Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled a significant change in his stance towards the conflict with Russia. According to an analysis by Lourival Sant’Anna, a specialist in international affairs, for the CNN Prime Time Zelensky is said to be considering accepting a ceasefire and potentially ceding occupied territories to Russia.
This change in position is directly related to the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House. Sant’Anna explains that Zelensky has been in talks with Trump, including a meeting in Florida before the elections and a recent phone call.
Trump’s plan for conflict
With the appointment of General Keith Kellogg as Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, the former American president’s plan for the conflict becomes clearer. The strategy involves forcing both Ukraine and Russia to accept a ceasefire, freezing the conflict at its current position.
Trump’s plan provides that if Ukraine does not accept the ceasefire, all military aid would be withdrawn. On the other hand, if Russia refuses, military assistance to Ukraine would be drastically increased. Sant’Anna describes this as an attempt to “checkmate” both countries.
Zelensky, adapting to this new reality, has signaled his willingness to accept the ceasefire proposal. This stance aims to demonstrate alignment with Trump and avoid being seen as an obstacle to the plan, especially considering the promise of a significant increase in military aid if Russia rejects the agreement.
NATO protection and future prospects
The analyst clarifies that the mention of NATO protection for territories that would remain under Ukrainian control does not mean Ukraine’s immediate accession to the alliance. Instead, the plan envisages monitoring of the conflict line by NATO member countries, such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Poland.
Sant’Anna highlights that the plan contemplates a period of 20 years during which Ukraine would not become a member of NATO, possibly calculating that, in this interval, Vladimir Putin, currently 70 years old, would no longer be in power.
However, the analyst warns that giving in more than that could provoke an internal revolt in Ukraine. Ukrainians, aware of the difficulties of living under Russian rule, strongly resist the idea of handing over territories, especially considering reports of abuses in areas already occupied by Russia.
Sant’Anna concludes that, despite this apparent relaxation in Zelensky’s stance, the prospects for ending the conflict remain uncertain. He cites recent conversations with exiled Russian human rights defenders, who claim that Putin would not have the political conditions to back down at the moment, needing to create a narrative of victory to justify any eventual withdrawal.
This content was originally published in Analysis: Zelensky would accept ceasefire in exchange for protection on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
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