The course of the first cryptocurrency has updated minimums from the beginning of the year below $ 80,000 as a leading indicator for risky assets. This is stated in the QCP Capital report.
As a trigger, experts indicated an interview with US President Donald Trump, in which he showed indifference to the risks of recession.
Despite the reputation of the defender of the stock market, the owner of the White House made a correction-“correction” of the state through a decline in Wall Street.
The QCP Capital noted a decrease in the profitability of US government bonds and the weakening of the American dollar, which is a historically positive factor for risky assets.
Analysts recorded the demand for “distant” calls with “upper” expirations, which signals readiness for quick rebound from support at $ 75,000.
Matrixport believes that optimism regarding the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market in the near future is unjustified. They drew attention to the slowdown of the influx of funds in stablecoins as a leading indicator of mood improvement.
Relapsion on the threshold?
The day before, JPMorgan increased the likelihood of recession from 30% to 40% “due to US extreme policy.”
In Goldman Sachs, we revised the corresponding parameter from 15% to 20%. Experts are ready to increase the assessment in the event of “commitment by the Trump administration with their policy even in the face of much worst data.”
Anthony Pliano saw in the actions of the US President the desire to achieve from the Fed to reduce the key rate through the formation of increased uncertainty.
According to Cme Fedwatch, the chances of mitigating the monetary policy at a meeting in May are estimated at 48%. A month ago, the indicator was 21.9%.
Technical picture
The Kobeissi Letter allowed a wave of turning short positions in risky assets after reaching the level of extreme fear.
Researcher Timothy Peterson calculated that since 1990 the Vix fear index has been higher than 11% of the time.
The chances of the rebound can strengthen the bull divergence in the RSI on a four -hour timeframe, according to the trader under the nickname SAS ABBE.
The Rekt Capital analyst recommended following the oscillator signals on the daily graph to confirm the sustainable return to the growth trajectory.
Levery leaching
Cryptoquant noted a sharp drop in open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, which indicates “leaching Leveridge” and chances of market stabilization.
The total indicator decreased by $ 1.37 billion – of which $ 668 million were in digital gold, and $ 700 million for the second in capitalization of cryptocurrency.
The head of the Youuhodler markets Ruslan Lienkh expressed concern about the current correction. The specialist noted that she can develop into a medium -term bearish trend.
Earlier, the former head of Bitmex, Arthur Hayes did not rule out a decrease in bitcoin to $ 70,000 before recovery.
CRYPTOQUANT KEO Ju made a long consolidation of the asset in a wide range (for example, $ 75,000-100,000), as was observed in early 2024 before returning to growth.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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