96th anniversary of the founding of the PLA and a reward ceremony for Chinese astronauts in September.

More than a decade since Xi took office, China's most powerful and authoritarian leader in decades is still battling corrupt and disloyal generals and officials – some of them handpicked and promoted by him.

“I think he can remove whoever he wants. But the very fact that he is still firing people speaks volumes about his past poor judgment regarding these personnel appointments,” Char said. “Everything we are seeing now, all the purges, is actually due to China’s centralized one-party system and the fact that there is no public scrutiny that the PLA is subject to.”

Yun Sun, China program director at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, said the purges show that corruption cannot be completely eradicated from the system despite Xi's tireless efforts.

“Power tends to corrupt. Absolute power corrupts absolutely,” she said. “Xi is determined to fight corruption, but corruption is a product of the system he defends. It’s a dead end.”

*With information from Simone McCarthy, from CNN.